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CAPS Rating 99.09!

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May 19, 2007 – Comments (1)

I'm about as pumped as a guy can get.  I get more excited about my CAPS performance than my "Real money" accounts.  Thanks to some vindication with a number of "oil patch" picks made last December, my accuracy is at 65%!  I'm still waiting MUCH more growth in these ultra-low investments, as well as additional contraction in Dendreon and the death knell for New Century.

 And on top of all this, I continue to get edumacated about investing by looking at others' picks and the reasoning behind those picks.  TMFElderhead has such a fantastic track record, but I'm amazed at how many of his picks just baffle me.  He either has some special information I don't have access to, or he's just got much better ways of looking at stocks.

 I look at Forward P/E.  I try and judge whether it is reasonable - a good test is whether and how much the analyst estimates have changed.  For commodity companies like the oil companies, margins are easier to calculate and predict.  Sometimes the Analysts are good at keeping up with those.  I've found, however, that with oil integrated companies, especially with ConocoPhillips (COP), analysts just don't seem to have a clue.  What seems basic math to me often alludes these folks.  Case-in-point - Refining margins went from $10 to $30 between early March and mid-May.  Now, bear in mind that Conoco refines 2.5 Million barrels PER DAY.  And what did the Analyst estimates do?  They went DOWN!  Even though COP should make over $2.4 Billion After Tax - and even though Crude and NatGas prices are also HIGHER, the Analysts estimates go down over the last 90 days. 

 So I guess I'm still awaiting some further vindication . . .     ;-)

1 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On May 19, 2007 at 2:03 AM, n8o (59.69) wrote:

Congrats!  I have been so so close and yet so far away from that magic 100 myself (personal best around 93 I think) and can imagine how excited you must be!  Keep up the good work, I will be watching your comments on energy.

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