CAPS Champion of the World Contest: UPDATE
We're midway through the first quarter of our Global Gains CAPS Champion of the World contest, which means we're far along enough to start making some observations, but not so far along that it's not worth your time to enter. So what are you waiting for? Enter here now.
The recent stock market declines have drastically reshaped the leader board and emerging market bulls have been hit hard. My own portfolio of longs and shorts have moved up more than 25 places to 22nd overall, though that's still well out of the top 5, so why am I talking about myself?
But before I do get to the to new overall leaders, I wanted to recap the six official GG team picks thus far and give you an update on how they've fared (so you know whether or not to listen to us in the future). They are...
#1 Short Naspers (NPSNY.PK) (5/14/09)
This pick is basically flat, though if you picked it when I told you to, you're 1.6 points in the red. No worries, though, the thesis remains intact, Tencent remains incredibly overvalued, and you should be able to scoop up points on this one over the long term.
#2 Short AU Optronics (5/21/09)
This one has been a success thus far since AUO has declined nearly 15% against a flat market, netting you 15 points. You're welcome.
#3 Long China Biotics (5/28/09)
Not a huge winner, but China Biotics is up 1% against a flat market, good for 1 postive point. But it's held up better than many of its peers amid the recent downturn and it's significant long-term potential remains intact. Consider adding it to your contest scorecard today.
#4 Short Cogo Group (6/4/09)
Though I encountered some resistance to my thesis on this one (see the comments in that link), the short here is playing out according to plan as the market catches on to the fact that 3G rollout in China has been weaker than expected. The stock is down more than 20% since we featured it on the blog, netting you a cool 15 points for the contest. Again, you're welcome.
#5 Short China BAK Battery (6/11/09)
Another humdinger of a short that's been exposed by the recent market weakness. CBAK is down more than 25% and would have scored you 20 points thus far. But it's not too late, read the thesis on this one and you might agree it has more to fall.
#6 Long Israel Chemicals (6/18/09)
Though it's been less than a week fir this one, you've already scored 6 points. And that's despite the fact that recent potash price cuts have freaked out the market and other potast/fertilizer stocks have been dropping. That tells you that the price here is pretty good for a company that will benefit from the growing global demand for fertilizer.
All told that's six picks, 5 winners, and 55 net points, which if you'd only played our stocks, would put you right around 20th place in the contest. Not bad for a long/short portfolio. (And if we're this good with our free picks, perhaps you should consider subscribing to our Motley Fool Global Gains research publication.) Remember, we've got another idea coming this Thursday and every Thursday for the remainder of the contest. So keep reading the blog.
Now for that I promised
Finally, an update on the top 5. They are:
Not surprisingly, ahknaten has soared to the top with a whole host of shorts. But remember, you can't close your picks until the contest ends in a year. Will emerging markets still be down then, or is this just a temporary glitch? That's something to consider as you decide what to add to your own portfolio and let us know your thoughts in the comments.