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Valyooo (38.19)

Buy AIB?



September 30, 2010 – Comments (6) | RELATED TICKERS: C , AIBYY

I don't remember exactly because I was an extreme newbie when it happened (still a newbie but not as much)

But I seem to recall when C was nationalized, it tanked on the news, but then slowly went up and up and up until around 4 dollars then it just fluctuated.


Is this true?  If so, look for AIB to be on the move starting next week

6 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On September 30, 2010 at 10:20 AM, Seansonfire (42.51) wrote:

I bought C at $1.64 a share back right around the time they were bailed out.  So yeah it did.

I am bullish on the entire European Banking Sector for this reason and the reason that I think most of the Banks will survive this crissis in one way or another (even with a bailout).  And they are trading extremely cheap levels.

 I like NBG, AIB, and IRE.

Also you could put STD in that group, but they haven't traded down that much recently.

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#2) On September 30, 2010 at 10:21 AM, rkevans69 (< 20) wrote:

Added a few shares today.  The ADR was trading within a few percent of the price of new equity.  Company will be stronger after the capital raising, despite being 'nationalized.'

Short Term -- I'm not too concerned about the name of the majority shareholder.  It's not me, so nothing really changes. 

Five year horizon -- I see this as a survivor.

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#3) On September 30, 2010 at 12:37 PM, irishstock (< 20) wrote:

As somebody who lives in Ireland and has been following the banking crisis here for two years, AIB is not a stock to take a gamble on.  It still has to recapitalise (to the tune of 10.4 bn euro, although it is worth less than 600 mn euro!), so government ownership of around 90% of the bank is guaranteed.  The market is going to be inundated with around 10 billion new shares in AIB over the coming weeks as part of a rights issue and re-capitalisation, which the Irish government is probably going to end up with most of.  This is a totally different story to IRE, which has already been re-capitalised and has good prospects.  A lot of the information surrounding AIB in the US that I've read is really inaccurate. 

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#4) On September 30, 2010 at 1:50 PM, cvcvcvc (< 20) wrote:

I sold my position in AIB a few months ago building an even larger position in IRE. Irishstock is right on the money. AIB has yet to recapitalise unlike IRE. Look at the disjunction in the market response today as to you will continue to see AIB and IRE in relation to each other. I do not believe AIB will be nationalized. It will survive and do very well years from now, but I would not want to be a shareholder right now.  

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#5) On September 30, 2010 at 2:13 PM, ibh1111 (< 20) wrote:

I would like to believe that some of the news is accurate. They did sell the Polish bank didn't they for about 2.9 bn? But your right when you say they are down but down and out? Probably not if they are Irish. It's worth a go and they can't be any worse than Citibank

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#6) On September 30, 2010 at 4:12 PM, irishstock (< 20) wrote:

But they are worse than Citibank.  They need to raise 10.4 billion euro and they are worth less than 600 million euro.  They sold the Polish bank and they will sell the US stake of M&T, but there is still a 5.4 billion euro shortfall, which means that AIB will have a rights issue which will dilute current shareholdings almost entirely.  The Irish government has confirmed that AIB will be 90% nationalised at least!  This is not a theory.  It is happening and has been confirmed, yet US investors are still propping up the pre-rights share price.  It's crazy behaviour.  What I read every day in Ireland is so much different to the US perspective on this share.  If you need to buy an Irish bank, please buy IRE instead, which has recapitalised (luckily before the Greek debacle) and is on the path to recovery, but also at a low entry level.

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