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SuperGrowth237 (< 20)

Cancer Immunotherapy Index- 116% Annualized Returns- MNTR

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April 14, 2010 – Comments (9) | RELATED TICKERS: CVM , DNDN , AGEN

Has anyone heard of Mentor Capital (MNTR.pk)? They invested $2 million for a 20% stake in a private company Quantum Immunologics which has a cancer vaccination for breat cancer in a Phase II trial. They then launched the Cancer Immunotherapy Index, which holds many different companies all developing cancer vaccinations (including DNDN). Recently MNTR's share price has been $1 and some people have been saying its like a chance to buy DNDN stock for $1 a share as opposed to nearly $40 a share.

The index has also returned over 100% annualized returns since inception late last year. 100% returns are amazing and don't see too unlikely given the huge explosive potential of the biotech industry in general and especially cancer treatment related stocks. Is the index really a good investment vehicle for cancer immunotherapy stocks though?

 Does anyone have an opinion about MNTR and their index? I have been looking at them and it seems like a great investment but also somewhat risky. You can look into the index and their financials at their website:

www.mentorcapital.com

 It's a shame because this company seems like it could be an amazing investment opportunity but because it's on the pink sheets no one is talking about it and CAPS won't even give it a look. There are some things to be concerned about, like if mentor really has enough capital and if the QI investment will pay off, but there is tremendous upside. Especially becuase it has flown under the radar so far.

 Recently the stock price has begun to reflect the absurd returns of the index portfolio and has jumped over 60% this week. I'd love for a discussion about MNTR to start up so investors and can learn more about this opportunity and some of the risks can be laid out more transparent. I'll try to get UltraLong to comment and check it out, as well as some other premier Fools.

 

Please post your thoughts on MNTR, their cancer immunotherpay index, the private company QI or cancer vaccination therapy in general.

 

Thanks,

SuperGrowth237

9 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On April 14, 2010 at 10:15 PM, ThankHedgens (67.73) wrote:

Another great post of a cancer vaccination company...not heard too much about this one either though it could easily be a 10 bagger if it's the real deal. The index seems like it would be a can't miss strategy

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#2) On April 14, 2010 at 10:19 PM, Newmanium79 (< 20) wrote:

I'll be following this blog...Would love to hear UL's opinion..

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#3) On April 14, 2010 at 11:00 PM, ThankHedgens (67.73) wrote:

I agree, let's hear UL

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#4) On April 14, 2010 at 11:11 PM, SuperGrowth237 (< 20) wrote:

UL has been asked to weigh in and hopefully we'll hear from him soon. In the meantime post your own thoughts on MNTR and follow for more updates!

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#5) On April 15, 2010 at 12:06 AM, Option1307 (29.90) wrote:

This basically sums up how I feel about MNTR,

The  MNTR  shares  at  current price  levels  represent  exciting  speculative prospects to risk oriented investors seeking material capital gains potential.

That was taken directly from their own website, yep, speculation at best!

I'm having trouble finding a lot of financial information about MNTR in the quick checking I've done, but her is what I know.

1) The index has rallied some ~100% in the time the overall market rallied ~40%, impressive yes, but every small cap has been rallying. So, I guess I'm questioning if this less than a one full year return is enough to gauge this index by. I say no.

2)While the companies look promising and all have interesting drugs in various trial phases, I'm nor seeing a lot of actual drugs on themarket. No drug approval equals no revenue.

3)MNTR has very little liquidity, not my cup of tea b/c small amounts of money can drastically change the stock price either way.

4) The index has rallied hugely, yet MNTR has barely moved since the July 10th inception. If you believe in the index, I'd be much more comfotable with playing the index than via MNTR. I realize this is the ebst we can do, but it still is not ideal IMO.

As much as I'd love to see these drugs succeed and come to market, the reality of it is that most will experience problems going through FDA approval and ultimately fail. That is the reality of new drugs. Everything looks great up front on paper, but running the actual trial is a whole different game.

I'm not saying this is a terrible idea, and may be worth a gamble, but I really think it is rather speculative. Show me profits/revenue and then I'll be all over it!

 

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#6) On April 15, 2010 at 12:19 AM, SuperGrowth237 (< 20) wrote:

"Show me profits/revenue and then I'll be all over it!"

 Haha yeah and so will everyone else. That's the name of the game in biotech isn't it? Get in before profits gauranteed if you wanna get big returns. 

 Not saying I don't agree with your analysis. It does seem incredible difficult to get any financial information on MNTR but at the same time the upside is so tempting. At a current price of $1.5 if even just one of the companies in its index has success (like DNDN) it could easily be a 10 bagger and maybe even more.

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#7) On April 15, 2010 at 12:25 AM, SuperGrowth237 (< 20) wrote:

Also Option1307 MNTR is the only way to invest in QI, Quantum Immunologics. What do you think about their value specifically? I know that's even more difficult because they are a private company but how do these trails look to you:

 QI Breast Cancer Vaccinations FDA Trials

 The preliminary data in the II stage trial is due May 2010! That could be a potentially huge catalyst right? Anything that indicates a delay or negative result to you?

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#8) On April 15, 2010 at 1:04 AM, TMFUltraLong (99.96) wrote:

I'll second Option1307 thats its basically a terrible, risky play right here because outside of Dendreon none of the companies in their index have a proven product. I thought that index actually returned minus 116% when it was first posted. I wouldnt touch that with a 10 foot pole!

UltraLong

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#9) On April 15, 2010 at 1:08 AM, Option1307 (29.90) wrote:

it could easily be a 10 bagger and maybe even more.

I mainly agree; however, MNTR has not yet "tracked" the index the last 8/10 months since it's inception. So what is to say that it will start tracking it better going forward?

What do you think about their value specifically?

As you mentioned it's a private company so it's jard to gather financial data, that and I'm way lazy right now :) But let's just logic through this for a bit shall we.

The research and patents have mainly been generated and are owned by the University of South Alabama it appears. While this is good for the medical school etc. it tells me that there isn't gonig to be unlimited funding to get through these clinical trials. And let me tell you, FDA approval is expensive! So any small hiccup in the timeline can cause serious problems.

They must be running low/out of cash as it is b/c they essentially recruited MNTR to fund the Phase I/II clinical trial. Why else do you allow an outside investor snag 20% of your "wonderdrug" company unless you were totally broke? This again tells me that any small problem with the timeline will be potentially disastorous.

The science behind their product does look impressive and is actually really interesting. I will ceretainly be looking into it more later. However, with that being said, there are lots and lots of companies that have "valid" science. But, as I said before, jsut b/c your science/concept is theoretical and/or correct, doesn't mean that this will translate into actual results in the real world.

Everything appears to be going smoothly, and it looks like they should report favorable results soon with the preliminary data, but it really is a crap shoot. Nobody really knows what the FDA will say. If all goes well, this would definitely give them a quick boost; however, keep in mind that it will still be years before any drug of theirs comes to market, literally years.

No drug equals what? That's right boys and girls, no revenue and no profit!

Again, an interesting company and MNTR might be worth a stab here to try and catch some good news, but just be aware that you are esentially just buying speculation.

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