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goldminingXpert (29.49)

ChinaMedia Express thread #2: why the drop today?

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February 11, 2011 – Comments (17) | RELATED TICKERS: CCME.DL

The last post on CCME I started had 75+ comments and I think it is time for a new one for the sake of more rapid loading.

Anybody know why CCME is off nearly 10% today? I can't find anything on the wires other than my general analysis of Citron's track record (http://seekingalpha.com/article/251981-a-comprehensive-scorecard-for-citron-research) which really shouldn't be a market mover (if you are long CCME, you already looked at Citron's track record before now, right?). What's up? My prognosis for the company remains negative, though I am not trading it and if Citron doesn't produce a Part II fairly soon, I'll start to wonder what's going on with the short side...

17 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On February 11, 2011 at 3:04 PM, goldminingXpert (29.49) wrote:

Well, this is pretty negative, though it is merely a recap.CCME trading right at $12.00 now, should move hard one direction or other soon.: http://www.thestreet.com/story/11005450/2/china-mediaexpress-in-a-bind-against-shorts.html

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#2) On February 11, 2011 at 3:10 PM, DragontoadX (< 20) wrote:

Hmm.. just found this "anonymous" letter to Deloitte: http://www.deloittewatch.com/

 

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#3) On February 11, 2011 at 3:10 PM, goldminingXpert (29.49) wrote:

hmm, this will be exciting, let me grab some coffee and check out the deloitte letter. Thanks for the link.

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#4) On February 11, 2011 at 3:15 PM, goldminingXpert (29.49) wrote:

I was hoping they had more specific details. This deloittewatch is basically a rehash of everyone else's arguments. If you call yourself deloittewatch, you should have some juicy insight into deloitte.

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#5) On February 11, 2011 at 3:19 PM, DragontoadX (< 20) wrote:

...but it sure seems more like something that came from the short camp.. perhaps something brewing for this evening/the weekend

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#6) On February 11, 2011 at 3:23 PM, goldminingXpert (29.49) wrote:

Citron almost always releases when the market is open, obviously with Muddy, Bronte and the others it is harder to forecast when/if they write more. And Seekingalpha (should anyone be using that outlet) is completely unpredictable in when they publish something. Sometimes they publish within a couple hours, and sometimes it takes quite a bit longer.

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#7) On February 11, 2011 at 3:24 PM, DragontoadX (< 20) wrote:

...nice website too.. seems to have been set up solely for that letter lol

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#8) On February 11, 2011 at 3:27 PM, DragontoadX (< 20) wrote:

Citron almost always releases when the market is open

 The last one was on a Sunday, although i think I've see some people claiming that they changed the date after releasing it.. not sure if that's true or not

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#9) On February 11, 2011 at 3:29 PM, goldminingXpert (29.49) wrote:

yeah, even as a bear on the stock, I don't think highly of that report -- while I trust Citron, it seems like there are a lot of "me too" CCME bashers, a camp I initally was in, as normally that many reports aren't all wrong.

I have to admit, DragontoadX, that I've been way too mean toward you. I apologize. While you and I still disagree about the likely outcome here, I have to admit there has been quite a few unscruplous activities among the short side, and as such, some fairly decent reasons to suspect CCME might be a decent buy. 

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#10) On February 11, 2011 at 3:34 PM, goldminingXpert (29.49) wrote:

The last one actually probably was on Sunday, or else very early Monday morning, as the stock was down a bit pre-market Monday and absolutely got nailed in the first few minutes of trading right after the 9:30ET open early Monday morning. That said, they usually release during market hours to maximize their effect on the market.

Autochina (AUTC) now off more than 10% today. I think that one has a much more provable short case than CCME at the moment -- I'm curious as to why all the CCME shorts don't go over and short AUTC until Citron returns. 

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#11) On February 11, 2011 at 3:39 PM, DragontoadX (< 20) wrote:

..no wories.. I actually don't remember you being too mean to me, just argumentative.. perhaps I'd have to reread the thread lol..

I've enjoyed the debate thus far, and if I can be convinced there is fraud via discussion here, I'll be much better off than if it takes an irrefutable report from a short seller... so far though obviously, I'm not convinced, but I will admit to having an uneasy feeling that this is still being so hotly debated by everyone

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#12) On February 11, 2011 at 3:43 PM, goldminingXpert (29.49) wrote:

If nothing else, CCME has rung in the new year with a high drama that is far more exciting than the usual investing bull/bear debate. I'm glad to have played a small role in the excitement.

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#13) On February 11, 2011 at 3:50 PM, DragontoadX (< 20) wrote:

I'm curious as to why all the CCME shorts don't go over and short AUTC until Citron returns. 

 ...as best I can tell, either:

1. they are anticipating Citron and/or MW part 2 

2. they know something that hasn't been revealed yet (maybe part of Citron/MW 2)

3. they are overconfident in face of the long response

 If I were a short, I would personally be happy to get out while I'm ahead given the long response

 

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#14) On February 11, 2011 at 4:36 PM, magnetpal (< 20) wrote:

Though I am not into CCME, I personally feel, when a company takes so long to respond, that sounds fissy to me. If their records are clean, why do they take this much time?

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#15) On February 12, 2011 at 9:01 AM, forexnutca (85.21) wrote:

Wow, this is the most respectable thread yet.  Kudos to you guys.

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#16) On February 12, 2011 at 5:58 PM, DragontoadX (< 20) wrote:

magnetpal-

The word is that they are not saying more because they are currently in a "quiet period", although many have argued that they could certainly have said more than they have.  I don't know the legal aspects of what you can say in this period myself.  It has been suggested by some that the timing of the reports during the "quiet period" was a strategic one because it limited management's ability to respond.  Again, I don't know the legal details of the quiet period, but this is the claim by longs.

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#17) On February 12, 2011 at 6:25 PM, DragontoadX (< 20) wrote:

Someone on the iHub boards has translated CCME's "tongzhi" document into english... Notably, the document indicates that CCME's patent has won the awards that it has been claimed not to have won:

 "For every Highway Bus Television Broadcasting System participating bus, the Center will provide the free installation of patented broadcasting equipments with an automated control system. The system patent number is: ZL 2005 2007 37527 and was awarded the first prize for “Science and Technology Improvement” and the second prize for “Science and Technology Innovation” by the National Science and Technology Improvement Award Committee."

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