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starbucks4ever (97.89)

Can gold rise to $20,000 an ounce as DWI predicts?

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September 18, 2009 – Comments (26)

Yes, it can. But not in this century. And not to $20,000. And not per ounce. And not gold. And not rise.

26 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On September 18, 2009 at 4:55 PM, RonChapmanJr (33.19) wrote:

They should ban that guy from CAPS.

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#2) On September 18, 2009 at 4:59 PM, wasmick (< 20) wrote:

Of course it can.  After all some dude on the internet says so.

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#3) On September 18, 2009 at 5:18 PM, AvianFlu (21.31) wrote:

zloj:

That was hilarious! Rec

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#4) On September 18, 2009 at 6:02 PM, whereaminow (< 20) wrote:

It is true that gold will go that high, if by true you mean false.

Funny post zloj.

But what if we phrased the question differently.  Can the dollar fall to 1/20,000th of an ounce of gold?

David in Qatar

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#5) On September 18, 2009 at 6:28 PM, chk999 (99.97) wrote:

Can the dollar fall to 1/20,000th of an ounce of gold?

 Sure. At 3% inflation compounded, it takes about 100 years from current valuations.

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#6) On September 18, 2009 at 6:39 PM, whereaminow (< 20) wrote:

Well then! Since 3% is the conservatve estimate of inflation, zloj has been vanquished!  It will happen this century after all.

All has DWI!!!!

(somewhat in jest, somewhat in sadness.)

David in Qatar

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#7) On September 18, 2009 at 6:42 PM, starbucks4ever (97.89) wrote:

But 100 years from now it will already be the next century :)

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#8) On September 18, 2009 at 6:54 PM, whereaminow (< 20) wrote:

it's gonna be close.  We have 91 years.  Quick, someone with a calculator figure out what inflation has to run at to hit $20,000.

I hate losing an argument!  The more stupid the argument, the more important it is to my self esteem.

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#9) On September 18, 2009 at 7:08 PM, portefeuille (99.66) wrote:

a * (1 + x)^t = 20000 -> x = (20000/a)^(1/t) - 1 = ca. 0.0337 -> ca. 3.37%, where a = 1006.15, t = 90.28 (depends on the time zone, hehe).

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#10) On September 18, 2009 at 7:09 PM, starbucks4ever (97.89) wrote:

whereaminow,

It's easy. 72 divided by 3 gives you 24 years in which something growing at 3% a year will double. So gold should reach $16,000 approximately by 2105, which gives me a small but comfortable margin of safety :)

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#11) On September 18, 2009 at 7:12 PM, portefeuille (99.66) wrote:

(and assumes that this century ends on 12/31/2099)

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#12) On September 18, 2009 at 7:15 PM, portefeuille (99.66) wrote:

((which would suggest that the "first" century started on 01/01/00, which is slightly "controversial"))

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#13) On September 18, 2009 at 7:24 PM, Sozurmama (23.36) wrote:

at 3.39% it would hit 20,000 in 90 years

but this discounts a MASSIVE DEFLATIONARY DEPRESSION!!!

PREPARE!!!!!

:)

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#14) On September 18, 2009 at 7:25 PM, whereaminow (< 20) wrote:

This is too confusing.  I would rather accept defeat than engage in any more math.  Thanks to chk999 and port for the assist.

zloj, you may have won the battle but... well I don't know, it's time for some jack daniels.

David in the not-dry-Qatar :)

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#15) On September 18, 2009 at 7:32 PM, starbucks4ever (97.89) wrote:

But really, just make some adjustments in the expected rate of inflation, and the tide of battle could yet turn in your favor :)

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#16) On September 18, 2009 at 9:46 PM, ChrisGraley (29.74) wrote:

I wonder what they would call Dollar Stores?

Would it be "Massive amounts of dollars stores" ?

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#17) On September 18, 2009 at 9:57 PM, rd80 (97.08) wrote:

I wonder what they would call Dollar Stores?

K-Bucks?

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#18) On September 18, 2009 at 10:10 PM, russiangambit (29.40) wrote:

By the way, IMF announced that they are going to start selling gold. They gave some lame excuse. But the reality is that they want to stop the rise of the gold. They do it every time , actually. So, zloj is right, gold is not going anywhere.

Let me see, where the inflationists are to go? Gold trade is over, CFTC is cracking down on oil "speculators". As I said , there is going to be a general crack down on evil speculators, all in the ill concived attempt to hide the results of money printing from general popultion. Chinese farmers are buying copper. May be not a bad idea.

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#19) On September 18, 2009 at 11:22 PM, cthomas1017 (98.42) wrote:

port, centuries don't end with a last year of '99.  Centuries end on the last day of '00, thus 12/31/2100.  This works against David in not-so-dry-Quatar.

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#20) On September 18, 2009 at 11:29 PM, ChrisGraley (29.74) wrote:

russiangambit I still think the big play is the same as it ever was...

 

In silver! :p

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#21) On September 18, 2009 at 11:47 PM, Alex1963 (28.82) wrote:

"I wonder what they would call Dollar Stores?

Would it be "Massive amounts of dollars stores" ?"

How 'bout "Stimulus Stores" or maybe "The QE":) 

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#22) On September 19, 2009 at 12:11 AM, starbucks4ever (97.89) wrote:

Silver has more utility than gold, but it would be way cheaper than it is now it it were priced according to utility.  

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#23) On September 19, 2009 at 1:06 AM, ChrisGraley (29.74) wrote:

#22) On September 19, 2009 at 12:11 AM, zloj (98.55) wrote:

Silver has more utility than gold, but it would be way cheaper than it is now it it were priced according to utility. 

 

And if it was priced to scarcity and not total fiction, it would be priced at 10 times what it is now.

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#24) On September 19, 2009 at 5:54 AM, kaskoosek (37.09) wrote:

Why are we assuming such a low inflation rate? 3%?????

 

Please. 

 

The value of gold will not rise relative to other commodities. If inflation expectation is high, I would actually assume that gold will lag other commodities, because it is being bid up now.

Food can not be bid up now, because it is a crappy store of value. 

 

So even if gold reaches 20000$, I would assume that it will buy less products.  

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#25) On September 19, 2009 at 12:52 PM, Teacherman1 (28.84) wrote:

I am up almost 3000% on gold. Of course I bought it almost 40 years ago. I guess it's all in the timing.

Perhaps DWI should be changed to PWI. (Posting while intoxicated). That was mean so I apologize, but it was kind of funny. At least I thought so.

Have a nice weekend. 

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#26) On September 24, 2009 at 1:44 PM, chk999 (99.97) wrote:

Why are we assuming such a low inflation rate? 3%?????

It was easy to calculate.

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