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portefeuille (99.56)

chart4

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30

May 12, 2010 – Comments (31)

update of the usual figure displaying the S&P 500 index (see this post).



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the short explanation. 



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31 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On May 12, 2010 at 10:17 AM, IIcx (< 20) wrote:

Thanks portefeuille; rec +1

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#2) On May 12, 2010 at 12:20 PM, dragonLZ (99.69) wrote:

Thanks for keeping us updated. +1

p.s. What does your other charts say? Is Bayern going to win Champions League? Is Olic going to score again, pass Messi and become the top scorer?

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#3) On May 12, 2010 at 2:31 PM, USNHR (68.69) wrote:

is it a coincidence that most of our trading is generated by computers and that port used a computer to create this curve?

or Maybe Port is working for some government agency that is "in charge" of the economic recovery? "keep her between the grey line boys"...

Port what do you know about last thursdays "fifteen minutes of mayhem"?

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#4) On May 12, 2010 at 2:43 PM, portefeuille (99.56) wrote:

Computers played only a minor role in this. The green sunction is proportioal to t^0.37, the grey functions are 0.9 and 1.1 times the green function. So Kindergarten mathematics that was known to Greek children a few thousand years ago, hehe ...

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#5) On May 12, 2010 at 2:51 PM, portefeuille (99.56) wrote:

Port what do you know about last thursdays "fifteen minutes of mayhem"?

I know that I was having fun (see comment #128-140 here), as were others (see for example comment #6 here).

 

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#6) On May 12, 2010 at 2:52 PM, portefeuille (99.56) wrote:

sunction

function

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#7) On May 12, 2010 at 3:36 PM, NYCFOOLIO (< 20) wrote:

please - what is the chart saying? quick short statement

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#8) On May 12, 2010 at 3:52 PM, NYCFOOLIO (< 20) wrote:

hey Port - also, in the past, you stated that a certain stock has a good chance of being a DAX component....can you share?

 

Was it Qgen? cant remember...thanks

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#9) On May 12, 2010 at 4:00 PM, EnigmaDude (98.06) wrote:

Its saying that the market moves in a semi-predictable fashion.  But you have to draw your own conclusions!

(was that short and quick enough for ya?)

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#10) On May 12, 2010 at 4:09 PM, portefeuille (99.56) wrote:

#8 yes, Qiagen (QGEN) and Aixtron (AIXG), see comment #9 here.

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#11) On May 12, 2010 at 4:24 PM, CoastalTrader (94.66) wrote:

Hey port.  You don't visit the Cil anymore?

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#12) On May 12, 2010 at 6:18 PM, rexlove (99.36) wrote:

so port - looking at the chart - looks like I can expect the S&P to top out at 1250 or so in the next month or two?

should be interesting - 1250 seems totally reasonable. I'll use this number to time the closing of my ultrashort and ultralong positions here in CAPS.  

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#13) On May 12, 2010 at 11:11 PM, sentinelbrit (89.39) wrote:

I wrote on someone else's blog my market view but can't find it. On the surface, it seems crazy that the market is where it is given the economic uncertainties around the world. However, we do have low interest rates in the US and Europe which are likely to stay that way for some time; bond yields are also historically low; we also have what amounts to quantitative easing in Europe which is very bullish for equities (we'll see if the ECB sterlises its bond purchases), and profits are growing. Valuations are a mixed bag, but Europe looks good value. Technology looks expensive but I suppose strong growth in profits will offset that. It seems more companies are raising capital which soaks up liquidity - so not good. Sentiment is okay - there are enough doubters out there to make it worthwhile remaining invested. All in all, the background is favorable for equities.

I know you like biotech companies. I just bought Gilead. The shares are just too cheap to pass up.  

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#14) On May 12, 2010 at 11:40 PM, Momentum21 (96.33) wrote:

I was just reading a piece on Bloomberg about the forced housing "slowdown"in China and how some views would say that will benefit equities as the year progresses. More savings will go into equities there...just like more will go to equities/metals here with inflationary pressures on the horizon and housing in the back seat. 

Over the past decade equities were in the back seat to housing...

There are many doubters and rightfully so with the unprecedented financial activity. I would definitely not be on the short side of the $1 trillion jolt in the short-term...  

Gilead does look attractive... 

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#15) On May 13, 2010 at 11:05 AM, portefeuille (99.56) wrote:

update.



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non-logarithmic version.



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The upper grey line is at around 1237.18 at 05/13/10.

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#16) On May 13, 2010 at 11:13 AM, IIcx (< 20) wrote:

maybe its just me but the time frame seems to short for the correction to be over, betting we'll put in a double top and roll back down for a few weeks.

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#17) On May 13, 2010 at 2:16 PM, mrsteve429 (< 20) wrote:

I cant even see this without my glasses.

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#18) On May 14, 2010 at 6:34 AM, YodaBuffett (< 20) wrote:

Port, I was wondering what online brokerage you use?

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#19) On May 14, 2010 at 1:28 PM, portefeuille (99.56) wrote:

#18 a German brokerage.

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#20) On May 14, 2010 at 4:25 PM, portefeuille (99.56) wrote:

update.



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#21) On May 17, 2010 at 10:49 AM, wolverine1987 (< 20) wrote:

I'm with that other guy--I have no idea what these charts mean.  

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#22) On May 17, 2010 at 11:11 AM, portefeuille (99.56) wrote:

#21 The second chart of this post explains the first chart and the updates, as do this post and comment #38 here.

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#23) On May 17, 2010 at 12:31 PM, portefeuille (99.56) wrote:

update.



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#24) On May 17, 2010 at 1:51 PM, portefeuille (99.56) wrote:

S&P 500 index in EUR, DAX (blue) and EURO STOXX 50 index (green).



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#25) On May 18, 2010 at 11:27 AM, portefeuille (99.56) wrote:

update.



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#26) On May 18, 2010 at 11:13 PM, TSIF (99.96) wrote:

Good stuff Port...I think we are going to break out of your trend lines this week, but it's been a long intersting run!!  It's been awhile since we dropped below it, but it HAD to happen sooner or later!  :)

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#27) On May 19, 2010 at 7:24 PM, portefeuille (99.56) wrote:

update.



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#28) On May 19, 2010 at 8:00 PM, portefeuille (99.56) wrote:



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#29) On May 19, 2010 at 8:03 PM, portefeuille (99.56) wrote:



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#30) On May 19, 2010 at 8:12 PM, portefeuille (99.56) wrote:



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#31) On May 19, 2010 at 8:21 PM, portefeuille (99.56) wrote:

continued here.

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