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portefeuille (99.60)

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15

May 19, 2010 – Comments (82)

update of the usual figure displaying the S&P 500 index (see this post).



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I think it will turn up again. boredom continues, hehe ...

82 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On May 19, 2010 at 9:13 PM, Momentum21 (80.66) wrote:

A quick hit of 1100 today, flat-ish tomorrow and a big surge on Friday...off we go... : )

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#2) On May 19, 2010 at 10:38 PM, sentinelbrit (85.95) wrote:

Hey Port - I just posted a few more articles on Satyam on my last blog. I am more positive on the stock. I will buy more on weakness.

Re your chart - one reason I bought some stocks over the past couple of days is that I am hoping we're at support.

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#3) On May 19, 2010 at 11:14 PM, portefeuille (99.60) wrote:

we're at support

for the friends of "moving averages".

some simple ones.



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some exponential ones.



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#4) On May 19, 2010 at 11:17 PM, portefeuille (99.60) wrote:

So that 200 day exponential average is apparently very close to that lower grey line in my chart (just as it was at "the February 2010" low). Thus if you are ashamed to say that you bought because of my chart you can say you based it on the 200 DEMA, hehe ...

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#5) On May 19, 2010 at 11:22 PM, portefeuille (99.60) wrote:

I do see one major problem though. Let's say 1000 people made an average of $1000 because they somehow "listened to the trend channel". That would  be a million and I guess the spreadsheet and copy&paste work was worth it. But what if now 2000 late adopters come and lose $1000 on average because it "does not work any more" ...

So you late adopters. Don't ruin it!

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#6) On May 19, 2010 at 11:29 PM, dragonLZ (99.33) wrote:

Porte, I think we'll deep below your bottom line, kind of what happened back in July. Maybe not right away, but within few weeks for sure. JMO.

p.s. Do you know where Backnang is? 

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#7) On May 19, 2010 at 11:47 PM, sentinelbrit (85.95) wrote:

I'm really not much of a technical guy. The S&P 500 is right on the trend line, so I hope it holds but I am a little worried it won't. I still think that very few people believe the rally that we've seen is justifiable on the economic fundamentals. This is supportive. Also, some stocks have got hammered big time and are way off their 52 week high. I suppose the bears would say this is a sign of a bear market. For me, the fact that interest rates are going to remain low in the US and Europe for some time is a positive for stocks. The recent decline in bond yields should also be good for stocks. As you pointed out in another blog, European economic growth is picking up. I think this will be the swing factor as people realize it's not as bad as first thought and the weak euro is going to do great things for exporters, particularly German investors. I was surprised to see the EWG (ETF that is invested in Germany) is really not down much despite all the bad press.

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#8) On May 20, 2010 at 8:50 AM, portefeuille (99.60) wrote:

DAX with (200 day EMA).



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#9) On May 20, 2010 at 8:58 AM, portefeuille (99.60) wrote:

I was surprised to see the EWG (ETF that is invested in Germany) is really not down much despite all the bad press.

I guess low expected 2010 P/E (KGVe) and expected dividend yield (DIVe) for most of the components helps ...



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#10) On May 20, 2010 at 9:08 AM, portefeuille (99.60) wrote:

The consensus P/E and dividend yield expectations for 2011 for Allianz are currently at around 6.97 and 5.8%. This is just ridiculous. Either the estimates are too high, or it is time for a significant "multiple expansion" ...

 

---------------

German, French Bonds Rise, Peripheral Debt Falls Amid Crisis

May 20 (Bloomberg) -- German and French government bonds gained and debt securities of so-called peripheral nations such as Spain slumped as stocks declined amid concern Europe lacks a united policy response to resolve its debt crisis.

The gain pushed 10-year yields to the lowest since at least 1990. French Finance Minister Christine Lagarde said France wouldn’t follow German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s ban on so- called naked short selling of government debt. Spanish bonds fell as the government’s borrowing costs increased at a sale of 10-year securities.

“It’s little bit scary, as it’s difficult to see a quick resolution to the situation,” said Elwin de Groot, a senior market economist at Rabobank Groep in Utrecht, Netherlands. “We are going to have more volatility and that will keep demand for the bunds strong.”

The 10-year bund yield declined two basis points to 2.74 percent as of 1:07 p.m. in London, after reaching 2.73 percent earlier. The 3 percent security due July 2020 gained 0.22, or 2.2 euros per 1,000-euro face amount, to 102.28.

Investors are favouring the safest assets outside Europe. The spread between the bund and 10-year Treasuries narrowed 6 basis points to 54 basis points. Japanese 10-year securities yielded 148 basis points less than the bund from 147 basis points yesterday.

...

---------------

So the alternative is a 2.74% 10-year bund yield ...

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#11) On May 20, 2010 at 9:09 AM, ragedmaximus (< 20) wrote:

 YOU can throw all charts out the window like the plumeting market until greece blah blah blah and everyone else fixes everything under the sun dont buy ANY stock unless you SHORT it cause it's all headed down this MONTH!

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#12) On May 20, 2010 at 9:18 AM, portefeuille (99.60) wrote:

Allianz shares (ALV:GR) are one of my larger positions by the way, as are shares of BASF (BAS:GR), Bayer (BAYN:GR), Commerzbank (CBK:GR), Daimler (DAI:GR, DAI), Deutsche Bank (DBK:GR, DB), Deutsche Telekom (DTE:GR, DT), E.ON (EOAN:GR), HEN3:GR - Henkel (HEN3:GR), Infineon (IFX:GR), Lufthansa (LHA:GR), RWE (RWE:GR), SAP (SAP:GR, SAP), Siemens (SIE:GR (SI), ThyssenKrupp (TKA:GR) and "DAX candidates" HeidelbergCement (HEI:GR) and Lanxess (LXS:GR).

 

 

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#13) On May 20, 2010 at 11:23 AM, portefeuille (99.60) wrote:

the "top outperform members" list (see here).

June 17, 2009.

1 portefeuille 11717.78
2 translator999 11505.77
3 BravoBevo 11072.75
4 AndreylikesMTL 10279.20
5 Number1CramerFan 10097.20
6 hdgf2 9744.36
7 foolsMeThrice 9311.02
8 fransgeraedts 9268.77
9 mgiv 9028.61
10 hdgf1 8969.08
11 baseballdude 8076.53
12 hansschmidt 7903.08
13 mantil 7661.46
14 Trimalerus 7583.46
15 anticitrade 7529.98
16 tirezpour 7083.45
17 stockcommander 6730.72
18 EV38 6719.53
19 jogafra 6654.38
20 firstMY 6547.01

(from here)

hdgf2 -> portefeuille2
hdgf1 -> portefeuille3
hansschmidt -> portefeuille6
mantil -> portefeuille5
tirezpour -> tirezsur -> portefeuille4
Number1CramerFan -> lanterntrades

 

August 23, 2009.



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(from comment #6 here)

 

May 20, 2010.



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a somewhat related post by jakilathehun.

The Double Elite Century



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#14) On May 20, 2010 at 11:24 AM, portefeuille (99.60) wrote:

so, very little change in those "top20" ...

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#15) On May 20, 2010 at 11:28 AM, portefeuille (99.60) wrote:

and time for portefeuille to regain the #1 spot, grrrr .....

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#16) On May 20, 2010 at 1:04 PM, IIcx (< 20) wrote:

remember the first rule, when they panic get greedy ;)

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#17) On May 20, 2010 at 1:14 PM, Momentum21 (80.66) wrote:

buying more of ATPG...hope support is near! : )

12.75 executed...double down 

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#18) On May 20, 2010 at 1:25 PM, IIcx (< 20) wrote:

not sure its a great time to buy a company who is working in the Gulf Momentum21 unless they are part of the fix. 

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#19) On May 20, 2010 at 1:31 PM, portefeuille (99.60) wrote:

#18 if they were not "in the Gulf" the shares would, mutatis mutandis, cost much more than $13 currently. I think ...

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#20) On May 20, 2010 at 1:34 PM, IIcx (< 20) wrote:

so far this is an orderly sell off (profit taking) -- keep an eye on TBT, if it rises as equities fall we may need to step to the sidelines. So far, this is an equity correction and one that's long overdue.

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#21) On May 20, 2010 at 1:35 PM, IIcx (< 20) wrote:

#19 Very good point!

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#22) On May 20, 2010 at 1:47 PM, IIcx (< 20) wrote:

here we go? -- watch for the short squeeze.

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#23) On May 20, 2010 at 3:00 PM, portefeuille (99.60) wrote:

EURUSD.



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#24) On May 20, 2010 at 3:04 PM, portefeuille (99.60) wrote:

good old euro ...



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#25) On May 20, 2010 at 3:14 PM, dragonLZ (99.33) wrote:

Porte, Do you know where Backnang is? Have you ever been there?

p.s. If you don't want to answer, please say it. Like this, I think you maybe didn't see my question from #6. Thanks.

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#26) On May 20, 2010 at 3:26 PM, portefeuille (99.60) wrote:

I saw it and went asleep a few minutes later, I think (it was around 5:30 a.m. in Backnang at the time ...) and forgot about it. sorry.

I know nothing about Backnang.

http://maps.google.com/maps?q=backnang

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#27) On May 20, 2010 at 4:17 PM, portefeuille (99.60) wrote:



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(sceptical) hmm.

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#28) On May 20, 2010 at 5:41 PM, simplemts (< 20) wrote:

It broke!

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#29) On May 20, 2010 at 8:34 PM, portefeuille (99.60) wrote:

EURAUD.



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#30) On May 20, 2010 at 9:30 PM, dragonLZ (99.33) wrote:

Thanks Porte. I thought maybe you lived in Baden Wuerttemberg.

p.s. I told you we'll dip below your chart's bottom line...

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#31) On May 20, 2010 at 10:15 PM, portefeuille (99.60) wrote:

I told you we'll dip below your chart's bottom line...

Well, the S&P 500 index has dipped into the territory outside of that trend channel quite a few times. It just has not closed "below the grey line" in a few months ... 

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#32) On May 20, 2010 at 10:22 PM, portefeuille (99.60) wrote:

That green trend line may still be relevant for a few more months or years. A lot of things can happen (see comment #56 here).

 

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#33) On May 20, 2010 at 10:31 PM, portefeuille (99.60) wrote:

 

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#34) On May 20, 2010 at 10:33 PM, portefeuille (99.60) wrote:

somewhat frustrating to see that almost no one is able to generate significant "alpha". "beta" rules, hehe ...

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#35) On May 20, 2010 at 10:40 PM, portefeuille (99.60) wrote:

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#36) On May 20, 2010 at 11:52 PM, portefeuille (99.60) wrote:

EURJPY.



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#37) On May 21, 2010 at 1:28 AM, portefeuille (99.60) wrote:

EURUSD.



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#38) On May 21, 2010 at 1:29 AM, portefeuille (99.60) wrote:

I think I will start selling some of my boring DAX company shares and put the money into some "high beta" stuff, hehe ...

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#39) On May 21, 2010 at 1:49 AM, portefeuille (99.60) wrote:

#38 some sell candidates (a recent list of my larger positions is here).

BAS:GR - BASF

BAYN:GR - Bayer

DAI:GR (DAI) - Daimler

DTE:GR (DT) - Deutsche Telekom

EOAN:GR - E.ON

HEN3:GR - Henkel

LHA:GR - Lufthansa

RWE:GR - RWE

SIE:GR (SI) - Siemens

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#40) On May 21, 2010 at 11:32 AM, portefeuille (99.60) wrote:

update.



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#41) On May 21, 2010 at 12:57 PM, IIcx (< 20) wrote:

what goes up must come down?

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$USD&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p27355147799&a=179326555

 

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#42) On May 21, 2010 at 1:17 PM, portefeuille (99.60) wrote:

#41 that chart by goodvibe4ever.



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#43) On May 21, 2010 at 1:26 PM, portefeuille (99.60) wrote:

#42 did not work. the chart.

 

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#44) On May 21, 2010 at 1:41 PM, portefeuille (99.60) wrote:

AUDJPY.



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#45) On May 21, 2010 at 3:58 PM, IIcx (< 20) wrote:

#42 is a Daily chart so time will tell but if the USD drops its likely the markets will rise. They seem to be tracking currency closely this week.

I have to admit I haven't seen the markets this pessimistic for quite a while.

Staying Long into next week but I'm not in high multiple stocks which could still see a big downside this quarter.

I still think #27 is tracking but I'm an eternal optimist.

Have a great weekend. 

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#46) On May 21, 2010 at 4:23 PM, portefeuille (99.60) wrote:

I still think #27 is tracking

yes, no need to give up yet.

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#47) On May 21, 2010 at 4:27 PM, portefeuille (99.60) wrote:

I'm an eternal optimist.

vanamonde appears to be a believer as well ...

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#48) On May 21, 2010 at 4:47 PM, portefeuille (99.60) wrote:

update.



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When I devised those grey lines I did not look at that 200 day exponential moving average. I swear, hehe ...

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#49) On May 21, 2010 at 4:49 PM, portefeuille (99.60) wrote:

... but there can be little doubt that the 200 DEMA likes that lower grey line and the 50 DEMA likes my little green trend line ...

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#50) On May 21, 2010 at 4:52 PM, portefeuille (99.60) wrote:

okay, some "positive announcements over this weekend" and the rally is alive and kicking again.

maybe, hehe ...

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#51) On May 21, 2010 at 5:04 PM, portefeuille (99.60) wrote:



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#52) On May 21, 2010 at 5:19 PM, portefeuille (99.60) wrote:












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#53) On May 21, 2010 at 6:35 PM, portefeuille (99.60) wrote:

On May 09 (ET) I made a few European equity "recommendations".

---------------

okay, why not ...

Here are some companies of the telecom and finance sectors you could look at.

AXA (CS:FP),
Banco Santander (SAN:SM, STD),
Crédit Agricole (ACA:FP),
Deutsche Bank (DBK:GR, DB),
Erste Group Bank (EBS:AV),
ING Groep (INGA:SA, ING),
Intesa Sanpaolo (ISP:IM),
OMV (OMV:AV)
Telefónica (TEF:SM, TEF),
Telekom Austria (TKM:AV),
UniCredit (UCG:IM).

---------------

(from comment #12 here)

 

---------------

relative changes May 7 (a Friday) close -> May 10 close in European trading.

AXA (CS:FP) +21.87%,
Banco Santander (SAN:SM, STD) +23.217%,
Crédit Agricole (ACA:FP) +18.653%,
Deutsche Bank (DBK:GR, DB) +9.237%,
Erste Group Bank (EBS:AV) +15.179%,
ING Groep (INGA:NA, ING) +24.587%,
Intesa Sanpaolo (ISP:IM) +19.676%,
OMV (OMV:AV) +6.820%,
Telefónica (TEF:SM, TEF) +11.979%,
Telekom Austria (TKA:AV) +6.434%,
UniCredit (UCG:IM) +20.933%.

---------------

 

---------------

relative changes May 7 close -> May 21 close in European trading.

AXA (CS:FP) 11.82 EUR -> 13.02 EUR +10.15%,
Banco Santander (SAN:SM, STD) 7.71 EUR -> 8.60 EUR +11.54%,
Crédit Agricole (ACA:FP) 9.06 EUR ->  9.32 EUR +2.87%,
Deutsche Bank (DBK:GR, DB) 45.80 EUR ->  47.99 EUR +4.78%,
Erste Group Bank (EBS:AV) 28.00 EUR ->  30.78 EUR +9.93%,
ING Groep (INGA:NA, ING) 5.51 EUR ->  6.41 EUR +16.33%,
Intesa Sanpaolo (ISP:IM) 2.01 EUR ->  2.20 EUR +9.45%,
OMV (OMV:AV) 1.63 EUR ->  1.76 EUR +7.98%,
Telefónica (TEF:SM, TEF) 15.36 EUR ->  15.58 EUR +1.43%,
Telekom Austria (TKA:AV) 9.17 EUR ->  10.06 EUR +9.71%,
UniCredit (UCG:IM) 1.63 EUR ->  1.76 EUR +7.98%.

average realtive difference +8.38%.

All those stocks (I think) opened higher on May 10 than they closed on May 7, but when I wrote comment 12 above European markets were called up by maybe 1% ("if at all") ...

---------------

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#54) On May 21, 2010 at 6:39 PM, portefeuille (99.60) wrote:

EURUSD was at around 1.29 at the time. It is currently at around 1.257. So those stocks were still "up as a group" calculated in USD at the end of European trading on May 21 (today ET, yesterday my time ...).

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#55) On May 21, 2010 at 11:34 PM, IIcx (< 20) wrote:

porte,

There are numerous things wrong with this picture. Germany stepped up today but France has yet to voice an opinion and the "Bozos" in Spain and Italy have yet to even set a date for resolution.

Does someone "need" to grab them by the throat and shake them awake to the issues before this all becomes impossible to rescue?

This is far from over and we all know how long it takes the EC to book a room to even start a dialogue.

Next week may bump up but the last thing on any buy list is Europe stocks until there is some resolution to this madness?

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#56) On May 22, 2010 at 12:04 AM, dragonLZ (99.33) wrote:

But there is good news about Germany.

Today, Bayern Muenchen is going to beat Internazionale Milano (Italy) in the finals of the Champions League (which is held in Madrid, Spain).

That way Germany is once again going to show who's the real leader of the Europe.

Deutschland, Deutschland über alles,
Über alles in der Welt,
Wenn es stets zu Schutz und Trutze
Brüderlich zusammenhält.
Von der Maas bis an die Memel,
Von der Etsch bis an den Belt,
 Deutschland, Deutschland über alles,
  Über alles in der Welt!

p.s.

For what is worth, in my opinion, two best Europian stocks right now are STD and ING. 

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#57) On May 22, 2010 at 4:19 AM, portefeuille (99.60) wrote:

#56 see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deutschlandlied#Use_after_World_War_II.

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#58) On May 22, 2010 at 4:46 AM, portefeuille (99.60) wrote:

realtive

relative

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#59) On May 22, 2010 at 4:48 AM, ragedmaximus (< 20) wrote:

portefeuille, I am now today hearing we tested the bottom now so it's up up and away again or is it going down another 20 % what's your chart interpertation. I am starting to hate the weekends cause I like trading so much but sat out last 2 weeks minus buying some dell before earnings and lost a couple hundred bucks but I think I would have actually made profit if it wasn;t for this crazy week which I now believe more in this chart stuff now as a good indicator and will now be paying ALOT more attention to them

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#60) On May 22, 2010 at 12:59 PM, portefeuille (99.60) wrote:

I am now today hearing we tested the bottom now so it's up up and away again or is it going down another 20 % what's your chart interpertation.

... or it could "go sideways". As always, anything is possible.

I really know very little about technical analysis (about as much as I want to know about it, maybe a little more ...). 

A casual glance at the chart posted in comment #40 above "suggests" that a resumption of the rally would not be all that surprising, but I prefer to not base my trades too much on these kind of considerations. I guess I am not a "top down" investor.

If you take away my trend lines (which are unknown to "all but 50 or so" investors) and add in the exponential moving averages (which are known to maybe 20% of investors and those 20% might hold around 95% of the total stock market capitalisation) you are left with more or less the same picture, as the 200 / 50 day exponential moving average closely follows the lower grey / green line.

I really prefer leaving the interpretation of my chart to the observer.

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#61) On May 22, 2010 at 1:46 PM, IIcx (< 20) wrote:

3 videos from Elliot Wave International related to Bull vs Bear, Gold, and credit.

http://www.elliottwave.com/freeupdates/archives/2010/05/21/Prechter-on-Yahoo-Finance--On-Schedule-for-a-Very-Very-Long-Bear-Market-.aspx

 

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#62) On May 22, 2010 at 4:46 PM, dragonLZ (99.33) wrote:

Bayern lost. I'm very disappointed with the way they played.

I guess Germany is not the leader of the Europe any more. Look for DAX to close lower next week.

p.s.

Btw., I agree talks about the double dip are utter nonsense.

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#63) On May 22, 2010 at 5:38 PM, portefeuille (99.60) wrote:

#61,62 Not sure which one I dislike more, that football club or that "analyst" ...

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#64) On May 22, 2010 at 5:40 PM, portefeuille (99.60) wrote:

okay, I think I dislike the football club more, the analyst is just one of many bad ones.

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#65) On May 24, 2010 at 1:14 PM, portefeuille (99.60) wrote:

update.



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#66) On May 24, 2010 at 2:08 PM, IIcx (< 20) wrote:

interesting moves today - looks like exports will be a silver lining for the weak Euro

http://shipping.capitallink.com/

 

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#67) On May 24, 2010 at 2:16 PM, dragonLZ (99.33) wrote:

Porte, this is my guess: We'll go back into your chart, then we'll fall out of it again...

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#68) On May 24, 2010 at 2:17 PM, IIcx (< 20) wrote:

BMTI Daily Snippet

http://shipping.capitallink.com/bmti/bmti.html

 

May 24, 2010 12:32 PM 

"With Far East holidays before the weekend and European holidays today, markets are quieter. What is reported on the Capes doesn't suggest much overall change in voyage rates to China: Tubarao/China at US$ 29.00-29.50/mt, WC Australia/China at US$ 11.75/mt, on t/c the "Quorn" (179,000 dwt, 1996) is booked Port Talbot 24 May TCT via South America redelivery China at US$ 65,000 daily and Elena Sea 150k dwt delivery Mundra 12/16 June TCT via Black Sea to China at US$ 31,000 daily. However, sentiment is improved as owners see more enquiry further forward and the BCI is marked up on all routes. This more bullish outlook also sees the FFAs move upward with May/June trading circa US$ 44,500 daily (up from US$ 42,000 daily)."

 

www.bmti-report.com 

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#69) On May 24, 2010 at 5:43 PM, portefeuille (99.60) wrote:

This Coming Barrage Of Bullish Data Will Blow Away The Bears

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#70) On May 25, 2010 at 8:56 PM, portefeuille (99.60) wrote:



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#71) On May 26, 2010 at 9:41 AM, portefeuille (99.60) wrote:

update.



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#72) On May 26, 2010 at 8:04 PM, IIcx (< 20) wrote:

What's wrong with this Picture?

Forgive me if I get links wrong, it has been a while since I posted chats.

Larger Version

 

LiBorg

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#73) On May 26, 2010 at 8:08 PM, IIcx (< 20) wrote:

The LieBorg is the top panel, the second panel USD, and the last the Euro. Are we living the "Lie"?

Best, IIcx 

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#74) On May 26, 2010 at 9:17 PM, IIcx (< 20) wrote:

lol, it reminds me of a learning experience.

As a kid, I drove a "hack" (taxi) in the late '60's and got to see the "scene" for what it was.

The best fare was from the airport but conventions were always fun with a "wait here, 'we'll be right back'" fare and nice tip.

Hours would pass on their "dime" and sure enough, "true to their word", they'd climb back into a Taxi with a thank you, grin, and a new ask.

Fellow drivers explained that the Banker's Convention is a "scene" to avoid. Bankers don't Tip so the best fare will be found at the airport.

Realizing they were all at the airport, I decided to run the hotels for short hop fares and a hope for a "true to their word".

I picked up a fare from a 4* hotel and when we headed off, they asked why it was so hard to find a Taxi downtown.

I explained that there was a Banker's Convention in town and Banker's don't Tip.

The "I told you so" lasted in the back seat to the end of the fare; wife to husband.

As the Bankers and their remarkable counterparts exited the cab, the "teller" (left to pay the fare) tipped me a dime over the cost and thanked me for the insight.

The last group of individuals on the face of the earth to decide our fate should be ...

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#75) On May 26, 2010 at 9:32 PM, IIcx (< 20) wrote:

Taxi Drivers?

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#76) On May 27, 2010 at 10:49 AM, portefeuille (99.60) wrote:

update.



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#77) On May 27, 2010 at 4:15 PM, portefeuille (99.60) wrote:

update.



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a small hop and the index is back inside the channel ...

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#78) On May 27, 2010 at 4:17 PM, portefeuille (99.60) wrote:

Porte, I think we'll deep below your bottom line, kind of what happened back in July. Maybe not right away, but within few weeks for sure. JMO.

Yes, looks like July 2009.

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#79) On June 02, 2010 at 12:07 PM, portefeuille (99.60) wrote:

update.



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#80) On June 02, 2010 at 4:57 PM, portefeuille (99.60) wrote:



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#81) On June 02, 2010 at 4:59 PM, portefeuille (99.60) wrote:

still fighting with that red line, I guess ...

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#82) On June 02, 2010 at 5:08 PM, portefeuille (99.60) wrote:

continued here.

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