China after the Olympics
An Olympics brings a lot of economic activity preparing for it and I truly wonder how China will do after the Olympics. It is getting close now, so another 3 months of business support from the Olympics and then that is gone.
We had Expo in Vancouver in 86 and it was enormously benefical for businesses directly involved, but the cost of it was an enormous burden on the masses. There was a lot of public money diverted from important things like education and health care to pay for the one time only infrastructure. I suppose some of the infrastructure was long term, but there was a massive build up and tear down around it. It was major cuts to other things for at least 5 years to pay for Expo, and the money never went back to those other things.
So, China has two economic hits, a slowing export economy due to the over indulgence of the rest of the world and the loss of the one time only business from the Olypmics.
The savings rate is such that China can ride the economic down turn, but I still think we'll see a fairly significant economic down turn.