Buy and Hope Investing
This title comes from Big Picture who has reposted John Mauldin's latest. A super worthwhile read...
You read this stuff and the layers... Within this is a very good statement:
are in an economic period unlike any other we have faced. I think we are likely
to have a long, slow recovery after the recession ends some time (hopefully
early) next year. However, to suggest that corporate earnings are going to show
the same type of resilience in 2010-2012 that they have after every other
recession since WWII is ignoring the macroeconomic picture surrounding the
potential for earnings growth. “Any starting conditions we select in the
historical data cannot replicate the starting conditions at any other moment
because the preceding events in the two cases are never identical.”
are in a synchronized global recession. Yes, we will recover, but the causes
are not those of the typical business-cycle recession. We are seeing massive
debt deflation, deleveraging on a scale never witnessed, a financial industry
that has to be rebuilt, and a housing industry that is reeling all over the
world. We created a lot of excess in a number of industries. We decimated the
savings of a generation that was hoping to retire soon, and now will have to
work longer and save more.
is not a typical recession. And for any analyst, writer, or pundit to trot out
past historical data to demonstrate that the stock market is going to rebound
at such and such a time and at such and such a pace simply ignores the fact
that the future is unlikely to look like the past for at least the next 2-3
years. We are in a brand-new world, macro-economically speaking.
That was quoted in Mauldin from Peter’s Financial Times.
I suppose I didn't get caught in this mess because I saw what was happening here as very different then the past. And I have spend a lot of time thinking about why I have gotten so much bad advice and why so many belief's I was taught turned out to be wrong. They made things challenging for me, but ultimately it was a complete lack of seeing that what happened in the past could not continue and just thinking it through the reasons scream to be heard.
Practically all of the chiding I got over my position was justified with a justification that we've seen this in the past but huge things that are different were ignored.
In a way, I am finally grateful for the huge hits I took in the past. They enabled me to be independent and to call a spade a spade and speak out against what "the experts" and analysts were saying. They screwed up with me in the past and I studied why.
Still watching here....