CBOU is priced to Armageddon!
Bare with me in discussing my own STOCK again as I will cover (FRED) that is not in my portfolio later in this post....
1) CBOU is in my portfolio....and in fact I joined in this morning's crazy initial rally before the huge plummet in CBOU this morning by accumulating 74 shares.... Up 9.5% only to end down over 5% today (a 14.5% pricing move from today's peak!!!).
2) Furthermore CBOU simply followed SBUX into the toilet which means this was a SECTOR Sell-off and not necessarilly any attempt to zero in on CBOU as some kind of "LOSER" in the coffee sector.
3) CBOU at $8.62 does not really appear to be done selling off...... Could go back to a 7 handle if there is enough fear over the JUNE Services number showing that the economy is weakening.
4) I can personally confirm that my last visit to CBOU at Royal Oak Michigan revealed a stunning lack of energy and excitement at the place....... Not even HARDLY close to the number of people I saw in the CBOU during Q1 of 2010. This was inspite of their promotion/marketing of their new lineup of Lemonade, Iced Tea Drinks...(DELICIOUS as heck!!) It didn't feel like a "Break Even" kinda day for the restaurant at Royal Oak Michigan. *sigh*
5) So..... we are pricing in Armageddon for the 2nd half of Caribou Coffee which means Wall Street doesn't care at all what the EPS / Earnings / Profit / Revenue were for last year.... So you can just completely ignore anything positive that happened last quarter and focus on the future.
NOW! I have something to say about a stock NOT in my portfolio (FRED).
FRED dropped BIG as well as if it was a SBUX or a CBOU........ THIS IS NOT a premium priced goods restaurant company.
FRED is a discount merchandiser and a Pharmacy type business.... Unfortunately my opinion is that of a MORON!!! MORON!!! so do your own research especially since I do not have a FRED where I can go to and visit.
But I am nonetheless going to raise my "Watch List FRED" alert to a "BUY BUY BUY" alert on FRED if the stock drops to around $9.80 or less.
Get FRED at $9.80 and I feel strongly you'll thank me... but I haven't visited FRED cause I do not live near one as far as I know.... So I can't channel check this..... So my opinion is rather rather very weak here... Take it for what it is worth.
I believe that when a PREMIUM shop gets obliterated in the stock market.... The DISCOUNT stores should be priced netural to higher depending on P/E and YIELD.