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XMFSinchiruna (26.50)

China's Stimulus Plan is a HUGE Boost for Commodity Demand!



November 10, 2008 – Comments (3)

$586 billion buys A LOT of infrastructure... get ready for a dramatic resurgence for the heavily oversold metals sector, especially copper. Iron ore, met coal, aluminum... all should make a strong recovery on this development (at least they could be expected to do so in a rational trading environment... which we still don't quite have).

NEW YORK, Nov 10 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks headed for a higher open on Monday, with big exporters including General Electric (GE.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) , set to lead gains following China's plan of a multibillion economic stimulus to shore up the world's fourth largest economy.

GE shares jumped 3 percent to $19.40 before the bell after China approved on Sunday $586 billion in new government spending between now and 2010, focused largely on infrastructure and social projects. For details, see [ID:nN09395080].

In another boost to sentiment, shares of American International Group (AIG.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) rose more than 40 percent to $3.03 before the bell after the U.S. Federal Reserve hiked its support for the insurer to about $150 billion after an initial bailout attempt failed to stem massive losses. [ID:nLA322782].

Equity markets around the world jumped as the prospect for recharged growth tempered fears about a deep global recession. Japan's Nikkei .225 rose nearly 6 percent overnight, and benchmark indexes in Europe were up 2 percent or more.

"Part of what we've been concerned about as we look at this global recession was what was China's response going to be," said Arthur Hogan, chief market analyst at Jefferies & Co in Boston. "We believe China is standing firmly behind their economy and that's going to help. The first move was the pop we saw in the price of oil."

S&P 500 futures SPc1 rose 13.10 points and were above fair value, a formula that evaluates pricing by taking into account interest rates, dividends and time to expiration on the contract. Dow Jones industrial average futures DJc1 climbed 104 points, and Nasdaq 100 NDc1 gained 13.50 points.

Any stabilization in Chinese demand could be a boon for big U.S. manufacturers and exporters, including Caterpillar Inc (CAT.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) , Boeing Co (BA.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) and GE, as they grapple with a deepening economic downturn at home. All three are constituents of the Dow.

REVIVING CONFIDENCE China rides to metals commodities sector rescue

China’s almost $600 billion economic stimulus programme announced this weekend is designed to improve confidence in the country’s infrastructure construction sector and should have a positive knock-on effect for steel and base metals.

Author: John Chadwick
Posted:  Monday , 10 Nov 2008


China has unveiled an economic stimulus program which it says totals $586 billion. It is aiming to bolster domestic demand and help avert a global recession. According to Andrew Batson for the Wall Street Journal, "though the two-year package appeared to include some previously announced measures, its size was clearly designed to revive the fading confidence of Chinese businesses and consumers, and impress foreign governments. Asian shares rallied sharply early Monday on the Chinese announcement, with benchmark stock indexes in Tokyo, Hong Kong and Shanghai all jumping close to or above 5% in the early hours of trading.

"The announced sum of four trillion yuan represents about 16% of China's economic output last year, and is roughly equal to the total of all central and local government spending in 2006. New spending of even half that amount would be substantial next to China's six trillion yuan annual budget for this year."

The interest for the mining industry is that the plan includes spending in housing and infrastructure. In particular, there is hope for a turn round in the steel sector.

Macquarie Research had just analysed steel industry inventories in China and noted that "despite recent production cuts, steel mill inventories remain under pressure as end-user demand has collapsed. While the mills are lowering prices to clear inventories, the buyers' strike continues as traders await further price falls. Even more severe production cuts may be expected in the short term as mills struggle to clear inventories. This de-stocking is particularly severe as mills will try to work down stocks, not just to previous levels, but to even lower levels in the face of uncertain demand.

"Over the past week, the hot rolled coil price dipped to $419/t ex-vat, down by 1.5% from last week and cold rolled coil reported at $535/t ex-vat, down by 2.3% from last week."

However, Macquarie also reported that "index iron ore spot prices rallied last week for the first time in many months. The two main index providers, Platts and Metal Bulletin, both reported a small recovery. Platts' 62% Fe price rose to $60.00-60.50/t cfr, while the Metal Bulletin quote hit $61.55/t, both up 5% on the week. There appears to have been a rise in the volume of orders for the first time in a while, perhaps signalling an easing of the credit squeeze, which has hit demand in China.

Reported stocks of iron ore remain high, but current shipping schedules suggest a major collapse in Chinese iron ore imports in November and December; Vessel line-ups suggest a 20-25% reduction in Australian and Brazilian iron ore exports in November and December from levels of a few months ago; and Indian exports are down by 80% year-on-year.

Macquarie also reported that along with the major fall in global and Chinese aluminium prices, it was hearing "of a steep decline in aluminium raw material input cost including price drops in alumina, carbon anodes and thermal coal. As a result, we note some temporary relief on smelters' cost margins."

Rio Tinto today revised its estimate of iron ore shipments from the Pilbara region of Western Australia to between 170 and 175 Mt (100% basis) in 2008. As a result of the reduced demand from its customers and reduced shipments, the annualised run rate of iron ore production from its Pilbara mines will be reduced by approximately 10%.

Tom Albanese, Chief executive, Rio Tinto, said, "Operations continue to perform well but demand has continued to decelerate. This reduction is a prudent move to align production with revised customer delivery requirements in the light of the fourth quarter drop in Chinese demand. We believe this will be a short, sharp slowdown in China, with demand rebounding over the course of 2009, as the fundamentals of Chinese economic growth remain sound."

John Chadwick is Proprietor/Editor of International Mining magazine -




3 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On November 10, 2008 at 11:02 AM, kdakota630 (28.92) wrote:

I was thinking the exact same thing.  Glad to have read your blog for reassurance that I hadn't screwed up my anaylsis.

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#2) On November 10, 2008 at 11:16 AM, GNUBEE (< 20) wrote:

Sinchy, I can't wait. This propeller beanie is really itchy.

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#3) On November 10, 2008 at 4:32 PM, XMFSinchiruna (26.50) wrote:


lol... mine too!


further analysis forthcoming

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