January 14, 2009
– Comments (14)
We have wiped out all the gains that took 7 weeks to build in 1 1/2 weeks.
I just hate myself for buying into the fake rally.
Now my caps rating is down to 1.84 from 98+ just 2 weeks ago.
This is a nightmare in caps and in real life.
Is SRS tracking SPG, VNO, DDR, GGP? Besides other real estate? If so maybe I Should buy some since it went to $200+ last time we hit Nov. 21 lows.
Anyone with answers please reply cause its at $66.89 and I don't want to miss it if it goes $100-$200 again.
SRS's goal is to move double inverse of the DJUSRE. Most of the companies you mentioned make up part of the DJUSRE. I don't think it will get back to $200+ again, but I do think $100+ is a possibility.
SRS target 75 today or tomorrow and then a collapse back into the 50s.
GMX, do you have a target on FAZ?
Sorry to be a little pop psych, but there's no need to hate yourself if you can learn from your mistakes. Angry with yourself, o.k. And the bite of real life does make it worse. But if you've won a little self-knowledge you're doing o.k. I thought I was a smart guy and would kill CAPS but then drifted steadily slowly downwards for months. Then I reevaluated my ideas and have been doing pretty well since. But at this point, I have a healthy degree of skepticisim about my own short-term success (which all by itself will make me a better investor, I think).
1) Did you make yourself vulnerable to crashing by making too big a sector bet or macro prediction/guess? (For CAPS purposes, I also think it helps to balance out some of the ups and downs if you always have a decent proportion of shorts to go with your longs. At least 1/4 of your picks, I would estimate. Harder to do in real life though.)
2) Are you actually right but being inpatient because this kind of volatility is just part of the choices you made? (But see above: The amount of volatility you can stand psychologically (and financially!) is a big part of your investment choices. The right idea can be the wrong choice if it carries a level of volatility that doesn't suit your needs.)
Reevaluate your plan, patiently turn things around, and I'll see you back in the 90s (if I can hang around there myself).
Does anyone hav ea feel for POT, it is coming down as well. I wonder if 60 is going to be the low again? It went up to 83 before it started falling again.
If you're a long term buy-and-hold value investor, these times are fantastic and you're excited about the multitude of strong companies that are on sale as well as a clearer picture of who's been "swimming naked." If you're only focused on short term losses and volatility, well then, I would probably recommend Yeungling Lager, the best thing to ever come out of Pennsylvania.
I own a little FAZ but got my finger on the sell button, can't imagine it getting past 56 .The financials are so oversold, it's going to be a bloodbath for financial shorters when we reverse north.
take advantage of the lows the market is just responding to 4th quarter data it will recover in a few weeks remember rule 1 dont loose money
You sound like me, but I'm leaning towards holding FAZ at least until Citigroup announces their earnings on January 22nd and go from there.
Don't be worried about the short term volatility,invest for the long term.
I agree with post #10