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portefeuille (99.56)

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May 06, 2010 – Comments (45)

update of the usual figure displaying the S&P 500 index (see this post).



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the short explanation.



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45 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On May 06, 2010 at 1:58 AM, cashkid79 (94.23) wrote:

Interesting, thanks, be interesting to see how spot on technical analysis gets affected by market sentiment - between oil spills, financial reform, healthcare, and privacy issues it will be interesting to see what comes next, but I have an idea of what IDEALLY should happen ... long on media ... emerging markets (depending on media) ... and of course, tech which takes into account media, reporting, and politics to some extent for all ... (and of course, gov / banking

Notice small business I think is tied to the banking performance, obvious reasons ... and that's a pretty big % of generated jobs/income in the US at least so hopefully people keep that in mind ...

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#2) On May 06, 2010 at 2:13 AM, cashkid79 (94.23) wrote:

so an uptick given the aforementioned things factored in already to it's downtick to the 'green' ... just been reading a lot of negative stuff, it's just not really true so ... guess it's easier to be 100% objective out of the country right ... numbers don't usually lie, hehe

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#3) On May 06, 2010 at 4:42 AM, portefeuille (99.56) wrote:

... and our friend the S&P 500 index in EUR, currently at around 1165.87 / 1.2798 ≈ 910.98.



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#4) On May 06, 2010 at 9:18 AM, russiangambit (29.49) wrote:

So, if I read the chart correctly SP500  should bounce at around 1100 irrespective of what goes on in the world?

 

 

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#5) On May 06, 2010 at 10:10 AM, YodaFund (< 20) wrote:

Sir, you made me a lot of money today on ITMN.

Keep us posted on these "potential" opportunities so that I have a place to direct my due diligence.  Bought at $10 and sold at $13.30 for a 33% gain in 24 hrs. 

Made a little over $3,000 usd.  My thanks.

 

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#6) On May 06, 2010 at 10:55 AM, NYCFOOLIO (< 20) wrote:

Hi Port,

ATPG noted in their quarterly release that the gulf oil spill has not affected their business. Do you think it's a better buy now for folks who have no atpg shares; and for folks who have some and want to add to exisiting position?

Also, why is AIXG getting hammered? more so than others in the industry...thanks

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#7) On May 06, 2010 at 11:26 AM, portefeuille (99.56) wrote:

ATPG noted in their quarterly release that the gulf oil spill has not affected their business.

well, they say they may be affected.

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ATP is experiencing minimal impact on its operations and production, and sales of oil and gas as a result of the recent oil spill. ATP’s Gomez and Telemark Hubs are not in the path of the sheen. Production from the Gomez and Telemark Hubs is transported by subsea pipelines to onshore south Louisiana approximately 100 miles west of the spill site. The ATP platforms that serve the Gomez and Telemark Hubs are over 60 miles west and south of the spill site. It is reported that the sheen is moving in a northeasterly direction away from the Gomez and Telemark Hubs. ATP’s Canyon Express Hub, which is 30 miles to the east, continues to operate safely without interruption from the oil spill. ATP’s remaining producing properties are all located to the west and out of the path of the sheen.

As expected, Gulf of Mexico service companies are preferentially providing services and materials to address the conditions of the oil spill. While not expected, it is possible that ATP may experience schedule adjustments to its development operations as a result of the preferential provision of services and materials to the cleanup efforts.

----------------

(from here)

Do you think it's a better buy now for folks who have no atpg shares

I think today is a good day to buy some ATPG shares if you don't have any.

and for folks who have some and want to add to exisiting position?

The position size should be "reasonable" and I leave the determination of what is a "reasonable" size to the reader, hehe ...

Also, why is AIXG getting hammered?

I have updated the analyst estimates for AIXG here. I think Aixtron is pretty cheap right now. It is not really getting hammered, have a look at the 6 month chart I posted in comment #17 of that post. 10% daily moves are fairly common for Aixtron.

more so than others in the industry

There is actually just one competitor (see comment #16 of that post) and the share price of that competitor has not "done" much better in the last few days. As usual I recommend buying a few shares of VECO as well ...

 

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#8) On May 06, 2010 at 11:50 AM, portefeuille (99.56) wrote:

#5 Don't forget to take some profit. I will keep most of my ITMN shares for a while, I think ...

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#9) On May 06, 2010 at 12:11 PM, NYCFOOLIO (< 20) wrote:

Thanks Port...appreciate it...

will you update if you change your outlook on AIXG or ATPG?

and i am patiently waiting for you to bend and respond to my question in your "positions" blog..Thanks Port!

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#10) On May 06, 2010 at 12:42 PM, cashkid79 (94.23) wrote:

I am the only one who sees the interesting correlation between the USD and EUR when the SPX is plotted, port can you plot the SPX (or SPI) for EUR using the same timeline, ie. from March 2009 till present like you did with the USD?

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#11) On May 06, 2010 at 1:36 PM, NYCFOOLIO (< 20) wrote:

Hey Port - good call on AEZS..looks like they won some approval for ovarian cancer treatment...too bad aezs is in my fake portfolio....up 20% today....

thoughts on AEZS going forward???

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#12) On May 06, 2010 at 1:47 PM, portefeuille (99.56) wrote:

no, no approval.

---------------- 

Aeterna Zentaris Receives Orphan-Drug Designation from the FDA for AEZS-108 in Ovarian Cancer

Quebec City, Canada, May 6, 2010 - Aeterna Zentaris Inc. (NASDAQ: AEZS, TSX: AEZ), ("the Company") a late-stage drug development company specialized in oncology and endocrinology, today announced that it has received from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA), orphan-drug designation for AEZS-108, its doxorubicin targeted conjugate compound, for the treatment of ovarian cancer. AEZS-108 is currently in a Phase 2 trial in advanced ovarian and advanced endometrial cancer in Europe.

Juergen Engel, Ph. D., President and CEO of Aeterna Zentaris stated, "We are very pleased with AEZS-108 gaining orphan-drug designation for ovarian cancer from the FDA as it would provide it with extra market exclusivity protection. We look forward to reporting the final results from our ongoing European Phase 2 study in ovarian and endometrial cancer, later this year."

...

---------------- 

Aeterna cancer treatment gets orphan-drug status

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#13) On May 06, 2010 at 2:29 PM, ragedmaximus (< 20) wrote:

SO according to the charts the market will crash in 120 days! 4 months give or take a few days!  september!

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#14) On May 06, 2010 at 4:22 PM, NYCFOOLIO (< 20) wrote:

12 - sorry...thats what I meant....thoughts on AEZS? looks good for now?

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#15) On May 06, 2010 at 7:38 PM, portefeuille (99.56) wrote:

I am currently more or less "neutral" on AEZS.

 

update.



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#16) On May 07, 2010 at 12:14 AM, awallejr (82.72) wrote:

Does the chart in #15 reflect the 1000 point intra day drop today or the 348 end of the day drop?

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#17) On May 07, 2010 at 12:36 AM, portefeuille (99.56) wrote:

It shows a spline interpolation of the closing values. I only use an intra-day value for the current day if I post them when the market is open. The value of the lower grey function is at around 0.4908 at 05/06/10, corresponding to a value of around 676.53 * exp (0.4908) ≈ 1105.18. The S&P 500 index was much lower intra-day, at least until they correct it, hehe ...

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#18) On May 07, 2010 at 12:40 AM, portefeuille (99.56) wrote:

(you can estimate the current values of the green trend line and the grey lines by looking at the second chart of this post.)

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#19) On May 07, 2010 at 1:03 AM, awallejr (82.72) wrote:

So we probably have more downside and then a summer rally, assuming the pattern continues.

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#20) On May 07, 2010 at 1:21 AM, portefeuille (99.56) wrote:

yes, but that would be somewhat scary to see it continue ...

the innocent beginning (see comment #15 here).



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#21) On May 07, 2010 at 1:23 AM, portefeuille (99.56) wrote:

to see

seeing

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#22) On May 07, 2010 at 2:07 AM, awallejr (82.72) wrote:

K, you are right.  That last chart would make things more scary should the market continue a decline.

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#23) On May 07, 2010 at 2:16 AM, portefeuille (99.56) wrote:

no, what would be scary is seeing the index follow my little green line, that took me about 10 seconds to find on June 23, 2009 and that has 2 parameters. 15 and 17.

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#24) On May 07, 2010 at 2:17 AM, portefeuille (99.56) wrote:

follow

continue to follow

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#25) On May 07, 2010 at 2:30 AM, awallejr (82.72) wrote:

If you are referring to #15 then over time you would be predicitng wider and wider swings over time I suppose.

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#26) On May 07, 2010 at 2:46 AM, portefeuille (99.56) wrote:

The grey lines are just an add-on, I think they will become more or less irrelevant pretty soon. I would not be surprised if the green trend line were to remain somewhat relevant for large parts of the next few years (or few decades, hehe ...). 

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#27) On May 07, 2010 at 2:47 AM, portefeuille (99.56) wrote:

somehow my grammar is worsening in the early morning. sorry for that ...

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#28) On May 07, 2010 at 2:08 PM, portefeuille (99.56) wrote:

update.



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#29) On May 07, 2010 at 2:29 PM, portefeuille (99.56) wrote:

non-logarithmic version.



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#30) On May 07, 2010 at 9:40 PM, IIcx (< 20) wrote:

Hey portefeuille,

You have been spot on -- the odd thing is the notion this correction will dive deeper. Yet, when was the last time you saw a 3 month correction happen in little more then a week?

The air is thin up here ;)

 

Best, IIcx 

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#31) On May 10, 2010 at 10:23 AM, portefeuille (99.56) wrote:

update.



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#32) On May 10, 2010 at 12:47 PM, USNHR (68.69) wrote:

Didn't drop below the gray line.... hmmm.

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#33) On May 10, 2010 at 1:25 PM, rofgile (99.33) wrote:

Nice update.

 

Your chart seems to be the playbook again : )

 -Rof 

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#34) On May 10, 2010 at 5:32 PM, cashkid79 (94.23) wrote:

To add something in response to russiangambit (#4) ...

-courtesy of Bloomberg ...

“Language is more important than actions at this point, because the markets are very expectations-sensitive now, and language now has enormous impact on expectations,” said Gregory Hess, a former Fed researcher who’s an economics professor at Claremont McKenna College in California and a member of the Shadow Open Market Committee, a group of economists that critiques the Fed

Disclosure: I'm not part of SOMC

I think: Watch the charts, for ultimate efficiency, it's essential (technical analysis) information to have (relative to market fluctuations as this post has now drawn attention to), but you need to have software and it has to be set appropriately (as port is obviously an expert at this or more proficient than 99% at worst:) and remember timeline makes big differences when looking at the data (also any reference points to the data displayed) ...

Timeline also plays into when information is actually released vs when the numbers are pinned to in time ... common sense ... 

Also, factor in the 'stuff' like I posted above to get an idea about market reactions and how much of this stuff is rational or emotional or biased or based on response to news releases or changes in monetary / fiscal policy and then remember that markets 'price in' announcements immediately (in theory) but there is sometimes a curve between information dissemination throughout all investors/brokers (hopefully this is something everyone reading already knows) ...

If you or your broker or fund manager can get a handle on the pulse of this or get lucky with enough parts of it that were left out, then there is NO reason to not make money (for charitable causes;) - but any evidence otherwise would be great and I welcome it (always open to learning more, hehe)

Of course, now there are also also electronic trades to factor in that are changing the dynamic of how the markets react (more people becoming their own brokers, automated trades, and a few other things ...)

cashkid79

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#35) On May 10, 2010 at 5:36 PM, cashkid79 (94.23) wrote:

Oh and did I mention, find good companies to buy, haha

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#36) On May 10, 2010 at 9:22 PM, topsecret09 (38.86) wrote:

  S and P Triple TOP... ??   Then the drop ? After the relief rally......      TS     

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#37) On May 10, 2010 at 9:42 PM, NYCFOOLIO (< 20) wrote:

can someone please explain what port's charts are saying...any chance anytime a chart is posted; someone provide a 2 sentence description of the illustration? I am sure it would help and be appreciated by more than 1 person (me)...thanks in advance

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#38) On May 10, 2010 at 10:02 PM, portefeuille (99.56) wrote:

#37 You could start reading here. I simply noticed in June 2009 that a certain kind of curve is a nice fit to quite a few segments of charts I looked at (just look at the pictures included in that post). I think the current rally (the one that started in March 2009 for the S&P 500 index has a decent chance of "following that green trend line" for a few more months and a "slim chance" of following it for a few years. The grey lines are simply "1.1 * green line" and "0.9 * green line". They gave a decent trend channel when I introduced them and I think they still do. The chart obviously suggests "selling" when the S&P 500 index is at around the upper grey line and "buying" when it is slightly below the green line. The wiggly green line is similar to the usual semi-logarithmic chart of the S&P 500 index connecting the daily closing values with the "differentiating property" (suggested by anchak in comment #24 (and #25-28, hehe) here) that it is a spline interpolation.

I usually do not comment on the chart when I post it because there is usually nothing really new to say ...

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#39) On May 10, 2010 at 10:12 PM, portefeuille (99.56) wrote:

index has

index) has

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#40) On May 10, 2010 at 10:17 PM, NYCFOOLIO (< 20) wrote:

haha...thankx port...but still confused...not asking you to give advice to sell or buy; but can you provide what a comment about what the chart is saying when you do post for us simple beings?...thanks

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#41) On May 11, 2010 at 1:41 PM, portefeuille (99.56) wrote:

update.



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#42) On May 11, 2010 at 1:51 PM, portefeuille (99.56) wrote:



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#43) On May 12, 2010 at 8:10 AM, cashkid79 (94.23) wrote:

Charts tied to index = systemic factors, historical trends, market pulse, a variety of analytical tools/indicators/oscillators/etc. I'm not going into here the settings and relevance, but port feel free to add anything --> predicting the future is impossible, but with the right combination of skill sets, beating it is easy, making money off of it (in theory) would seem extremely easy, however, just ignore me completely for now, I have another final in two hours...

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#44) On May 12, 2010 at 8:21 AM, cashkid79 (94.23) wrote:

I'm sorry, gotta say ... there is a conflict of interest, sharing information is great, but knowing where, how, and how much to share is better ... just that in my case, I don't have a job but as a student for the next day ... no matter what happens, CAPS will always (the members, most) give you great advice, especially PORT (that should be a ticker, ha)

Here's some interesting info to tie into the chart postings and watch the reactions:

'The US government will issue reports on the trade deficit, Treasury budget and energy supplies today.'

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#45) On May 12, 2010 at 10:12 AM, portefeuille (99.56) wrote:

continued here.

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