April 23, 2010
– Comments (16)
update of the usual figure of the S&P 500 index (see this post).
the short explanation.
The chart is always helpful. I do not know if you realize how to has helped to keep me putting 10 or 15 percent more into cash when the market is due for a correction. This has allowed me to be able to buy more on the dips. When the fed starts tightening I will change the stratege. I will hold more cash.
Again Thanks Portefeuille
probably my best "contribution" so far, hehe ...
I still try to "prove" that my combined stock recommendations have some value, but I guess even if they have, that is much less obvious. oh well ...
I love your curve. Your simple fit is 100000X more accurate than the technical analysts here in CAPS have been (nudge nudge GoodVibes and Binve..)
One trend I am noting though, Porte - is that it seems that greater than 50% of the time in the past 2/3 of a year, we have been in the upper quadrant of the curve. I have a suspicion that we are beginning to deviate a bit from your curve fit to a slightly higher trajectory (average). Perhaps a refit of the curve using the current data might move it a little more positive of a trading range?
I will just leave it like it is. A slightly higher green curve would on average be closer to the index, but the current configuration also has some advantages.
sorry folks...but port - what does you chart mean?
I added a trendline in green and a trendchannel via two grey lines. The second green line is a spline interpolation of closing values of the S&P 500 index. The chart is explained in more detail here.
I am always nervous about the market and like others have expected a correction for some time. However, I think this bull market still has legs. For sure, some stocks look very expensive but others look fine. Breadth has been very good. I noticed last week the house builders and related sectors e.g. furniture stocks did well. I also listened to the DELTA earnings webcast. Management is very positive on a turnaround in the economy. Also, American Express indicated corporate spending is on the up again. I know a few people who have got jobs since being laid off. I believe the economy is recovering. To be sure, some of this is priced in (perhaps for some companies it is more than priced in), but the financials (despite their good run) still look good value to me, some of the healthcare stocks are cheap, energy stocks have lagged big time (but I only own two and I've noticed that a lot of funds are underweight energy), some utility stocks look good. Despite the run in the market and the bullishness as reported in Barrons et al, I still think people think the economy is going to run out of steam and earnings crack. If the market does tank it will because of something we haven't focused on very much i.e. by definition it has to be a surprise. Now, what would be a big surprise....?
my home index.
Hang Seng index.
S&P 500 index in EUR.
one of my better recent recommendations.
#1050) On March 05, 2010 at 3:47 AM, portefeuille (99.97) wrote: NENG - 2.1699 - outperform
Network Engines (NENG).