CAPS personalized Stocks of the DAY and BP.....SCARY??? You be the judge!!!
I generally ignore the Caps, personalized "Stock of the Day". They are clearly a play on what you've picked recently and CAPs looking for more Calls and pitches to be made by players. Slightly interesting sometimes if I don't recognize a company name, but generally not of interest, although I do see some players "playing" them.
I was doing my pitch on BP, however, and I noticed this very strange Pattern. I'm wondering if the CAPS "stocks of the day" might be hiding subliminal messaging or might be prognostic? Are computers of the world ready to take over??
Here were my five for the week.
JCI, SPIL, GNK, BHP, VWSYF.PK
JCI ; Johnson Controls is clearly suggesting that the shutoff controls went bad on the BP oil rig. Further analysis will take months, if ever resolved, but CAPS already knows it was the shutoff controls and the back flow of the methane gas.
SPIL; What you get when the explosion happened, one big a$$ spill of oil. Pretty obvious, but CAPS called this one. And what does an oil spill get you??
GNK; or gallons and gallons of GUNK on the water. This ticker is two-for-one..this is also a shipping company. They don't ship oil, but natural resources. The oil tankers, however, are also a risk, and it will take a tanker to collect the flow if the cap works this weekend. Wow!
BHP; Is a Natural Resource company, oil, NG, and coal.....this one's a little tricker, is the CAPS computer indicating that we should switch to Coal..? No the answer becomes more obvious when you factor in Friday's call.
VWSYF.PK, or Vestas Wind Systems, one of the largest companies in the world that focuses on Wind Power.
So there you have it; the CAPS, computer, is like HAL on Space Odessey. It's telling us that no amount of controls will keep us from spilling gunk all over our planet and as long as we burn oil and coal, wrecking our planet, we are doomed. Wind is clearly superior and us Human Beans just don't get it. Read between the lines. My pitch on BP was/is pretty lame compared to the CAPs computer that is linked to all the other computers in the world and is clearly getting ready to take over if us Humans just don't get things right.
MORE LAME: Pitch on BP;
BP, as we all know is a sticky situation right now. I put in a low entry point here on CAPs and it got filled in all the volatility this week. The reality is that it's a wildcard. I generally like playing volatility, (with a little of my money). I'm easily bored otherwise, and risk/reward keeps things interesting. IN this case you can use any valuation model you want and you can't have any certainty what will happen.
The three Arguments in favor of BP seems to be that
1. They already lost $20 Plus BILLION of Market Cap. Clean-up could be $3 to $5 Billion.
2. There may be cost sharing with RIG and others involved, or some insurance.
3. Dividends are a good play in the short run and BP is large enough to counter the problem.
I contend that you can't value the long term clean-up costs as this hits shore, states/industry/fishing sue, people on the rig died, and how this impacts future earnings. The leaks aren't stopped. The scope of the issue is unknown. The capping/funneling being done this weekend is with unknown results as it's never been done at these depths and those involved don't look confident. Will new drilling be allowed in the areas BP works in? Oil is a great commodity in that demand/supply seem to balance out favorably for the oil companies, but managing supply and demand is very difficult. Supply requires new drilling and replacing what is drawn down. As far as dividends, they are a function of profits. If you are paying off costs for this over the next 2-3 years or more, dividends, especially at 6% if the share price stays low, are not a right, but I do believe that BP will not cut them hastily and further wound their market cap.
My upthumb is because the situation, (cause officially will be unknown), appears to be due to methane and the shutoff circuits at these depths. Other countries.such as Brazil require an additional safety circuit. Balancing risk against the demand for oil will require a solution, one that might not be perfect, but our society isn't going to settle for the cost of stopping drilling in offshore locations. Second, I'm relatively pleased with BP's stance overall. Exxon spent more money fighting the claims than the cost would have been. Some of the cost can never be fully repaid, but the balance is there somewhere, and my risk/reward meter tilts slightly toward BP with a lot of wave action in the short run. If you are working a diversified portfolio, then oil plays are very valuable to your mix. They play on the economy and the US Dollar. In my opinion there are worse plays on oil than a wounded BP.
TSIF The Sky is not Falling Today, but the world's computers are ready to take over if we can't stop making messes.