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goldminingXpert (29.40)

Buy Puts Tomorrow--Crash coming.

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13

September 30, 2008 – Comments (10) | RELATED TICKERS: DIA , SPY , IWM

I called Monday's crash Sunday night: http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/ViewPost.aspx?bpid=92110&t=01008631960540474609 I regretfully must call another crash... Congress' insistance on reviving the bailout nonsense will send shockwaves of terror across the bond and currency markets, thus crashing equities again. 

As soon as the bill is voted for, short as much stuff as you can. The market is set to roll again and bust through S&P 1070. We're in the eye of the storm, everything looked calm and quiet today, but as soon as the bailout is proven to be a big non-event--it doesn't fix anything--the market will resume crashing. October puts should work, but if you're a more conservative speculator, but November puts. S&P 110 puts, IWM 65 puts, and DIA 100 puts appear to be the optimal strike prices... of course calculate the greeks tomorrow before jumping in. Wait for the vote, we should get the best entry for puts and shorts in the few minutes following the vote before the bond market implodes into a pile of radioactive waste...at which point the equity market will begin its big crash. Be ready, we're about to get the shorting opportunity of the year--if you though Monday was fun, wait until you see October!

Disclosure: long XLF calls, short GLD, TLT puts, long TXN calls, long BWP calls, long WNR calls, and short GG, mostly in cash... however, as soon as the senate votes tomorrow, I'll be dumping the XLF calls and going in hard on IWM and DIA puts.

10 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On September 30, 2008 at 11:36 PM, awallejr (85.49) wrote:

No offense, but I sure hope you are wrong.  While I think tomorrow will be a down day, I wouldn't short just over the Senate vote since we would still have the House vote due probably Thursday or Friday.

And yeah, I still suspect the pressure is downward even if the plan passes, but it might quicken the recovery from happening in 2010 (which predict) to sometime in 2009.

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#2) On October 01, 2008 at 12:21 AM, UltraContrarian (31.15) wrote:

Why are you convinced the bill passing the Senate would make the debt market seize up when failing in the House did exactly the same thing?

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#3) On October 01, 2008 at 12:46 AM, awallejr (85.49) wrote:

Guessing he believes in the "buy on rumor sell on news" theory (which actually does have historic merit).

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#4) On October 01, 2008 at 1:37 AM, Gingerbreadman55 (30.12) wrote:

The Jist: *as I see it*

Senate passes the bill, which still must pass house. People get hope - things go up. However the credit is gone; the perfect storm converges before it gets to house OR the house says ZOMG MORE SPENDING WITH TAX CUTS FAILLLLLLL

then we crash. Either way I also called monday's action AND the failure of bailout plan V.1.0, and I agree with the OP - except I wouldn't go short on gold and silver.

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#5) On October 01, 2008 at 4:30 AM, jesusfreakinco (28.81) wrote:

Not sure why you are picking on gold and silver.  It seems the central banks have the dollar under control, but I see gold as the next great hedge.  You think they can control gold prices as well to give perception of inflation not being an issue?

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#6) On October 01, 2008 at 9:28 AM, degaston (99.56) wrote:

The Senate is going to vote on the bill tonight because they don't want to have the market popping up/down every time a Senator's electronic vote is recorded.

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#7) On October 01, 2008 at 10:08 AM, goldminingXpert (29.40) wrote:

dollar is rising today strongly, gold should be falling. Stocks are doing their part.

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#8) On October 01, 2008 at 10:46 AM, jesusfreakinco (28.81) wrote:

GoldminingXpert,

Dollars rise HAS to be supported by central bank intervention - no other reason for it.  The longterm fundies are the dollar continue to deteriorate even when compared to other economies.

Thoughts?

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#9) On October 01, 2008 at 10:50 AM, degaston (99.56) wrote:

The Senate is going to vote on the bill tonight because they don't want to have the market popping up/down every time a Senator's electronic vote is recorded.

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#10) On October 01, 2008 at 10:53 AM, goldminingXpert (29.40) wrote:

dollar is up because Europe's economy is in worse shape than ours. This trend will continue... Spain, Italy and France's economies are unspeakably horrific.

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