### CAPS 'accuracy', how calculated

May 12, 2007
– Comments (7)

I sent the following to the good Fools™ as a feature request:

With regard to 'accuracy', a number of players (wcwhiner prominent among them) have been pointing out that by sitting on picks like a hawk and 'harvesting' them as soon as they are worth +5.01, then re-picking them, the accuracy stats can be artificially inflated.

If I pick MGM to outperform once and the pick is worth +65, I get an accuracy point for 1 accurate pick. The guy who picks MGM to outperform 13 times over the same period can get credited with 13 accurate picks, but he's added no more information to the CAPS universe than I have.

There's an easy - and statistically valid - way to fix this. For every stock in the CAPS universe that a player has ever made a pick on, he is eligible for 1 "accuracy point." If the total sum of all his picks' scores on that stock (current and ended) is greater than zero, he gets the point, as he was "right" (weighted) more than he was "wrong." If they are not, he does not get it.

The number of accuracy points is divided by the total number of stocks the player has ever picked to get an accuracy percentage; that percentage can then form the basis for the current accuracy percentile calculation, same as now.

This would eliminate gaming the system, while not fundamentally changing the incentives to make accurate picks and to contribute valid information to the CAPS statisical universe.