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goldminingXpert (29.53)

Close all your bearish bets

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May 25, 2010 – Comments (27)

I finally feel as if the market makes sense again, which means we're going at least 500 if not 1000 dow points straight up.

Seriously, we're probably going to get a big bounce here, which might bail out the bad knife-buying in BP -- nearing stop loss -- but if you've made anything off this move (or like me, recovered some of your losses from the last year), it's time to be taking the halibut home to your cubs, because I fear a bull stampede is imminent. Medium-term outlook is still down, a close over S&P 1150 returns me to neutral, a close over 1180 would be quite bullish, 1030 is the main line I have in the sand for bulls here.

27 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On May 25, 2010 at 2:57 PM, russiangambit (29.30) wrote:

I thought we already had 4% stampede? You are expecting another one, so close in time?

I expect short covering on Friday in front ot the holiday, not tomorrow.

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#2) On May 25, 2010 at 3:03 PM, JaysRage (89.30) wrote:

I agree that it makes sense.     That's why it needs to go another 5% lower.    The market never stops at proper value either up or down.  

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#3) On May 25, 2010 at 3:04 PM, sentinelbrit (88.12) wrote:

I'm glad to hear it. But where are all your green thumbs?!

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#4) On May 25, 2010 at 3:11 PM, Griffin416 (99.98) wrote:

We hit approx. the February lows and are bouncing quite hard off them, so I kinda agree with GMX here. Huge chance we are moving right back up to the 200 day MA. What happens after that is beyond me.

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#5) On May 25, 2010 at 3:36 PM, davejh23 (< 20) wrote:

I agree with JaysRage...makes sense, so now might be the time to go short.  I'll just sit out...

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#6) On May 25, 2010 at 3:40 PM, zCreator (94.72) wrote:

I agree with goldminingXpert. It's a good time to close your bearish bets... unless you want to start gambling.

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#7) On May 25, 2010 at 3:45 PM, outoffocus (22.91) wrote:

unless you want to start gambling.

When did we stop?

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#8) On May 25, 2010 at 3:56 PM, motleyanimal (92.22) wrote:

Good call.

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#9) On May 25, 2010 at 3:58 PM, rofgile (99.30) wrote:

I have to agree with the blog post this time.  We are far oversold on fears of Europe - I wish I had more money on the sidelines, because I can see several great deals (the best I've seen in 6 months).  

 -Rof 

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#10) On May 25, 2010 at 4:01 PM, zCreator (94.72) wrote:

@7) Be my guest, I'm going long.

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#11) On May 25, 2010 at 6:12 PM, TSIF (99.96) wrote:

GMX a temporary Bull!!! 

I'm with him.  I suspect this was bottom in the short term. The European issues were an excuse to sell  There are still wildcards such as  North Korea, but there will always be wild cards.

I won't expect a bull run any higher than GMX is and would start getting a little light again around S&P 1125 unless we show strength higher. 

I'm generally a near 50/50 mix of technicals and fundamentals, so I bend my rules as I go, or do individual/bargain shopping, but this last few weeks has been pretty much a strong  drive for the technicals.

Oops, I almost forgot. I don't make predictions!   Ignore the preivous.

 

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#12) On May 25, 2010 at 6:19 PM, semper77 (32.87) wrote:

Nope, we're going to DOW 8500....

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#13) On May 25, 2010 at 6:23 PM, IIcx (< 20) wrote:

CNBC Fast Money just announced that many of the short day-traders are holding overnight and have been adding to positions on spikes.

This could make the shorts a logical target as many of the funds have been lightening up on the short end all day.

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#14) On May 25, 2010 at 7:21 PM, d1davidtiming (28.89) wrote:

I agree, as long as Spain holds up and the Korean war doesn't happen, we are going straight up for 1 to 3 weeks or more

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#15) On May 25, 2010 at 7:29 PM, Superdrol (97.25) wrote:

http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/ViewPost.aspx?bpid=395669&t=01001545002054304245

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#16) On May 25, 2010 at 9:17 PM, GenericInvestor (86.11) wrote:

GMX: What are your thoughts on the Euro? I am interested in going long PM but want to see if the Euro falls further.

 

 

And finally what about your baby WNR....? Where do you see that going? I have 3.5k shares in that.

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#17) On May 25, 2010 at 10:10 PM, goldminingXpert (29.53) wrote:

I'm very bullish on the refining complex as a whole (just entered a new green thumb on Tesoro a few minutes ago). The crack spread is up, the summer driving season and hurricane seasons are upon us, and the stocks are stuck in the mud. It makes no sense. WNR, TSO and CLMT are my favorite refining plays here.

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#18) On May 25, 2010 at 10:13 PM, goldminingXpert (29.53) wrote:

Euro is way oversold and will bounce though I have no idea what price level it will bounce from. I went flat EURUSD at 1.25 after initiating a large short position at 1.44 last summer. I left some money on the table, it seems, but I'll take 19 cents when I can get it. Look to reshort EURUSD over 1.30 if you desire.

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#19) On May 25, 2010 at 10:19 PM, bigkansasfool (70.51) wrote:

Euro isn't oversold if this is the end of the euro. The truth is that the euro is/was doomed to fail. You can't have countries that set their own fiscal policy sharing a currency. The euro was trying to be the us dollar, and europe was trying to be the united states, but without the ability to actually control the currency. I think soros has another "bank of england" situation here, and just wish I had the balls and capital to kill the euro.

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#20) On May 25, 2010 at 10:55 PM, sentinelbrit (88.12) wrote:

I've been looking at the refiners too. Tesoro and CLMT look interesting. I don't normally go in for short term trades but this might be worthwhile.

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#21) On May 25, 2010 at 11:08 PM, Momentum21 (95.77) wrote:

WNR will probably fly the highest from here but I bought VLO as a safer bet within an unloved sector. Pays a divvy as well. (bought in Dec). 

But my big bet on Sprint has paid off over the past few weeks and that baby sets up much more like WNR. : )

I like TSO as well but need to look into CLMT more. This seems like a great time to reload on the refiners.  

I hope your call follows through...nice one...and thanks for sharing. 

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#22) On May 25, 2010 at 11:41 PM, awallejr (85.43) wrote:

Market is playing into the "sell in May go away" routine followed by the "summer rally" perhaps.  Look at TOT as an oil play for real life purchase.  The stock is trading at levels when oil was selling in the $30 range.

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#23) On May 26, 2010 at 1:29 AM, cbwang888 (25.97) wrote:

I agree that we could see DOW 10,500 to 10,700 very soon.

When the future is down 200+pt this morning, the setup was done for big players' buying.

Gold/Silver got manipulated to be slightly below $1200/$18 on the future expiration day. 

I'm thinking of going long in real life on one or two of

PALL, PPLT, UCO, POT, HUN, FCX

 

 

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#24) On May 26, 2010 at 1:49 AM, Beorn10 (29.96) wrote:

I am long WNR because I anticipate more political fallout from a big hurricane season.  WNR doesn't have any refineries near the gulf, so I suspect its value will increase in relative and absolute terms.

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#25) On May 26, 2010 at 12:41 PM, russiangambit (29.30) wrote:

> This could make the shorts a logical target as many of the funds have been lightening up on the short end all day.

It looks more like people are selling into this rally today. Not a very good sign. We'll see what happens at the end of the day. If it is a shortcovering rump up in the last 30 min, that 'll be a good sign for bulls.

But I don't think anybody is going to make big bets in front of the long weekened. Everybdoy si waiting for next week.

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#26) On May 29, 2010 at 5:02 AM, spiril (30.71) wrote:

Can you elaborate on "bad knife-buying in BP" ? 

For me it seems like an incredible short(er)term value buy at the moment.

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#27) On May 29, 2010 at 9:22 AM, TSIF (99.96) wrote:

"Knife buying" as in catching a falling knife.  Who knows were bottom is? The leak isn't stopped, the liability could go over a vast area.  There is potentially a plume below the surface that could surface anwhere, including Florida Beaches.  Some analyst agree that a LOT of damage is already baked into BP's share price. They might be able to handle this from current cash and cash flow. The problem is the uncertainty and markets HATE it.  Completely depends on your risk reward ratio and your long term outlook.   Seems there might be other plays with slightly less reward, but a  lot less risk.  Good luck.

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