# portefeuille (98.82)

## portefeuille's CAPS Blog

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November 11, 2011 – Comments (11)

update of the usual figure displaying the S&P 500 index (at 1263.85, see this post).

short explanation.

non-logarithmic version.

#1) On November 11, 2011 at 9:49 PM, portefeuille (98.82) wrote:

The trend line should (if the number of trading days per year remains close to 252) reach 1600 in early March 2013, around 4 years after the start of the current rally. I think the S&P 500 index will make new all-time highs slightly before March 2013. Just guessing, of course, hehe ...

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#2) On November 11, 2011 at 10:35 PM, portefeuille (98.82) wrote:

the trend line (see comment #12 here).

f (t) = 676.53 * exp(1/15 * t^0.37), where t is the "running number" of the trading day with t = 0 for March 9, 2009. November 11, 2011 is trading day number 678 of the current rally.

f (678) ≈ 1423.38.
f (1000) ≈ 1596.88.
f (10000) ≈ 5065.85.

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#3) On December 17, 2011 at 1:39 AM, portefeuille (98.82) wrote:

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#4) On December 23, 2011 at 4:06 AM, portefeuille (98.82) wrote:

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#5) On January 07, 2012 at 4:19 PM, portefeuille (98.82) wrote:

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#6) On January 07, 2012 at 4:30 PM, portefeuille (98.82) wrote:

January 9, 2012 is trading day number 716 of the current rally.

trendline.

676.53*exp(1/15*716^0.37) ≈ 1445.12.

upper boundary of trend channel.

676.53*exp(0.9/15*716^0.37) ≈ 1339.50.

lower boundary of trend channel.

676.53*exp(1.1/15*716^0.37) ≈ 1559.07.

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#7) On January 10, 2012 at 10:01 PM, Indiscr33t (< 20) wrote:

what happens when we hit 799?

Just wondering

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#8) On January 10, 2012 at 10:06 PM, portefeuille (98.82) wrote:

see this post.

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#9) On January 10, 2012 at 10:15 PM, portefeuille (98.82) wrote:

1292.08.

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#10) On January 18, 2012 at 12:48 PM, portefeuille (98.82) wrote:

1304.12.

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#11) On January 19, 2012 at 12:57 PM, portefeuille (98.82) wrote:

continued here.

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