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goldminingXpert (29.55)

Citigroup Opinions

Recs

15

April 17, 2009 – Comments (16) | RELATED TICKERS: C

I posted a simple pitch on my C red thumb Wednesday: "Out of gas, I do believe."

Since then I received two replies. One is mere trading advice, while the other is worthy of examination. The first was, "you will regret that come this friday. Because this stock is going to be rallying right upto until the close on Friday." Friday is here and my pick is green so we're cool there.

Reply #2:

This is one day, Like GS sank for a day then came back up C will do the same. Profit taking for weekend the continue rally into next week. Not much left out there to hold banks back as the major ones have reported this quarter. My prediction by end of year is C at 10.00 Boa at 20.00 Gs at 150.00 Dow at 9500 s&p at 950 all of the above HOLDING those numbers! The Market recession is coming to an end. Dont miss the bottom. Oh wait you have.

The first part is accurate. GS did fall and then rebound. We obviously disagree over outlook for banks in the long-run. He then throws out a series of wildly optimistic forecasts--BAC at 20? Really? Really Really? However, the last line is a kicker. "Dont miss the bottom. Oh wait you have."

This is a beautiful emotional suckerpunch. The moment I read this, I was like, oh man, oops. Then I took a step back and thought for a minute. Despite being a nice rhetorical attack, it is completely based in illusion. Let's take a look at the poster (Deerhunter) and my own picks on C.

The picks are in chronological order. (start date)

 

GMX (Nov 2007) Red Thumb: +3 points

DEER (March 2008) Green Thumb: -10 points

GMX (March 2008) Red Thumb: +8 points

DEER (Sep 2008) Green Thumb +36 points

DEER (Oct 2008) Green Thumb -1 point

DEER (Nov 2008) Green Thumb -17 points

DEER (Nov 2008) Green Thumb -28 points

DEER (Nov 2008) Green Thumb -5 points

GMX (Nov 2008) Red Thumb: +7 points

GMX (Dec 2008) Green Thumb: +82 points

DEER (Jan 2009) Green Thumb -32 points

DEER (Jan 2009) Green Thumb: -11 points

DEER (Feb 2009) Green Thumb: -35 points

DEER (Feb 2009) Green Thumb: -36 points (This pick was closed at $1.02... less than a dime from C's ALL-TIME LOW. And I missed the bottom? He bailed RIGHT AT THE BOTTOM!)

GMX (Feb 2009)Green Thumb: +80 points (started Feb. 09 to catch the recent rally.)

GMX Active Red Thumb: +6 points

DEER Active Green Thumb: +100 points

Totals:

GMX 5 picks 100% accuracy 188 points. (GMX is also the score leader on C)

DEER: 11 picks: 18% accuracy -37 points.

While Deer gets an A+ for the insult, and his one lucky catch of a bottom was nice, I think it is clear that his ramblings about a new bull market will quickly be proven to be lunacy. This is a person who has been green-thumbing a terrible investment the whole way down. I especially liked November where he managed three successive green thumbs losing 50 points in a four week span.

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There is no new bull market. The only people calling for it are people with spotty and or/non-existant track records. The people who know this market (Bears) are still bearish.

16 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On April 17, 2009 at 9:07 PM, portefeuille (99.66) wrote:

but there are players catching up, like fransgeraedts, tigerpack, foolsmethrice, portefeuille, ...

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#2) On April 17, 2009 at 9:12 PM, anchak (99.86) wrote:

GMX....While I cannot condone the comment made by deer ( I saw that in the morning ...and was wondering what you would do) - you predictably come out with this trademark juvenile thing about going thru picks and points and accuracy!

Does it really take any fortitude or intellectual capacity to classify your C pick simply one of many high beta bet - which paid off.

If you want to comment about a stock like C-  please put up some analysis - which value adds.

Please stop this pick, points, accuracy , 99+ rating nonsense!

 

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#3) On April 17, 2009 at 9:14 PM, angusthermopylae (40.11) wrote:

The trouble with saying "that was the bottom" is that you need perspective...meaning a lot of time has to have passed.

For example, those who say, "Well, obviously mid-March was the bottom, and things are only getting better" are ignoring a lot of reverberations throughout the economy.  They are willing to lay it all on the line, raise their head high, lips aquiver with anticipation, and step forward into that bright, shiny future without looking back, or down....

...and pray to hell they don't step over the edge of a cliff...

For those (yeah, including me) who say, "No way...that can't be the bottom; look at all the crap going on," all we can do is keep our heads down, shuffle our cash/stocks based on what (we hope) is a good plan, and not get caught under the perceived Sword of Damocles that is dangling over our heads...

...and, if we're wrong, we miss out on the 10-bagger that made our philosophical opponents rich...but we can still make money picking through the wreckage...

One way can make you rich, but just as easily  destroy everything you've worked for in a single week or month...

The other way can make you miss being rich, but  prepares you for the the worst case scenario..

Guess which one I recommend?  Not enough time has passed to say "That was the bottom," and too many floating mines are loose in the system for me to just sail off into the sunset...

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#4) On April 18, 2009 at 1:17 AM, goldminingXpert (29.55) wrote:

Anchak--I think it is a valuable lesson to see that even though Deerhunter has a +100 active pick on C, he is still in fact worse than a blind dart in terms of picking the stock. People might be easily suckered into following his bullish call unless they see this is his 10th bullish call on the stock and he's wrong the vast majority of the time.

August-- I totally agree with your comments. I'd rather only double my money than potentially 10x with a 82% chance of complete wipeout.

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#5) On April 18, 2009 at 1:19 AM, goldminingXpert (29.55) wrote:

Porte -- I wasn't talking overall. I meant I am the score leader on Citigroup. While Tigerpack may soon pass me overall, he isn't going to pass me for score leader on C (he has -50 points on C total and has no active pick on it.)

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#6) On April 18, 2009 at 3:14 AM, awallejr (77.67) wrote:

It really does depend upon your time horizon in the end.  I bought C at $1 simply because there was virtually not much downside risk, it was actually yielding 4% (!), and the Feds weren't going to let it collapse.  At $3-4 yeah short term it might be high, but remember this was also once a $50 stock. The one thing it does have going for it is it's international presence, so if you really do have a long term view, 5+ years, even at these prices it should prove cheap. 

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#7) On April 18, 2009 at 11:09 AM, anchak (99.86) wrote:

GMX...now you get the rec!

My suggestion to you is....you should start with a simple non-abrasive premise....and possibly explain your own position - which was I think simple broad-based points play ( I am assuming you didn't buy C calls , did you?) in CAPS.

As a simple observer - some of your recent posts have been on this vein - and hence you want to start dissociating yourself from this premise.

Incidentally, RD80 has a nice blog on Citi's earnings here.

Any investor should pore over the 10Qs of all Big Banks to understand the drivers

 

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#8) On April 20, 2009 at 11:28 AM, goldminingXpert (29.55) wrote:

Boom baby, C is down 15% today. Come to papa.

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#9) On April 20, 2009 at 10:58 PM, BravoBevo (99.97) wrote:

gmx: I commented on RD80's blog during the weekend, and i didn't see the 2 comments on your original post until this evening (when I wondered what you did to solicit those comments).  Both C and BAC (especially in comparison to other large money center banks) should provide profitable "thumbs down" trades for the foreseeable future.

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#10) On April 21, 2009 at 2:27 PM, DeerHunter73 (73.36) wrote:

Boom C is UP 10% today. My statement wasnt for points, its the fact the bank isnt going bankrupt as so many think. My comment was C should be at 10.00 by the end of the year. Ill keep my pick till then, will you?

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#11) On April 21, 2009 at 2:56 PM, DeerHunter73 (73.36) wrote:

I like the comparrison you did thou makes me take a 2nd look at a few things so thank you for that. Below youll see current active picks for both of us.

Deer Capital MarketsScore: +368.95 Accuracy: 83.33%

Gmx Capital MarketsScore: -228.47 Accuracy: 14.29%

Deer Oil, Gas and Consumable FuelsScore: +212.72 Accuracy: 80.00% 

Gmx Oil, Gas and Consumable FuelsScore: -345.50 Accuracy: 0.00% 

 DeerCommercial BanksScore: +163.62 Accuracy: 71.43% 

Gmx Commercial BanksScore: -277.92 Accuracy: 10.00%

Deer Capital MarketsScore: +368.95 Accuracy: 83.33%

Gmx Capital MarketsScore: -228.47 Accuracy: 14.29% 

Deer Metals and mining Score: +120.77 Accuracy: 100.00%

Gmx Metals and Mining Score: -581.00 Accuracy: 6.25%

Deer  Comm Equip Score: +81.55 Accuracy: 100.00%

Gmx Comm Equip Score: -42.91 Accuracy: 0.00%

I can List this stuff forever but im not going to. You made a point with C. I made one with a few current picks for the sector. You have been on caps alot longer then i have i wont deny that. Took me a while to figure this thing out and i did as we all do over time. Again this is a POINT game not real money. If i were looking at this and wondering who to ask advice from the CURRENT numbers would speak for themselves. Good luck on your C pick.

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#12) On April 21, 2009 at 8:03 PM, goldminingXpert (29.55) wrote:

I never leave winning active picks open. You know that.

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#13) On April 21, 2009 at 8:05 PM, goldminingXpert (29.55) wrote:

Gmx (ALL PICKS--Active and Closed) Oil, Gas and Consumable FuelsScore: +1200 Accuracy: 88%. Fair comparisons buddy. Fair comparisons.

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#14) On April 21, 2009 at 11:34 PM, DeerHunter73 (73.36) wrote:

I did fair, I took what we both have currently ACTIVE. As far as picks ive got a few that have been open since last year. Just havnet felt like closing them, might not till next year dont know yet.

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#15) On April 22, 2009 at 12:14 AM, goldminingXpert (29.55) wrote:

I close picks when they go significantly positive. Thus, most of my active picks are by definition currently losing. I plant 200 active seeds at a time and pick off the blossoms when they bloom. Counting my seeds versus your flowers equals a logic fail.

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#16) On April 30, 2009 at 11:05 AM, DeerHunter73 (73.36) wrote:

I did as you do and closed all the open positions i had. Now we shall see what happens after i reopend 140 or so more new ones. Whats your thoughts on the s&p going to 950 now? I said it was going to about a month ago and its on track to hit that before the end of year now.

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