CAPs must be getting more bullish...
August 14, 2009
– Comments (16)
I notice today that my score bumped down a little bit (.02) on a day when the market was up and my points were up like 100 or something and my percent of correct picks didn't change. I don't know exactly how often, if ever, thats happened before as I don't check my caps score daily by any means... but I know its rare.
That must mean the CAPs game is getting more bullish.
In other places, while I don't often watch TV (I catch fast money a couple times a week and the kudlow report maybe once a week), I would note that at thestreet.com's real money, Cramer is very bullish and the preponderance of the other contributors are extremely bearish. Doug Kass is very bearish right now and has been since S&P 950 or so.
Very few of the hyper bears from earlier in the year have flopped to bullish as far as I can tell.
The once blinding bearishness at seekingalpha has given way to a more balanced view.
I don't know what those are worth to any of us. Frankly, I think the markets direction is defined by supply and demand (obviously) and the bulk of that supply and demand probably comes from hedge funds trying to trade quickly and guess market direction combined with ins and outs from mutual funds. Gun to my head I'd guess the hedgies run more volume with their short term trades than the mutual guys do with more money, but a lower cyclic rate. The hedgies and traders, of course, are convinced that they are smarter than everybody else. The smartest guys in the room.
It all adds upt o a market that makes vicious moves and what amounts to no actual, fundamental, really big change in the situation. The S&P can move 10% on what amounts to little (or more), and some names can double or halve as the S&P makes that move. On what amounts to little...
It all adds up, more or less, to the maniacal actions of a pack of bipolar monkeys.
If I had to take a guess, I'd guess that the market doesn't significantly correct here. Because, frankly, I think everybody is expecting a correction, including me. I'm usually wrong short term, I think i'm a good contrarian indicator... And I think the hedgies keep shorting here... and getting squeezed, and thats the action that we're seeing. I think that the market blew off a couple of good catalysts that could have caused a dump today. My short calls on SPY are still above water, I think I got out of my long puts with a tiny bit of the premiium left...
But one thing is for sure: i'm not making a short term bet of any significance and risking getting in front of the pack of bipolar monkeys... Who konws what mood they'll be in next week?
And if anybody cares for a stock pick or two:
-RJET. one of my largest positions and i'm going to buy the news tomorrow
-ARCC. should dump on a secondary tomorrow, and i'll volunteer to buy the dip. ARCC will use the proceeds from its secondary to buy assets worth more than the negative value caused by the dilution I suspect.
-BZ. one of my biggest positions from an average far lower than here, but I think this thing could run quite a way. Its been wildly volatile for the last several months and could reverse hugely any old time. I'd volunteer to buy any dip under $3.
-MGM. its lagged WYNN and LVS (I have hedged my WYNN shares recently), it has a better valuation, and like BZ above (BZ is ahead of MGM here, as its lumping off debt rapidly) its levered to future earnings simply from paying down debt.
I still like all the high yielding BDCs I always talk about. good luck everybody!
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