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CAPs must be getting more bullish...

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August 14, 2009 – Comments (16)

I notice today that my score bumped down a little bit (.02) on a day when the market was up and my points were up like 100 or something and my percent of correct picks didn't change.  I don't know exactly how often, if ever, thats happened before as I don't check my caps score daily by any means...  but I know its rare. 

That must mean the CAPs game is getting more bullish.  

In other places, while I don't often watch TV (I catch fast money a couple times a week and the kudlow report maybe once a week), I would note that at thestreet.com's real money, Cramer is very bullish and the preponderance of the other contributors are extremely bearish.  Doug Kass is very bearish right now and has been since S&P 950 or so.  

Very few of the hyper bears from earlier in the year have flopped to bullish as far as I can tell.  

The once blinding bearishness at seekingalpha has given way to a more balanced view.  

I don't know what those are worth to any of us.  Frankly, I think the markets direction is defined by supply and demand (obviously) and the bulk of that supply and demand probably comes from hedge funds trying to trade quickly and guess market direction combined with ins and outs from mutual funds.  Gun to my head I'd guess the hedgies run more volume with their short term trades than the mutual guys do with more money, but a lower cyclic rate.  The hedgies and traders, of course, are convinced that they are smarter than everybody else.  The smartest guys in the room.

It all adds upt o a market that makes vicious moves and what amounts to no actual, fundamental, really big change in the situation.  The S&P can move 10% on what amounts to little (or more), and some names can double or halve as the S&P makes that move.  On what amounts to little...  

It all adds up, more or less, to the maniacal actions of a pack of bipolar monkeys.  

If I had to take a guess, I'd guess that the market doesn't significantly correct here.  Because, frankly, I think everybody is expecting a correction, including me.  I'm usually wrong short term, I think i'm a good contrarian indicator...  And I think the hedgies keep shorting here...  and getting squeezed, and thats the action that we're seeing.  I think that the market blew off a couple of good catalysts that could have caused a dump today.  My short calls on SPY are still above water, I think I got out of my long puts with a tiny bit of the premiium left...

But one thing is for sure:  i'm not making a short term bet of any significance and risking getting in front of the pack of bipolar monkeys...  Who konws what mood they'll be in next week? 

And if anybody cares for a stock pick or two:

-RJET.  one of my largest positions and i'm going to buy the news tomorrow

-ARCC.  should dump on a secondary tomorrow, and i'll volunteer to buy the dip.  ARCC will use the proceeds from its secondary to buy assets worth more than the negative value caused by the dilution I suspect.

-BZ.  one of my biggest positions from an average far lower than here, but I think this thing could run quite a way.  Its been wildly volatile for the last several months and could reverse hugely any old time.  I'd volunteer to buy any dip under $3.  

-MGM.  its lagged WYNN and LVS (I have hedged my WYNN shares recently), it has a better valuation, and like BZ above (BZ is ahead of MGM here, as its lumping off debt rapidly) its levered to future earnings simply from paying down debt. 

I still like all the high yielding BDCs I always talk about.  good luck everybody!

16 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On August 14, 2009 at 1:15 AM, portefeuille (99.66) wrote:

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#709) On August 14, 2009 at 12:50 AM, checklist34 (99.76) wrote: ever add up the caps score for this list?

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Not the caps score, but the relative performance. Just click on my favourite Viking here.

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#2) On August 14, 2009 at 1:22 AM, portefeuille (99.66) wrote:

actually clicking the Viking is ineffective. click "enlarge". "enlarge" is not the appropriate expression but since there is no way for me to edit my posts what can I do?

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#3) On August 14, 2009 at 1:33 AM, awallejr (79.49) wrote:

"The Market" is "smarter" than people give it credit for.  The market tanked because it was the "right" thing to do at the time.  And the market is rising for that same reason. It is the "right" thing to do at this time.

Now people guessing which way, that is a different ballgame.  It's the guesses that will make or break a person or institution. 

I wish you luck on your picks. I still urge C and ATPG for long term holds.

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#4) On August 14, 2009 at 1:41 AM, JakilaTheHun (99.93) wrote:

I notice today that my score bumped down a little bit (.02) on a day when the market was up and my points were up like 100 or something and my percent of correct picks didn't change.  I don't know exactly how often, if ever, thats happened before as I don't check my caps score daily by any means...  but I know its rare.

It happens to me quite frequently now.  Once I hit the top 100, I found that you can have very great days and still move downwards.  That (and the flawed accuracy component) are the two main reasons I'm not sure that I'll ever make the top 10 in the CAPS ratings.  (I could potentially get there in score, though.)

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#5) On August 14, 2009 at 1:53 AM, checklist34 (99.71) wrote:

jeez, i was proud that i had a +400 on GNW.  I'd have a +400 on a few things if the 100M and 1.50 rules weren't here.  oh well. 

hagar the horrible...  pillar of my childhood.  

 

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#6) On August 14, 2009 at 1:57 AM, checklist34 (99.71) wrote:

awall...  I have some C from the preferred conversion...  I'll take a look at ATPG, i don't think i'm familiar with that one. 

The pack of bipolar monkeys (short term guessing, momentum investing creating an amplification of short term moves, wall street constantly outsmarting itself) ...  man they go through alot to get their returns.  Read real money at thestreet.com to get an idea of how bipolar and stressful that can be.  

All my return thus far is basiclaly made by just averaging in from jan through early march and then largely staying long.  I did raise some cash at one point...  and have raised some again...  hard to say if that will ultimately help me -vs- just being long or not.  

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#7) On August 14, 2009 at 1:59 AM, checklist34 (99.71) wrote:

hey jakila, i'll def never make the top 10.  lol

i'm ok with that.  its interesting that, by and large, my CAPs game score (moving up or down) has semi-decently (maybe sort of decently) reflected my real life return.  this despite its absurdity

 

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#8) On August 14, 2009 at 2:14 AM, awallejr (79.49) wrote:

Chk check the link I have in my recent blog about ATPG.  Sucker has some serious potential. 

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#9) On August 14, 2009 at 2:27 AM, checklist34 (99.71) wrote:

i will check it out, awall, thanks for the tip

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#10) On August 14, 2009 at 2:45 AM, Seano67 (26.73) wrote:

Yep awallejr, and thanks again for that ATPG tip. My only regret is that I didn't have even more money available with which to buy in, but hell, if that's my only complaint, then I guess things must be going fairly well. ***knockin' on wood so as not to jinx meself***

And RE: things going well and CAPS turning bullish, hey my score went up 400+ points today, so yay me! Ha ;)

 

Cheers!

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#11) On August 14, 2009 at 3:04 AM, awallejr (79.49) wrote:

WTG Sean!  Your portfolio always made me feel good when mine was tanking heheh. Might see a pullback on ATPG next week, but I always buy if I see it under $8.

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#12) On August 14, 2009 at 5:05 PM, checklist34 (99.71) wrote:

ATPG does look promising, what a steal at 2.75.  still has huge short interest, and that alone is sufficient catalyst for a move higher.

They have an appreciable amount of debt.  Do you gents have any details on that debt?  When is it due, any risk of covenant violations, etc?

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#13) On August 14, 2009 at 5:23 PM, outoffocus (23.17) wrote:

Heck even Yahoo Tech Ticker is becoming more bullish.

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#14) On August 14, 2009 at 7:35 PM, awallejr (79.49) wrote:

Chk, here's a great article which also addresses your questions regarding the debt.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/133082

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#15) On August 17, 2009 at 11:37 AM, checklist34 (99.71) wrote:

cool, thanks awall.

per my caps must be getting more bullish theory...  my ranking is up on a hard down day and I have only long positions.  Thats ...  a very new phenomenon.  CAPs game is undoubtedly more bullish in the last 2-3 weeks than at any other time since I began.

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#16) On August 18, 2009 at 5:01 PM, TMFBabo (100.00) wrote:

I think it has to do with how much your accuracy goes up on that day.  The people who have a lot of slightly negative picks that turn positive will have HUGE gains in the CAPS rankings due to the crazy accuracy boost.  If your picks are mostly positive already, your accuracy will not skyrocket on an up day and people may pass you even if your portfolio is bullish itself.

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