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Commercial Real Estate Declining

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December 11, 2008 – Comments (13)

Paper economy has a post showing the status of commerical real estate, which is declining.

I've read quite a few individual stories on building in big trouble.  There's going to be more banking  losses...

 

On a different topic, there has been stories about how the blog world has changed the way the market responds, but also who was right in what they were saying about the economy.  I probably screened more then 100 blogs and followed them at least for a little while.  What's really interesting to me is the best of the blogs on the financial matters that have unfolded look like my reading list, or at least half of them are on my reading list.  I constantly deleted or didn't bother with many of the blogs I screened because they so didn't know what was happening.

 

I think the blogging world really helped to inform me about what was happening out there.  I was looking for that information because from my own view I thought it looked bad and these blogs filled in details of what was happening and all kinds of information that you'd never get from a newspaper.

13 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On December 11, 2008 at 3:46 AM, jester112358 (29.01) wrote:

My two favorites which I picked up from your posts are Mish's and Naked Capitalism (probably my favorite).

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#2) On December 11, 2008 at 8:04 AM, saunafool (98.96) wrote:

dwot,

I agree about the blog world being helpful. Yet, I always wonder whether or not we just go looking for stuff that confirms what we already believe?

Those of us who have been bearish through the last few years have been proven right by the collapse. Yet, will we be right about the next move? That's always the challenge...

I mean, there are guys like Bill Miller who were right about the market for 15 years in a row, then he stunk it up so badly that he lost all of the gains he had above the S&P 500 over an almost 20 year period.

So, that's how life goes. We're right until we're wrong. I think the big test for the blogosphere will be knowing when it is time to turn the corner. Who will turn bullish at the right time?

Alternatively, who is really calling for the end of civilization (aside from Alstry)? And if they are right, will we still have computers and the internet to electronically congratulate them for calling a return to the stone age?

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#3) On December 11, 2008 at 10:50 AM, degaston (99.59) wrote:

Dwot writes: "these blogs filled in details of what was happening and all kinds of information that you'd never get from a newspaper".

Somebody needs to get a memo out to the newspapers that they need to start thinking of themselves as bloggers. Those newspapers that fail to fill us in on the details of what is really happening and filter out information are going to die.  

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#4) On December 11, 2008 at 10:50 AM, degaston (99.59) wrote:

Dwot writes: "these blogs filled in details of what was happening and all kinds of information that you'd never get from a newspaper".

Somebody needs to get a memo out to the newspapers that they need to start thinking of themselves as bloggers. Those newspapers that fail to fill us in on the details of what is really happening and filter out information are going to die.  

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#5) On December 11, 2008 at 11:58 AM, HansHauge (32.47) wrote:

Dwot, I remember seeing that list but now I can't seem to locate it. Can you repost it or post a link?

I think that is where I found Reggie Middleton's BoomBust Blog and Safe Haven.

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#6) On December 11, 2008 at 2:42 PM, Tastylunch (29.52) wrote:

ditto and via you it ended up informing me.

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#7) On December 11, 2008 at 2:52 PM, EScroogeJr (< 20) wrote:

dwot hasn't been proven right yet. She has certainly done the right thing so far, but congratulations should be postponed until we see how she times the re-entry point. If, for example, she keeps waiting forever for Dow 7000 and it fails to materialize, then her victory will be Phyrric.

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#8) On December 11, 2008 at 3:11 PM, HansHauge (32.47) wrote:

In fairness we should also note  that dwot has no picks currently beating the market.

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#9) On December 11, 2008 at 4:01 PM, dragofly (< 20) wrote:

May I second the request for a link to your favorite blogs?  I too have had trouble finding it.

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#10) On December 11, 2008 at 5:51 PM, HansHauge (32.47) wrote:

It's Canadian beer hour drago....we'll have to wait until the Red Green show is over to get a reply.

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#11) On December 11, 2008 at 6:05 PM, dwot (97.28) wrote:

Gee HansHauge, do you get it or not?  Why make a comment like that?  More then half my active picks would have lost you money.  I disagree with a "winning" criteria that makes you lose money.

saunafool, I use my mind.  If I can pick a bunch of holes and nonsense in what I'm reading, I reject it.  The amount of drivel out there that had nothing more then to say "the market always goes up over the long term" as justification was incredible.  Buy at a peak and with a 50% decline you have to make 100% to break even.  

There is no question that stocks I was in have become an utter disaster.  What is right and what is wrong?  I am pretty neutral right now, I haven't made a pick in ages.

 My shared blogs is on my blogger blog, Making Sense of My World.  Look at the side.

I just had a look and somehow I don't have Big Picture on there...

There is also my reading list.  I haven't starred as much as I used to, but when I read something that I thought worthwhile, I give it a star and it shows up on my "What I've Been Reading..."

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#12) On December 12, 2008 at 1:08 AM, HansHauge (32.47) wrote:

dwot - sorry that you took the comment in that way. I did not mean it to be an attack... just funning with you.

About your current picks i was just surprised. I remember when Ooji hit the #1 spot for a while and every single pick of his was loosing to the market, it was a bit of an eye opener. I guess it has to do with previous momentum and a partial recovery.

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#13) On December 22, 2008 at 8:13 PM, goldgal7 (< 20) wrote:

I find most bloggers just repeat the 'industry line' of it's always a good time to buy real estate.

I follow a San Diego real estate broker who called this bust correctly at the top in 2005.

For a hard hitting, no holds barred opinion of the San Diego California real estate market ( and real estate markets in general) take a look at the San Diego real estate market blog. The URL is:

http://www.brokerforyou.com/brokerforyou/

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