Yves has a piece about the slow down in consumer spending. I didn't realise that the US economy is 2/3rds consumer spending. Then next release on consumer spending is expected to show a 3% decline? That is huge. 2/3rds of 3 is a 2% contraction in the overall economy... In a single quarter?
This is projection, but this is one set of numbers I'm going to be watching for to how close/far this projection comes in.