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drummnutt (< 20)

Challenge to ALSTRY, GoldMiningXpert and GoodVibe

Recs

30

May 06, 2009 – Comments (26)

Ok, let's make this ineteresting. According to a few bloggers, the sky is falling and we are going to fall to sub 700 on the S&P500 index. According to a post of mine, (when the S&P500 was around 855), this rally will last to 950 -1000 before correcting a little, or trading sideways (or maybe even hit a bit higher). I have based this on a wide variety of opinions, stats (within an historical context) and some common sence to boot.

So who is right? How about this for a challenge. If the S&P500 hits my 950 mark within 4 weeks (up more than 10% from time of post), the three named doomsdayers are not allowed to blog (freeing us from ill-founded, negative vibes) for 4 weeks. Conversely if we even fall back to only 800 before hitting this mark in that 4 weeks (only 5% down from time of post) I will not blog here for 6 months. If neither target is reached, we'll call a stale-mate.

Please rec if you would like to see this happen!!

Cheers.

26 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On May 06, 2009 at 11:41 AM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

Good morning nutt -

This is market psychology at best! Back then when we broke 700 on the S&P there were not a single one here in Caps calling for a bottom (at least not as much as I did). This is true also for market sentiment where I highlighted back then that bulls' ratio was LOWEST 2%. Only 2% bulls on March 6. Now it's around 70% just in few weeks. We want another 25% to get dragged in to call this is a TOP.

I never said we are going down as Al and GMX. Actually I am the one who said this. That said with the normal bulls' irrationality making a V shape rally, I had to call for a pull back not a demise of the rally as you try to imply I do. If I see this is to be the case (end of rally), make no mistake, I will be the first one to say so. And I will and I know that the bulls will come from everywhere to desmise the call as the bears did back then when I called for the bottom.

So welcome to the bull's club where I didn't see you post even a single bullish blog in March to ask people to rush and buy @ 675 instead of calling them to buy @ 875!

It's all about psychology. For your so called "challenge". Try to add, build, or make a positive difference. You can express your opinion without need to be a macho man or challenge anyone or it became now a "Rec harvest" and "attention grab" to bring other bloggers' names in your title. :)

I hope this find you well.

GoodVibe

 

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#2) On May 06, 2009 at 11:43 AM, whereaminow (< 20) wrote:

$6.3T was just created out of thin air.  The people that were given the money were large banks, investment houses, hedge funds, and insurance giants with clients in the aforementioned.

What do you think they did with the money? 

I'm going to make a prediction right now.  This is a bubble.  The above groups are pumping the newly created dollars into the market, causing prices to rise (inflation), causing investors to chase after a free lunch (malinvestment), and within a short time (probably this summer) everyone will realize that no new wealth was created, the fundamentals are still crappy, unemployment still sucks, and instead of pumping money into the stock market, we should have been paying off our debt.  Then everyone panic sells (the bust).

Then you come along and tell us that the government needs to "do something" to fix it all. 

David in Qatar 

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#3) On May 06, 2009 at 12:04 PM, drummnutt (< 20) wrote:

I can promise you that I was buying in feb/march. As I said in my post, I am weary about making short term calls. I can still see the possibility for an immediate pullback, making me look like an idiot. However, it is the least probable of all possible outcomes that I see. Goodvibe, according to your chart you called the top at 820. This means you've either missed out on some good gains, or worse, have lost on a few shorts.

This is not the next bull market, but it is a sustainable rally! Why not go long and make a few gains??

Good luck.

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#4) On May 06, 2009 at 12:25 PM, kaskoosek (37.09) wrote:

I rarely agree with goodvibe, but he is right on this one.

 

This is phycology at its best, because earnings are nonexistent.

 

I am a bullish guy, because I beleive in inflation long term, but the US economy everyday now appears more and more in the crapper.

 

Exposure should e to foreign equities or multinational stocks.

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#5) On May 06, 2009 at 12:31 PM, EggplantWizard (99.32) wrote:

I also agree that this is an unsustainable rally.

 

Prices are out of whack with fundamentals. The problem is -- that can happen for a long time, and the economy will eventually recover, inflation will also kick in....

So what will happen first?

Will earnings catch up to be realistic at these price levels (because of a combination of recovery and inflation), or will prices correct down to realistic levels?

I don't know -- but I'm betting on the latter, and probably soon.

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#6) On May 06, 2009 at 12:49 PM, FreundInvesting (29.53) wrote:

I'm sorry, but who are you to challenge anyone?

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#7) On May 06, 2009 at 2:09 PM, drummnutt (< 20) wrote:

Freund, I see that you called the top nearly 3 weeks ago. So as far as cred for acuracy, I call check mate my friend!

The point of this blog is to point out that there are so many people pulling picks out of thin air and making VERY inaccurate predictions in the past. How about we get some rational discussion, mainly from those who have been accurate in the past and listen to their opinions. Not numnuts who don't have a clue and their only claim of cred is recs because their MOOD happens to match that of the populist opinion of the day!

mmm i feel like we should be 674.35... i'll go with that today?!?! LOL

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#8) On May 06, 2009 at 2:20 PM, kdakota630 (29.76) wrote:

Freund, I see that you called the top nearly 3 weeks ago. So as far as cred for acuracy, I call check mate my friend!

Between you and FreundInvesting, while he was obviously early with his call, he's established himself a pretty good track record and score.  I'm more likely to follow him than someone who criticizes without making a single pick to allow others the same opportunity to scrutinize and criticize.

You might be a great stock picker, but how will any of us know unless you participate?

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#9) On May 06, 2009 at 2:40 PM, nottheSEC (80.53) wrote:

 drummnutt (< 20) IMHO and just that because I am no top stock picker I assumed this to be a genntleman's/lady's challenge. I thought the "cheers" on the end was quite polite and accept all you assertions at face value without checking. I was SUPRISED to find true KDakota statement that you have not picked any stock. I bloged on my disappointment with people who do not blog and criticise. The fact you have no stocks is more than tantamount to not blogging because this is a stock picking game. I have no qualms with a score but play the game with the rest......All best ...J

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#10) On May 06, 2009 at 2:41 PM, drummnutt (< 20) wrote:

Sorry, but as I have pointed out before, I am not American. Therfore I do not follow individual stocks (equities) within USA. I do however use Macro data from USA and indexes.

It is important as a forigner to understand what is happening in USA, because as they say;

"When America sneezes, the world catches a cold."

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#11) On May 06, 2009 at 2:43 PM, FreundInvesting (29.53) wrote:

drummnutt

Difference is, I don't challenge people; I know that I am not right all the time. But I do make my decisions based on fundamentals, which this bullishness is obviously ignoring. That's fine; it gives me more time to load up on shorts.

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#12) On May 06, 2009 at 2:52 PM, drummnutt (< 20) wrote:

Fundamentals??? Here's one for you;

"The Coppock Indicator for the Nikkei index reversed its course at the end of April, indicating that the bounce from the depths of March is sustainable. In addition, major indices in the US, the UK, Australia and elsewhere are very close to confirming the signal. These indices only need to stabilise in May, in the case of the All Ordinaries; or to gain 100 points compared with April, in the case of the Dow Jones Industrial Average. The latter implies at least no change from current levels over the four weeks ahead"

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#13) On May 06, 2009 at 3:10 PM, portefeuille (99.66) wrote:

Coppock was an economist and he had been asked by the Episcopal Churchbereavements and required a period of mourning. He asked the church bishops how long that normally took for people, their answer was 11 to 14 months and so he used those periods in his calculation. 

(taken from here)

interesting!

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#14) On May 06, 2009 at 3:57 PM, nottheSEC (80.53) wrote:

drummnutt (< 20)  "...Sorry, but as I have pointed out before, I am not American. Therfore I do not follow individual stocks (equities) within USA. I do however use Macro data from USA and indexes...."

Fine then respectfully pick Index/sector ETF's or US listed/Pink sheets stocks from your country. I believe you can amass seven of these with no problem.

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#15) On May 06, 2009 at 4:38 PM, FreundInvesting (29.53) wrote:

The Coppock indicator, while an amazingly accurate portrayal of economic fundamentals (/sarcasm), does not have a place in my analysis of fundamentals. You can go out and find any number of "indicators" showing "great" fundamentals, but when we are losing 600,000+ (the population of Vermont) jobs each month, most banks are found to be insolvent, median home prices are still 20%+ higher than the average 3x median income, those obscure "indicators" mean nothing.

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#16) On May 06, 2009 at 4:41 PM, portefeuille (99.66) wrote:

#13 corrected:

Coppock was an economist and he had been asked by the Episcopal Church to identify buying opportunities for long-term investors. He thought market downturns were like bereavements and required a period of mourning. He asked the church bishops how long that normally took for people, their answer was 11 to 14 months and so he used those periods in his calculation.

 

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#17) On May 06, 2009 at 6:05 PM, SurvivalInfo (< 20) wrote:

-1 rec

I agree with others here.  Prove you know something and then come back and issue some challenges.  Right now, you are nobody in CAPS land.  

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#18) On May 07, 2009 at 1:48 AM, awallejr (77.67) wrote:

Actually I tip my hat off to GV.  When things were very bleak for us bulls back in early March it was GV who started "THE BOTTOM" call.  Well he is expecting a pullback as many bears do, but I do suspect this rally still has "legs."  From a bull's perspective S&P does need to hit 944, otherwise it is just another rebound off another low.  I really do think we will see 944+, but that is just my prediction.  Time will ultimately tell.

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#19) On May 07, 2009 at 5:29 AM, drummnutt (< 20) wrote:

Buy or sell the market that you are in, not the one you want. By far the majority of indicators say that 950 is a conservative estimate (I wouldn't be surprised if we get to 1050 before any reasonable, minor correction).

As I have said before, don't be a bull or a bear, analyse the data for what it is. The bears bay want another drop, the bulls may want a surge, but that either camp's DESIRES are not a good basis to try to undestand what is happining out there in the real world.

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#20) On May 08, 2009 at 10:46 AM, goldminingXpert (29.55) wrote:

If the S&P500 hits my 950 mark within 4 weeks (up more than 10% from time of post)

The S&P was at ~910 when you posted making your call a mere 4% gain, not 10%. I refuse to take challenges from people who not only don't pick stocks but don't even show proficiency with percentages.

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#21) On May 13, 2009 at 1:08 AM, drummnutt (< 20) wrote:

FYI, my prediction (with a timeframe!) was posted on the morning of April 30 at S&P500 of about 850! I could have posted this blog a few weeks earlier, but was a bit hesitent to make a prediction, because they can go pearshaped - as you have proved MANY times over.

Anyway, good luck with your investment strategy!

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#22) On May 13, 2009 at 2:49 AM, goldminingXpert (29.55) wrote:

as you have proved MANY times over.

Ha. Ha. Ha. As if I'm going to have a 100% prediction rate over the 2 years I've been here. Of course I've been wrong. I'm right more often than I'm wrong though. With your bold 0 picks, I can say confidently, however, that you've never been right.

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#23) On May 15, 2009 at 2:52 AM, drummnutt (< 20) wrote:

I don't expect 100%, but maybe you could aim for at least 10% and then build from there?!?! 

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#24) On May 15, 2009 at 4:33 AM, goldminingXpert (29.55) wrote:

I'm significantly over 50% buddy.

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#25) On May 15, 2009 at 8:47 AM, dwot (45.74) wrote:

That coppex indicator gave me a good chuckle...

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#26) On May 15, 2009 at 11:01 AM, REITDUDE (85.54) wrote:

@ 25, forget chuckling- if DWI or Specbear were around, I'd be on the floor of my cube laughing at their 10 page responses tearing this guy a new one.

 

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