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goldminingXpert (29.65)

Bulls Don't Read My Posts

Recs

37

June 12, 2009 – Comments (15)

Checklist wrote this:

GMX posts that rising interest rates inevitable from the rise in treasury yields, said rise inevitable due to the imminent demise of the value of the dollar.

I have said nothing even similar to what is quoted in bold. Please read what I type before claiming you know what I think. I predict the dollar will rise in value over the next few year due to the fact that the rest of the world is in worse shape than we are. The dollar will be debased more slowly than the GBP, EUR, JPY and others, though the USD will likely underperform the AUD, CAD, and NZD. I've been convinced for awhile that bulls don't actually read my posts as I get lumped into the buy gold, guns and bomb shelter camp even though I'm no permabear. Checklist confirms my suspicions. Hey bulls--I don't post every day just to see my name in digital ink--you could try reading me before bashing me.

 

15 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On June 12, 2009 at 2:59 AM, checklist34 (99.73) wrote:

life will go on, it will.  :)

I'll give you a rec for my transgression. 

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#2) On June 12, 2009 at 3:06 AM, goldminingXpert (29.65) wrote:

Checklist, here's a link to one of my blogs:

Strong Dollar Is Back

If you've read any of my long series of posts that were skeptical or openly critical of gold last year, you'd see that I've frequently been a dollar bull. That doesn't mean I think the dollar is a great currency--I don't--but I don't think it is headed for the gutter in the immediate future either.

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#3) On June 12, 2009 at 3:33 AM, Donnernv (< 20) wrote:

GMX:

Don't you have some kind of real life, outside of these blogs?  Go buy a pizza, get laid, study for your tests.  Get a real life.

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#4) On June 12, 2009 at 3:38 AM, goldminingXpert (29.65) wrote:

Don't you have some kind of real life

I'm just a cyborg. My programmers told me something of a great crash of May '09 but they seem to have been wrong. Maybe they meant a crash on a different planet?

It's 1:37AM local time...what exactly else would I be doing now during a bout of insomnia?

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#5) On June 12, 2009 at 4:31 AM, checklist34 (99.73) wrote:

i haven't read anybodies blog thats older than a few months.

thanks for the link i'll check it out. 

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#6) On June 12, 2009 at 4:40 AM, checklist34 (99.73) wrote:

also, I don't know if i'm very bullish for the short term (few months) and i think the S&P isn't far from fair value which I estimate to be 1000-1100, maybe closer to 1000, given the overall economic conditions and all of that.

I'm still bullish long term on many stocks, although the magnitude of how cheap they are is dramatically diminished in the last 4 months, and the number of stocks that are really cheap are also dramatically diminished. 

I could see the market clearing 1000 in Q2 or Q3 earnings seasons because inventories simply can't keep dropping forever and that implies a bounce in industrial activitiy at some point.  I could also see a situation where the market is expecting that bounce and doesn't react much to it.

Long term in general, I'm still very bullish.  The S&P will absolutely hit a new high some day, etc. 

I will be bullish if we go back to that 880ish resistance point again, and I'll get so bullish it'll scare my advisor if we get close to 800. 

But I think today I just don't know. 

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#7) On June 12, 2009 at 7:31 AM, Barebonez (94.27) wrote:

you guys have any pizza left?

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#8) On June 12, 2009 at 9:51 AM, MustBNuts (32.97) wrote:

"I don't post every day just to see my name in digital ink"

BS

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#9) On June 12, 2009 at 10:46 AM, Schmacko (46.20) wrote:

"It's 1:37AM local time...what exactly else would I be doing now during a bout of insomnia? "

HBO on demand is your friend.

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#10) On June 12, 2009 at 11:06 AM, StopLaughing (< 20) wrote:

Right now the $ is bouncing up off of support and gold/oil etc are dropping.

The hyper inflation will have to wait for another day.

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#11) On June 12, 2009 at 11:48 AM, helicopterfool (93.09) wrote:

to wit - consistently GMX hasnt been bullish on gold either.  Keep up the great posts.

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#12) On June 12, 2009 at 3:16 PM, TigerPack1 (88.09) wrote:

Fair enough, we can agree the U.S. Dollar is not toast quite yet.

Perhaps the situation will change in 2010, but until then a flat to higher U.S. Dollar will catch the MAJORITY of stock market particiapants off guard, and create consequences for their portfolios that are at this point, not even contemplated!

Based on your strong U.S. Dollar, weak stock market position, I would assume you are a big believer in deflation or disinflation trends continuing.  Is this a fair statement?

How can you, therefore, argue interest rates will skyrocket from here?  Am I missing something?  I don't think all your arguments and positions on the various markets fit together very well...

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#13) On June 12, 2009 at 3:27 PM, TigerPack1 (88.09) wrote:

Disinflation or deflation trends in the past ARE HIGHLY CORRELATED with strong real returns, especially when including dividend payments in the U.S. stock market.

Even the stock returns from the mid-1930s to the mid-1940s look much better, when you adjust for the lack of inflation and the near 5% dividend yields annually.

I own many blue-chip stocks today earning 4%-5%, that will raise the payments each year from here.  If I get just 5% in annual price appreciation, that works out to 9%-10% real returns if the U.S. Dollar rises and inflation is lacking for some time.  That is CONSIDERABLY BETTER than the risk-adjusted, real returns available from bonds, or bank savings, or even many real estate investments you could make.  Why would you be negative on stocks in such an environment? 

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#14) On June 12, 2009 at 3:36 PM, outoffocus (23.56) wrote:

Tiger,

It doesnt make sense to you because you, like many other people on this site look at the situation as either inflation OR deflation. I've heard very few people on this site mention stagflation. I have always believed and will continue to believe that the US will experience an extended period of stagflation.  We'll have inflation in commodities (a weaker dollar will send money flying to commodities) and continued deflation in overleveraged assets (such as housing).  The overabundance of Treasuries (at outrageously low rates) will put pressure on the dollar and bond yields.

As far as stocks are concerned, alot of stocks with bad fundamentals rose to far too fast (see Palm).  I just cannot see those stocks continuing to rise.  But then again, I'm trying to rationalize an irrational market.   

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#15) On June 12, 2009 at 7:35 PM, abitare (61.26) wrote:

The dollar will be debased more slowly than the GBP, EUR, JPY and others, though the USD will likely underperform the AUD, CAD, and NZD.

aligned, but not 100% sure. depends on how much stupidity comes out of DC

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