Caps Says I'm Wrong
I have taken critism for going 100% underperform, which was completely the correct move when your belief system is the market was seriously bubbled.
If I look at my one year performance compared to the S&P, well, I went to an average of about 4% on guaranteed investment certificates and government savings bonds, so I am up 4%.
If I compared to the S&P, well, one year ago it was at 1,552.76 and today it is at 876.77. So, add 4% onto 1552.76 and you get 1614.87, divide it by 876.77, and I've out performed the market by 84%...
But I didn't make 84%, I just protected my capital. I made 4%.
So, just how does caps score losers in a down market?
I am losing my google pick. I said you'd lose money, and right now you'd be down 21% if you bought it when I underperformed it, but CAPS says I was wrong to advise against it.
I am losing my HSC pick. I said you'd lose money and right now you'd be down 30%, but CAPS says I was wrong to advise against it.
I am losing on 63 out of 104 active picks that would have all lost you money...
And here's the other, thing, people are actually "winning" on catching falling knives portfolios.
I stated my position very strongly in a comment on a blog in response to repeated critism that I couldn't pick an outperform if my life depended on it. And, as I stated in the comment, "and with the system here you could also actually lose money and still be a winner."
I probably should have added, "a lot of money."