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Calling a short term top

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August 18, 2009 – Comments (4)

OK, here we are, DJIA 9206, S+P 988, Nasdaq 1950. 

When I've had strong sentiment in the past about macro market trends, I've liked to post it to this blog.  I'm batting 3 for 3 on these predictions over the past few years. 

I think we're topped out here.  This is not the same top I called back in October of 07, when I said that a 20% drop was coming (and was roundly ridiculed - how could markets ever drop that much?) before we saw another 5% gain.

By a top here, I mean a plateau, and I am again going to propose some victory conditions: Jan 1., 2010 will arrive before we see a 10% rise from these levels.   (I suspect we are going to see some amount of decline from here before then, but I do not feel like I know how much.  I think the Alstry 9.09 scenario is at least possible.)

To keep it verifiable, here it is, in provable/disprovable black or white:

The markets will not reach DJIA 10126, S+P 1087, or NASD 1145 before Jan 1, 2010. 

4 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On August 18, 2009 at 12:52 PM, TMFJake (77.86) wrote:

I remember your October 2007 call very well. And, FWIW, I think you're probably correct on this one too.  Fool On!

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#2) On August 25, 2009 at 12:01 PM, ikkyu2 (99.32) wrote:

Thanks, Jake.

I guess no one's paying very close attention here.   NASD 1950, plus 10 %, equals 2140, not 1145.  So that's what that should have said up there.

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#3) On September 23, 2009 at 11:22 AM, ikkyu2 (99.32) wrote:

As I post this, the NASD is 2143, so I was wrong.

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#4) On October 17, 2009 at 1:46 AM, ikkyu2 (99.32) wrote:

The S+P hit 1087+ this week.  So I was wrong on that too.  Dow's topped out at 10,126 intraday or thereabouts at the moment.

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