Calling a short term top
OK, here we are, DJIA 9206, S+P 988, Nasdaq 1950.
When I've had strong sentiment in the past about macro market trends, I've liked to post it to this blog. I'm batting 3 for 3 on these predictions over the past few years.
I think we're topped out here. This is not the same top I called back in October of 07, when I said that a 20% drop was coming (and was roundly ridiculed - how could markets ever drop that much?) before we saw another 5% gain.
By a top here, I mean a plateau, and I am again going to propose some victory conditions: Jan 1., 2010 will arrive before we see a 10% rise from these levels. (I suspect we are going to see some amount of decline from here before then, but I do not feel like I know how much. I think the Alstry 9.09 scenario is at least possible.)
To keep it verifiable, here it is, in provable/disprovable black or white:
The markets will not reach DJIA 10126, S+P 1087, or NASD 1145 before Jan 1, 2010.