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Varchild2008 (85.34)




May 20, 2009 – Comments (6) | RELATED TICKERS: HOTT.DL

1)  California asking the FEDs for a bail out

2)  HOT TOPIC proves that consumer spending in Q1 has come to a crashing halt in Q2.
     (Varchild prepared to take a steep loss in this gamble he took to try and trade the stock)

3)  Price of Barrel of Oil along with Dollar's decline showcases the beginning of HYPERINFLATION.  The Price of Gasoline at the pump is going up almost 2 times Barrel price per percentage.

4)  With issue after issue getting past super easy in Congress cause the Republican Party is the same party as the Democratic Party... same ideology....same tax and spenders....same everything.....   We are 1 step closer and closer to CAP AND TRADE!

5)  CAFE Standards that are prepared to strangle the Automotive Sector into oblivion have happened with a peep.... with so much as a chirp of protest from anyone.   No one cares to realize that not even FORD is capable of complying with the requirement.

6) Once California Gets Bailed out... NEW YORK,  NEW JERSEY, MICHIGAN,  OHIO,  RHODE ISLAND, and so on.. and so on....  All will be asking the FEDs for a bail out.

7) Individual Taxpayer Taxes will go up 200% this year on a year over year basis taking into account:

            A:   Tabacco and Cigarrette Taxes   which have gone up over 100% already and Congress wants to increase them some more, is just the icing on the cake to what ELSE will get taxed.
            B:   The Upper Income Tax Hike will have to be given to the Middle Class income level once Congress realizes they aren't getting enough cash as expected.
            C:   U.S.  Dollar will plunge and plunge and while that's bullish for Corporation's exports, it certainly isn't bullish for those who think their Taxes won't go up.  With a weakened dollar...The FEDs will have a harder time reducing its debt load.  Cause Treasury Bonds will get tougher to sell.

8) Everything Alstry has been saying.... Is already beginning happen.   Those (including myself) who have laughed at his estimtes of 50+%  unemployment or worse... whatever they were....  They are going to occur.... A speeding bullet train towards the absolute destruction of Wealth is in effect.

9)  The whole business about how Banks giving back TARP is good news somehow... That gets offset by the fact that the pace of continued BAILOUTS..... Such as the recent announcement coming to give over $7 billion to GMAC.... and AIG needs more cash....   I mean who cares?  The TARP gets returned only to be spent.... and more money is being spent than is being returned, once California gets their bailout folks!

10)  Before the end of 2010 will be the DEATH of the FEDERAL PENSION SYSTEM as we know it.
All companys struggling to pay their pensions.... won't be able to... and the FEDs can't bail out the pensions 100%.... They'll have to do 10 cents on the dollar or significantly less.

11)  DESPITE the absolute CHAOS going on.... There exists no trend or sign that American Voters will vote for Conservative Politicians and Vote Out Liberal Politicians.  In fact... As the bailouts grow in intensity... so will the intense voter support of Liberal Politicians.   Illegal Immigration has a strangle hold over benefits in America as well as the ability to cheat the system and vote... and be part of the CENSUS.... when they shouldn't be allowed to do so.

CHECK.... CHECK MATE....    We are all screwed!

Given all of this.... VARCHILD is not sure.....yet.... if he wants to bail out of his equities and essentially quit.

HOT TOPIC is definitely the icing on the cake to the "We are all screwed" thesis.

6 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On May 20, 2009 at 8:58 PM, mode7 (< 20) wrote:

Hot Topic? This is satire right? Because if you're using Hot Topic as any sort of economic indicator then you may as well consult an Augur, because that's about how much Hot Topic has to do with the economy or really anything relevant for that matter.

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#2) On May 21, 2009 at 6:21 AM, Varchild2008 (85.34) wrote:

Except if Hot Topic can't sell merchandise that SHOULD SELL  (Eminem and Green Day's  music CDs in particular) then Hot Topic is a brilliant assessment on consumer spending.

Last I checked.. Video Games are selling either in March and April.  Either are console systems.

The biggest spenders in society aren't the "Baby Boomers" so much as they are the young Teenagers that follow the Pop Culture.....  Right now?  They are strapped for cash....they can't find a Summer Job to pay for things they used to be able to spend on.

DVD sales are falling off the cliff still as well....

Hot Topic sells a wide assortment of merchandise beyond that of clothes and accessories.  They have TORRID and Shockhound right now.

If we see the same results out of Marilyn Manson's CD not selling..... May 27th it comes out.   Then I don't think you can sit around pretending Hot Topic doesn't represent the economy.
It most certainly does.... It represents how much spending is going on at your local Mall!

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#3) On May 21, 2009 at 6:23 AM, Varchild2008 (85.34) wrote:

TYPO.. I mean that video games and consoles ARE NOT selling lately either...  This is just another example of the lack of sales going on from Teenagers and Tweens that normally spend lots of money even during recessions on this stuff.

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#4) On May 22, 2009 at 2:13 AM, robstuck (< 20) wrote:

great post. transfer payments, welfare, uneducated voters, unions(so 1900's), bailouts and taxes are destroying our economy. 

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#5) On May 22, 2009 at 7:44 AM, MGDG (32.92) wrote:

Varchild, I'll comment on #2 in your list. Hot Topic is just the tip of the Iceburg right now. In the coming weeks there will many more to follow and not just retail.

In our business we began to see the activity level contract across most sectors 3 weeks ago. If it doesn't turn around in the next week or two, the percentage of companies beating expectations in the 2nd Qtr will be lower than 1st Qtr and/or we'll see more companies lowering guidance for Q2.


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#6) On May 27, 2009 at 1:04 PM, Londamania (45.88) wrote:

You don't seem to recognize that it was the conservative politicians (that's actually the cheap suit image they wear - what they really are is bought and paid for rich special interests) that got is into this mess more than anyone else, as they turned their blind eyes asleep at the wheel while the rich special interests looted the country with unregulated and short term greed driven wealth schemes.  Since you still appear to want to vote for them the veracity of all your claims takes a big hit.  :)

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