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CAPS Still Eating Posts

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May 03, 2008 – Comments (9)

Sigh, Caps is killing my posts and I'm so not good at saving it first...

I had a post asking if anyone knows how the depression affected their family.  I know that my grandfather's family was considered wealthy before the depression and they were wiped out. 

Market ticker has good rant today.  I just put up my reading list. 


9 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On May 03, 2008 at 2:08 AM, zygnoda (27.10) wrote:

I know one of my grandpa's wasn't all that affected by it.  His father worked for an electric company and they had it better than most.  Other than that I have no clue...

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#2) On May 03, 2008 at 9:50 AM, wolfhounds (28.90) wrote:

I've has 2 posts disappear this week. Sent in a message, but so far no reply.

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#3) On May 03, 2008 at 9:58 AM, chk999 (99.97) wrote:

I had a blog post lost. Most annoying.

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#4) On May 03, 2008 at 10:29 AM, abitare (32.06) wrote:

I write on MS word then paste. I have lost to many posts here in the past.

One of the largest and wealthiest landholders from my hometown made his purchases during the depression.  People, who got out before the collapse and held on to cash became wealthy.

The US is looking at a currency or an economic collapse, which will play out differently.

Grapes of Wrath is worth a read. 

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#5) On May 03, 2008 at 10:56 AM, dwot (52.34) wrote:

Yes abitarecatania, I keep watching the markets closely because the problems are grossly severe and the process of correction isn't going to be pretty, but predict wrong on how it plays out and you could be in for very big hurting.

Although many are ill informed, I suspect far more are much better informed then with bubbles of the past.  We can all look at the past and come up with some ideas of how it plays out, but I think the better informed analysing how things have played out in the past will could respond to make something less likely.

It is kind of like how all these wall street players had the same ideas and were playing the same game.  It worked for those in the game early, but completely crashed because all were relying on the same strategy to hedge themselves, and the weight of too many relying on a single hedge idea collapsed. 

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#6) On May 03, 2008 at 11:12 AM, abitare (32.06) wrote:

dwot,

We are aligned in thinking. It is bizarre. To me there are several historical examples: Zimbabwe (hyper inflation), Japan (prolonged deflation) or the Soviet Union (collapse of the Nation state). UK - loss of world's reserve currency status, loss of its empire and 80% of its wealth.

I expect the US will loose the worlds reserve currency status and I expect we will have prolonged deflation. Americans are going to take a severe loss in lifestyle and much of the benefits promised from the FED and goverment will be lost. 

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#7) On May 03, 2008 at 3:42 PM, TMFJake (70.93) wrote:

Sorry about the disappearing blog post problem.  We are trying to reproduce and get to the root cause. --jk

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#8) On May 03, 2008 at 4:17 PM, dwot (52.34) wrote:

I was looking at contrasting the US to Argentina in terms of debt.  Americans have little concept of the what having the status of reserve currency has given them. 

There has been enormous privilege in buying power.  Up until recently my buying power for a vacation has been in the range of half of American buying power.  When I was in Costa Rica last summer I met a cab driver who took trip to Europe where he arranged to stay with some people for part of the vacation.  For this guy, it took him 10 years to save for that vacation and it had defrayed costs due to finding people willing to help board him.

I think the privilege and abuse of that privilege on debt is going to be interesting to watch it play out.  Argentina has a problem with debt.  I haven't looked at the details, but it isn't what they borrowed that's killing them so much as the loss of currency value and having to pay back the debt in a different currency.  I was reading that that had increased the debt by something like 20% in one year.  Argentina has no privilege on debt.  

The US on the other hand is grossly negligent in retaining buying power of the US dollar, indeed, devaluing the heck out of it.  With the privilege of reserve currency the US does not pay for the cost of policy that robs their debtors, who trusted the US to be responsible.  In the short term this is an enormous gain to the US. 

If the US policy makers smarten up and actually do things to defend the dollar the US keeps the gain and the priviledge.  However, the gross loss of trust is simply going to mean that the US will have enormous problems to find ways to continue to finance the debt, and that will send rates up, as is already happening for business, governments and for private debt.

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#9) On May 03, 2008 at 11:03 PM, dwot (52.34) wrote:

Another post eaten...  Waaaaaa!

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