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JimVanMeerten (63.19)

Chile's economy headed south

Recs

3

February 23, 2011 – Comments (6) | RELATED TICKERS: ECH

Chile is having economic problems and that is reflected in the MSCI Chile ETF (ECH).  If its not already on your watch lists it should be.


The iShares MSCI Chile Investable Market Index Fund (the "Fund") seeks investment results that correspond generally to the price and yield performance, before fees and expenses, of the MSCI Chile Investable Market Index (the "Underlying Index"). The Underlying Index is a free float- adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure broad based equity market performance in Chile. The Underlying Index consists of stocks traded primarily on the Santiago Stock Exchange. As of September 30, 2009, the Underlying Index's three largest sectors were utilities, materials and industrials. The Fund will at all times invest at least 90% of its assets in the securities of the Underlying Index or in depositary receipts representing securities in its Underlying Index.

Technical Factors:

1 - 100% Barchart technical sell signal

2 - Trend Spotter (tm) sell signal

3 - Trading below its 20,50 and 100 day moving averages

4 - 16.56% off its recent high

5 - Relative Strength Index 29.58% and tanking

Jim Van Meerten is a portfolio advisor to Marketocracy Capital Management.  He shares his knowledge and experience from over 40 years of investing in stocks, mutual funds and ETFs onBarchart.com  in his daily blog -- Barchart Portfolio Blogs.


Through Marketocracy Capital Management  you can have a Separately Managed Account that mirrors his Barchart Van Meerten New High portfolio.

6 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On February 23, 2011 at 4:06 PM, davejh23 (< 20) wrote:

A lot of markets peaked more than 3 months ago.  Many large-cap US stocks peaked months ago as well...even as small caps and tech rallied hard.  If small caps close out the week below the 50 day, I wouldn't be suprised to see most US indexes follow the emerging markets shortly...especially with the widespread world turmoil and all the caution being expressed in recent earnings reports.

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#2) On February 23, 2011 at 4:06 PM, goldminingXpert (29.43) wrote:

Aw man, here I am going around writing articles promoting Chilean LAN Airlines (LFL). Way to be a buzzkill.

I really don't see Chile having issues as long as copper stays up. 

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#3) On February 23, 2011 at 4:12 PM, Valyooo (99.40) wrote:

Dave,

What large cap stocks?  The market has been up a crapload...those are the major US large caps.  I know you are bearish, but come on, the past is facts.

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#4) On February 23, 2011 at 4:28 PM, davejh23 (< 20) wrote:

valyooo - I've commented on multiple occasions that, on significant up days in the markets, my watchlist of large cap dividend stocks has been red across the board. 

GIS has looked good in February, but it peaked in October

KFT peaked in October

JNJ peaked in November

HNZ peaked in December

KO peaked in December

WMT peaked in January

PG peaked in January

...all as small caps, financials, tech, etc... have rallied almost non-stop.  I don't make this stuff up..."the past is facts"...

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#5) On February 23, 2011 at 4:35 PM, davejh23 (< 20) wrote:

valyooo - You know I'm not attacking you, right?  I just believe there's plenty of evidence to argue both sides right now...just trying to present an opposing viewpoint to make you think your thesis through fully.  If you do more due diligence and still come to the same conclusions, at least you'll have greater conviction in your investing going forward.

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#6) On March 11, 2011 at 3:25 AM, benedekgb (< 20) wrote:

I think the title is wrong.

just because a countries etf is bearish and heading south, doesnt meanit economy is in tatters. the 2 have almost nothing to do with each other.

 

other points, pls dont flog me:

- sk and taiwan etfs are steeply down, but the economies are still growing healthly, much faster then the US.

- turkey is some 30% off is november heigh, although somewhat bullish last week or so, neither have much to do with the economy, which is stable and growing rapidly. for the record gdp growth was 11% 2010 and is expected to be 5% 2011-12, which is a deceleration. Albeit one that was expected and know all the way through 2010 rally. In fact this 5% growth is good growth, as the extra 6% came mainly for financial heating, which brings more risks the rewards. the biggest cause for turkeys etf drop is profit taking. it is still relativley undervalued, and was too at its height. uncertanties in the area do not help. but oi am quite sure, money will be ploughed back in to turkish etfs soon.

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