dwot (99.56)

Consumer Discretion...

August 05, 2008 – Comments (5)

Big Picture has a post and they say consumer discretion earnings are down more then financial earnings.

Earnings down 87% for quarter two...  It looks like GM and Ford have muddied the picture in terms of being able to see what it is like for all consumer discretion.  

Well, I still just watch. 

My main reason for watching is that there are simply too many wild cards out there right now.  For example, banks can and will be going under.  That is simply going to put some businesses that may have been seeing earnings decline into serious trouble when either they lose deposits, or a creditor they have loses deposits and can't pay.  These are the wild cards.  

Already there are stories of businesses that had their deposits in a bank for payroll and before payroll was paid out the bank was taken over.  

And then there are the people that work for the business that are affected.  So, the business loses money to pay workers, and now the workers don't get paid, and what happens to their bills?

I have repeated a few times is that I see what's happening here to have a huge effect on Peter's ability to pay Paul, which then affects Fred, who then has a problem paying Frank, and so on...

In the big picture, look at Chrystler not being able to refinance all of its debt.  How does that trickle through their business and how many are affected?  And how do those affected affect others?

If you can answer those questions, well, you have more insight then I do.

So I watch.