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madcowmonkey (< 20)

Coal in the mix? PCX

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8

March 08, 2009 – Comments (9) | RELATED TICKERS: PCX , WLT , APAGF

Not a fan of coal burning to produce energy, but at $3 PCX has some legs from here. The obama administrations can't stop burning it for their own uses in DC and you know China and Japan love the stuff. I did a fair amount of research on the stock, but what I noticed when I got onto CAPS is just how many high rated players put a thumbs up on in it in January and February. I wouldn't mind hearing some of the thoughts about PCX, since I didn't see too many pitches. 

My overall feeling on PCX is that it is undervalued........and from the discussion I had with kaskoosek and GNUBEE...platinum might be too. Although, I would just stick with the miners of platimum.

 Other additions today. WLT and APAGF:

WLT has always been a solid company that has been an easy pick in the past.

APAGF is just for fun.....the bad boy is dropping like no other. I am not sure if it is oversold, but I am also not recommending it for RL.....this one is just for fun 

9 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On March 08, 2009 at 4:39 PM, Seano67 (85.61) wrote:

Thanks for the heads-up. Not gonna go near coal, but Apco Argentina has been added to my watchlist to look at further. I hadn't even heard of the company before this, but it seems like they might be right up my alley.

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#2) On March 08, 2009 at 5:19 PM, motleyanimal (99.22) wrote:

Burning coal actually creates clouds of carbon particulates that actually cool the planet and forms rain clouds to water our organic gardens..

 

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#3) On March 08, 2009 at 7:18 PM, Tastylunch (30.00) wrote:

Sinchiruna scared me off PCX :(

http://www.fool.com/investing/dividends-income/2009/02/13/the-midnight-ride-of-patriot-coal.aspx?terms=PCX&vstest=search_042607_linkdefault

I don't think they are in as much trouble as say TCK or JRCC might be but it doesn't sound good.

I agree with him BTU is the lowest risk way to go with coal.But they are expensive, too much so for my tastes.

My personal long time fave in the industry is CLF. Great operator, low debt, potential buyout target too (which was way harbinger tried to block the ANR merger). Probably undervalued due to the one timecharges related to the failed merger with ANR. Not as cheap as PCX book wise but there is a reason for that.

ICO can be interesting if their headwall tech is panning out. Very risky as they basically a cobbled togther set of assets from bankrupt operators including the infamous Sago mines. Don't really know haven't looked at them since last summer. Might be some bankruptcy risk there.

Never really looked in to WLT & APAGF

Platinum sure is hot right, haven't really looked into it.

Haven't paid much attention to coal either now that spring is here... If I remember right Coal prices don't traditionally do well in the spring...

To be honest Oil has my eye lately...Contango is starting to diminish and you haveMemorial Day weekend on the horizon.

Copper is one commodity I want to see do better before I get too commodity crazy.

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#4) On March 09, 2009 at 9:08 AM, binve (29.32) wrote:

madcow and tasty, I agree with Tasty's comment about PCX from Sinch. Tread carefully :)

Yeah, as far as commodities go, I am with Tasty. Oil and Copper. Both look very much like they are establishing bottoms. And any sustained rally in the market will probably be led by these two most useful commodites. Becuase oil and copper are turning up, I like the broad market is poised for a rally from its oversold. We'll see if that actually pans out :)

motleyanimal,

LOL! You know, there is carbon in the air from coal exhaust. And so all of this carbon fixing via trees is inefficient. What we need to figure out is how to do carbon fixing in the air! Yes, I do believe that will solve our problems ... :)

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#5) On March 09, 2009 at 11:45 AM, madcowmonkey (< 20) wrote:

Tasty- Good article...thanks. I believe it will turn out alright for PCX with coal prices turning around. Any country that is going to a stimulus in infrastructure spending is going to need the energy. I haven't heard too much about nuclear plants as of late. I know they were a hot topic during the campaigns, but all countries have coal in place and they will be less hesitant to use them more and more. Again, the coal factories are shutting down and this will counter nicely for them when these newer agendas take place. I think all three will work out nicely....but I think PCX will be picked up more from the level they are at right now. It isn't a RL pick, I have a minimum stock price that I try to abide by.....so it really is just a learning pick. I thru in BTU and Consol after reading the article. I have picked BTU before and like/liked it.

binve- thanks for the comments. I am also into doing some stuff on technology now. Oil should be a simple pick from here. I think some of the investors are over the "it is so low" thought process right now and so many people invested in it when it hit the high 30's. We will see.....I still have no time frame for it.

animal- the reverend has spoken!

seano67- I hope it pans out for you. I didn't really look into it too much and I am just seeing how lucky I get:)

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#6) On March 09, 2009 at 2:56 PM, anchak (99.85) wrote:

Tasty.....Would you elaboarte how CLF is a coal play. Madcow... that one ( CLF ) came up on the value screener run.

I did try to evaluate some deep discount coal plays - other than picking BTU in CAPS for a while - I did not find anything enticing from a business model standpoint.....incidentally YZC has an astonishing Yield if it is to be believed.

 

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#7) On March 09, 2009 at 3:19 PM, madcowmonkey (< 20) wrote:

Pinnacle and Green Ridge No. 1 mines in Wyoming County.

February's layoffs were announced as demand for metallurgical coal used to fire blast furnaces slumped with the steel industry.

Cliffs operates iron ore mines in Michigan, Minnesota, Canada and Australia and coal mines in West Virginia and Alabama.

Ripped from an article. They do have coal mines. 

anchak and tasty- are you using the cost of coal at its current levels?

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#8) On March 09, 2009 at 3:33 PM, TMFSinchiruna (44.06) wrote:

anchak

CLF is both met coal and iron ore. They almost achieved a half/half make-up with the proposed ANR acquisition, but when that deal was scraped they retain heavier exposure to iron ore but still very significant met coal. The are, therefore, primarily a play on the steel industry.

http://www.fool.com/investing/dividends-income/2009/02/27/dont-jump-off-the-cliff.aspx

http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2008/12/11/production-is-falling-off-a-cliff.aspx

http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2008/06/12/cleveland-makes-it-the-world-takes-it.aspx

http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2008/07/17/a-us-mining-alpha-dog-heels.aspx

http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2009/03/06/the-ultimate-commodity-update.aspx

 

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#9) On March 10, 2009 at 1:30 AM, Tastylunch (30.00) wrote:

Yeah Sinchi laid it out AC, it would have been a more direct coal play if the ANR deal went down. As it is now it's an indriect play. I just think CLF is pretty beaten down due to the ANR writeoffs.

It is mostly an iron ore play so more volatile there as demand is bit more elastic there. I should have mentioned that.It's a double edged sword more diversity but more exposure to reduced demand for steel in new cars etc.It's why I'm not back in it in CAPS just yet.

I admit I'm more emotionally attached to CLF than I should be since I just happen to like the company for some reason. It's one I've followed for years now. So make sure you form you own opinion of it.

No I'm not basing it off current coal prices Madcow, I was going off tangible book. If I were seriously looking at coal I would check out met coal price trends. Coal is something i plan to look at this summer. I don't anticipate it doing much before then, but I could be wrong.

I do think Nat gas and Coal have a lot of stimulus potential but it doesn't seem like now is a good time to get on board as we are heading into spring...

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