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floridabuilder2 (99.31)

Chimpcontest: Alive.................. Floridabuilder Blogging: Dead

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April 13, 2010 – Comments (34)

CHIMPCONTEST STILL ALIVE!!

Some may wonder what happened to all my old blog posts and I will address that below.  However, more importantly the chimpcontest and its $500 payout is still alive.  I expect to close a home in late August and as we get closer I will be able to state the contest end date.

I'm wondering whether the #1 speculative stock pick returns from the best minds on CAPs are outsized over a short time frame of 5-6 months.  That in itself is worth $500.

I still plan on having other chimpcontests and might decide to deep dive the leading stock picks of the chimpcontest through the chimpcontest profile.  Ok that was repetitive..  After all the key to CAPs is identifying great stocks, social networking, and bad mouthing our government.

Interestingly the contest leader to date is TDRH (an oil and gas man/worker) who picked an oil and gas related stock, WEL, that was just bought out by HAL.  It shows how someone with industry knowledge can make a speculative play that pays quickly.  TDRH is the #29 ranked player in CAPs

In 3rd place is the stock IKAN.  This stock was selected by the #24 player in CAPS, Ultralong. 

I'm going to be paying close attention to the top picks at the end of the contest and re-arranging who can enter in future contests.  My goal is to have a bucket of speculative picks to choose from every 3-6 months.  Paying out a winner to get people to play my stupid contests is fine with me.  At some point I plan on putting money back to work in the stock market and I would rather pay people to provide me picks vs. doing my own research. 

Lazy?  Yes, but I think I made that personal trait clear in my posts the last 4 years.  Research takes a lot of time and I have shown consistent ability to make marginal speculative picks

FLORIDABUILDER IS DEAD, LIVE FROM HELL!!

Announcer:  Live from 3,200 miles beneath the Earth's surface, your host, Bobbbbbbbbbbb Crane!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Audience:  Rousing cheers

Announcer:  Tonight's Guests....  Floridabuilder the dead blogger, cooking tips from Jeffrey Dahmer, and motivational expert Idi Amin.

Audience:  Standing ovation

Bob Crane:  Our first guest is Floridabuilder, a blogger from the CAPs community who recently had all his finest works deleted and ended his blogging life.  Welcome to Hell Florida!

Floridabuilder:  Thanks, it's great to be here

Bob Crane:  I'm a little surprised you landed in Hell.  You must have done some evil deeds.... murder, fornication?

Floridabuilder:  Actually I volunteered to come down here.  Heaven is getting really crowded with all those suicide bombers and virgins.  Plus most of the metal bands I listen to will wind up down here, so that is another plus.

Bob Crane:  What does Satan have you doing?  Breaking rocks, driving a cab?

Floridabuilder:  Well, they have me working for Beelzebub selling sub-prime mortgages to people who sold sub-prime mortgages for a living.  I guess it is better than manual labor.

Bob Crane:  That is the whole point of Hell, get used to it.

Bob Crane:  On to serious topics.  Why did you quit blogging and delete all your old posts?

Floridabuilder:  I got a call, dots were being connected and my paper trail would have led certain people to identify me.  It is as simple as that.  I never had fear about what I wrote about builders because it was all true.  How is a company going to come after me if I say they are overstating their land value substantially when their own people are telling me that?

Floridabuilder:  The point of my blogging all along was to provide people information that the industry wasn't being truthful about or hiding.  However, I also defended the industry when other bloggers who have no idea what their talking about made exaggerated claims.  When people invest their money they expect that management is being honest and I have found honesty a lacking trait from homebuilding executives, which makes you wonder about any stock investment.

Bob Crane:  Hershey's Kiss?

Floridabuilder:  No thanks.  There is no water in Hell and I'm always so thirsty

Audience: Welcome to Hell !!!!!!!! 

Bob Crane:  You were neutral last year on builders, didn't even blog about them, but now you are pretty negative.

Floridabuilder:  Here are some key points that I have been saying this year.  1) I was hearing several months ago from the builders that sales were below expectations, 2) I have blogged several times about the impact of the tax credit expiring and the buying down of interest rates being bigger factors than people think in driving sales in 2009, 3) I have more recently blogged that no land has been developed in 4 years so the builders have been mainly monetizing their A and B finished lot assets, thus their balance sheet portfolios are outsized with raw land and C finished lots, and 4) a number of builders have not written down the value of the raw land and C finished lots and they are lying to Wall Street when they say they are done with write offs.

Bob Crane:  On that last point, because it is new.....  Why are they telling Wall Street that they are done writing down land if it isn't true?

Floridabuilder:  A few builders are telling their division presidents they will lose their jobs if they write down dead assets.  They feel that when the market turns up, revenues jump and they are earning money, that is when they will write down those assets, because Wall Street won't care about the balance sheet any more only the income statement and earnings growth.

Bob Crane:  Why is that a problem?

Floridabuilder:  Because if housing doesn't rebound as quickly as the executives think then these builders are in real trouble.  1) Their portfolio of bad land assets can't be monetized quickly if at all (future revenues), 2) Most of the A and B land assets on the market have been bought or have been bid up substantially and 3) Virtually no one is developing land in A and B submarkets.  So these builders could see their revenue footprint shrink quickly generating less and less cashflow to pay for the large amount of debt they hold as well as fixed costs.  A select few of these stocks are time bombs.

Bob Crane:  So your saying that we could see a few homebuilding executives down here?

Floridabuilder:  Yes and their auditors too....

Floridabuilder:  Basically the best balance sheets are NVR, MDC and SPF in that order.  At this point there is no reason to kick up more dirt and state who has the worst balance sheets.  Instead, I would suggest anyone wanting to invest in this industry focus on cash first and community count growth second.  Both are reported quarterly.

Bob Crane:  Well Florida it was great having you on my show.... now go sell some mortgages!!!

FINAL THOUGHTS

I will continue changing my home building red and green thumbs over time based on long term risk, but future blogging will be done on chimpcontest and related only to the contest, payouts and talking about stocks.

Seacrest Out

34 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On April 13, 2010 at 7:21 PM, floridabuilder2 (99.31) wrote:

Obviously I am done for good, thus the deletion of all old posts.  However, I do plan on spending more time on other people's blogs discussing stocks, the economy, etc...  If you want to ask me about builders or housing on other people's housing/builder related blogs that is ok, because it is random and hidden.

 

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#2) On April 13, 2010 at 7:36 PM, UltraRetirement (36.91) wrote:

I feel pretty confident that IKAN has better staying power than any other company currently in the top 10 of the contest. WEL should stand in it's way for perhaps 1-2 more weeks but IKAN will eclipse all! I'm shocked anyone wanted WEL, but hey, good for them. It's embarassing though to be losing to MBIA right now... that will change shortly.

UltraLong

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#3) On April 13, 2010 at 8:40 PM, kdakota630 (29.52) wrote:

Hey.  What happened to all your old blogs?

(just kidding)

I'm curious though... if you had your old blogs deleted because you were concerned someone in the industry might identify you, don't you think they still could based solely on your rather unique sense of humour?

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#4) On April 13, 2010 at 9:40 PM, rhallbick (99.64) wrote:

My, my, Mr. FB, you are full of surprises.  Actually, I was more concerned about the disappearance of your blogs than about the chimpcontest.  I’m glad to hear that you were steering the ship on this.

I wish you the best in your business venture.

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#5) On April 13, 2010 at 9:45 PM, rexlove (99.42) wrote:

UL

 

I'm biting at your heels with BEAT. It's the one to BEAT! 

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#6) On April 13, 2010 at 9:51 PM, GeneralDemon (23.34) wrote:

Seacrest,

Just possibly, the highest service provided here to CAPsters (us) is a knowledgeable person within the industry (you) who can call out the Enronesque frauds.

So, do whatever it takes to continue the Markopolos. If it's easier to smoke 'em out while hiding in the trees with a banana - so be it.

BTW, I've had one builder tell me I was 'dead' and another tell me someone will find me in a ditch. No kidding! And I'm still here and they know where I live - so maybe you're not in so much danger.  

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#7) On April 13, 2010 at 10:21 PM, TMFUltraLong (99.95) wrote:

Rexlove,

BEAT is going to crap out in the $9.80's so don't get too excited =)

UltraLong

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#8) On April 13, 2010 at 10:36 PM, Tastylunch (29.21) wrote:

>- I got a call, dots were being connected and my paper trail would have led certain people to identify me.  It is as simple as that.  

I figured as much. FWIW I think you are making the right decision for youself by retiring eventhough all of us would undoubtedly pefer that you stay. I was amazed you did that Fool interview at all given your once stated future plans.

I imagine that article not your blog is what attracted the dot connectors. Those articles get a lot of offsite syndication circulation and are widely read.

even though all of what you said is undoubtedly true that still won't stop someone from trying to mess with you. The aggravation is probably not worth it given what you have to lose.

hope things go well for you FB.

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#9) On April 13, 2010 at 10:40 PM, Tastylunch (29.21) wrote:

Oh and thanks again for all the great insight over the years. I know I learned/benefited a lot. I'm sure others have as well.

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#10) On April 13, 2010 at 10:51 PM, binve (< 20) wrote:

FB

I second every thing Tasty just said. I am very grateful for all the education you have provided us over the years, and am very sorry that the information is causing you potential issues / aggravation. That is not worth it, and it is very understandable that you took down your old posts. Thanks again for everything man!! And good luck with the new business!!.

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#11) On April 13, 2010 at 11:00 PM, Option1307 (29.70) wrote:

Sad to see you go, your knowledge was truly the best out there and it will be missed, but I understand that your future is more important.

Best of luck!

 

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#12) On April 13, 2010 at 11:06 PM, Option1307 (29.70) wrote:

On a side note, Tasty wtf is going on with your Caps score buddy? Your falling down to join the ranks of lowly me, get out of the 30's man, this is my turf! Ha, jk!

 

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#13) On April 13, 2010 at 11:11 PM, SnapDave (56.65) wrote:

That sucks. All good things must end I guess.

Thanks for sharing your knowledge FB.

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#14) On April 13, 2010 at 11:19 PM, SockMarket (41.50) wrote:

HOGAN'S HEROES!!!!

sorry I just didn't know anyone else under 40 even knew about the show... One of the best all time.

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#15) On April 13, 2010 at 11:58 PM, Tastylunch (29.21) wrote:

 Option1307

Bad bets on casinos my friend, very bad bets on casinos.

Not really worried about it, only happened becasue I refused toclose losing picks which I let happen due to accuracy farming aims.

CAPS enables some bad habits! In real life I would never let this occur!

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#16) On April 14, 2010 at 1:42 AM, floridabuilder2 (99.31) wrote:

#8, bingo..... I screwed up....

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#17) On April 14, 2010 at 6:24 AM, TMFBabo (100.00) wrote:

I'm very sad to see your blogs go, but I agree with your decision.  Thanks for teaching the rest of us about builders - I know I learned a lot from you.

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#18) On April 14, 2010 at 8:12 AM, ralphmachio (24.66) wrote:

What a shame... I found the info helpful. Good while it lasted. 

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#19) On April 14, 2010 at 11:29 AM, MLGtrader (98.69) wrote:

So do you think homebuilders are still a good shorting opportunity through the summer?

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#20) On April 14, 2010 at 11:53 AM, ocsurf (< 20) wrote:

Sucks to see your blogging stop FB....I enjoyed your blogs and your humor...UP THE IRONS!!

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#21) On April 14, 2010 at 12:58 PM, dragonLZ (99.57) wrote:

On your last blog, I said MHO is a great stock. Now that's gone (but I hope you remember that).

Today, MHO is up 9%...

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#22) On April 14, 2010 at 1:04 PM, leohaas (32.18) wrote:

Sorry to see you go! I suspect alstry is behind this ;)

You list 4 reasons for being negative on builders. I'd like to add a 5th: the number of homes in foreclosure. Builders cannot compete with prices of foreclosed homes. C locations are awash in foreclosures, B locations have plenty to give the builders a headache...

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#23) On April 14, 2010 at 3:36 PM, TCWeaver (99.85) wrote:

I haven't said much but I've read it all. Thanks a bunch I've laughed alot and learned a little. As a small builder in Philadelphia I have seen some of it go down such as the pink bunny of THP and half built projects. Thanks, you will be missed.

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#24) On April 14, 2010 at 3:51 PM, TDRH (99.66) wrote:

SPF has the best balance sheet?   What caused the change of heart?

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#25) On April 14, 2010 at 5:24 PM, USNHR (34.50) wrote:

Does this have anything to do with the 2009 Feste award?

 

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#26) On April 14, 2010 at 5:25 PM, rexlove (99.42) wrote:

Bring it ON UL. I love a little trash talkin. ;)

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#27) On April 16, 2010 at 12:26 PM, bothisellhigher (28.90) wrote:

FB Done for Good!  Say it ain't so!  What with gold and silver being manipulated, home builders lying out their a**, bankers banqueting on us while lying, cheating and stealing, gouging our eyes out with their charges, fees and fines...why...we need you more than ever in these times of greed and perversity.

As for your Chimpcontest...the winner will be the company that dumps the least...my money would be on MBIA.

And thanks tasty for pointing out the absurdity of CAPS ratings as they now stand.   

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#28) On April 16, 2010 at 2:43 PM, ibarz (89.49) wrote:

Hi FB2,

Why have you taken down your blog? 

 

ibarz

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#29) On April 18, 2010 at 2:51 AM, TMFUltraLong (99.95) wrote:

rexlove,

Notice BEAT hit 9.80 on the dot and has sold off relentlessly since then? =)

UltraLong

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#30) On April 20, 2010 at 2:24 PM, rexlove (99.42) wrote:

UL,

Minor pullback. It's still trending higher .... give it some time. As for IKAN - there's a stock that's been going lower for 2 weeks now. Hope your prediction for being at $4 in 4-6 weeks is right. 

Look who's number 3.... 

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#31) On April 20, 2010 at 2:28 PM, rexlove (99.42) wrote:

UL,

Minor pullback. It's still trending higher .... give it some time. As for IKAN - there's a stock that's been going lower for 2 weeks now. Hope your prediction for being at $4 in 4-6 weeks is right. 

Look who's number 3.... 

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#32) On April 28, 2010 at 2:41 AM, FleaBagger (29.53) wrote:

Sorry to see you go. Also, I forgot what my pick was. Anyway, if I ever find a place to live, you're welcome there any time (regarding a blog conversation I had over at my blog). My addy is more or less:

cleverd  at  gmail dot com 

 

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#33) On January 07, 2012 at 12:06 AM, d1david (29.14) wrote:

can he come back from the dead?

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#34) On September 19, 2012 at 12:47 PM, Mary953 (71.56) wrote:

So I get back, go lookin for a few specially dear folks, and find that at least one has had to fade into the woodwork (no pun intended)  I hope you are doing well and you will be in my prayers.  Thanks for the joy of the discussions, FB.  At least (I hope) Alstry now knows that I was never you.  I was never that smart.

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