shortside777 (< 20)

21 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On August 10, 2009 at 12:34 PM, shortside777 (< 20) wrote:

yep

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#2) On August 10, 2009 at 12:39 PM, chk999 (99.99) wrote:

If you back goodwill and intangibles out of the balance sheet, the company has about 200M more debts that assets. The last quarters earnings was about minus 9M.

They make consumables for the paper mill industry. This is not likely to grow much in the reasonable future. What makes this a buy?

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#3) On August 10, 2009 at 6:36 PM, finabuddy (98.97) wrote:

agree with chk. The debt load alone pokes a big enough hole in "great fundamentals". 6.5x net debt / ebitda; 9.5x net debt / (ebitda - capex); CC credit rating on negative outlook (downgraded last week). "absent an economic revival in the paper industry driving a revenue recovery, it would not be in compliance with financial covenants under its credit facility, and is currently in talks with lenders seeking an amendment." This company is a restructuring canidate, the debt owns this company. Why would you ever buy the equity here?

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#4) On August 10, 2009 at 6:41 PM, shortside777 (< 20) wrote:

Tisk tisk ok we will see in a few months who is right, and believe me if I'm right chk999 will hear about it all the time how he was told by a 13 year old

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#5) On August 10, 2009 at 6:47 PM, hendrixcr23 (31.32) wrote:

our youth today........

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#6) On August 10, 2009 at 7:06 PM, UltraContrarian (96.85) wrote:

You did say "correct me if I'm wrong".

I think XRM is probably going to survive but not thrive.  If a company has lots of debt and didn't rebounded strongly off this spring's lows, more than likely it has big problems.

XNYH.OB and OPAI.OB are two interesting Chinese companies in the paper & printing business (with high cash flow and low debt).  I would buy XNYH but it's not available through my broker right now.

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#7) On August 10, 2009 at 7:17 PM, plange01 (64.51) wrote:

xrm looks good on paper the problem is that trash companys like DTG that are worthless have gone up 2000-3000% in 6 months and good ones that make money are in the dumpster...look at (car) i bought it for .40 cents a share and sold it 8/10 for $10.50!!!..

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#8) On August 10, 2009 at 7:18 PM, shortside777 (< 20) wrote:

"correct me if I'm wrong" is a hook to get people's attention because it's human nature to enjoy correcting people who are wrong in a subject area you take great interest or pride in...I don't think I am wrong only time will tell though but I am interested in others opinions

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#9) On August 10, 2009 at 7:38 PM, mikecart1 (99.26) wrote:

LOL people think they can cut corners and rise to the top and be Godfather without putting any work in.

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#10) On February 21, 2010 at 3:19 PM, zzlangerhans (99.72) wrote:

You were wrong, and chk999 corrected you. Looks like you blew your allowance.

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#11) On February 21, 2010 at 3:35 PM, topsecret10 (< 20) wrote:

   Too much debt !!!!   Thumbs down......  TS

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#12) On July 24, 2010 at 7:39 PM, nprfreak (< 20) wrote:

It might be time to start paying attention to Xerium Technologies again. For those who don't know, they entered a pre-packaged bankruptcy on March 30 after one of their many domestic and international debt holders voted against a reorganization plan. The plan was confirmed by the court on May 12 and executed when the market closed May 25.

 Xerium is in a completely different situation than they were in Q1, the most recent 10Q. I would encourage value or growth investors to visit the IR website for research and to sign up for the PR email alerts to be notified regarding timing of the earnings release and conference call. (Note: Notice is sometimes short, may be released late in the day and can get buried on aggregators pretty quicky.) Some advanced research and a review of the early August earnings release and conference call might at least convince you to pull the 10Q and consider the prospects.

Disclosure: XRM is my largest holding.More foolish than Foolish perhaps to build such a large position in a company with so much debt. I came for the dividend (silly me) and stayed for the "new" CEO, Stephen Light who came on board in February 2008. Credit crisis and paper industry meltdown notwithstanding, I've been impressed. He's made the hard decisions and under his leadership the company has progressed throughout the turmoil. Debt service is now easily managable and the wind is at their back, even if it's only a breeze. Definitely one to watch.

 US company, international reach, emerging market growth.

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#13) On July 24, 2010 at 7:55 PM, ragedmaximus (< 20) wrote:

HEY! what do you fools think about YRCW it like siri went to 10cents now.34 and I think it's rocketing to a buck ! what you fools think! please answer!

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#14) On July 24, 2010 at 8:09 PM, goalie37 (96.36) wrote:

Hey shortside, take the negative comments from the right perspective.  You obviously did some homework on this one, and by asking for comments you were able to get the negative side of the argument as well.

As a 13 year old who is in the market, I think you are off to a great start.  And using the wisdom of the Fool community will only help.

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#15) On July 24, 2010 at 8:17 PM, goalie37 (96.36) wrote:

@ragedmaximus -

I took a very, very brief look a YRCW.  It's a penny stock that deserves to be a penny stock.  I'm not a technician, so I can't say if it will go to a dollar or not, but the company looks like a dog.  I'm hesitant to say that you should stay out of it for two reasons - 1) If it goes up, you will blame me for telling you to stay out.  2) If it goes to zero and you own it, there will be little consolation in saying "I told you so."

What I would suggest is that you look at your strategy and see if owning stocks like these make sense in the broader context of your portfolio.  If it does, then I certainly hope it does go to a buck.

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#16) On July 24, 2010 at 8:47 PM, Mstinterestinman (44.11) wrote:

Hey shortside at your age be a little pickv with what you buy I wish I had started at 13. Search for small or Micro caps with manageable debt levels and  return on equity above 10% ,Here are a couple I own I think you should check out. EBIX,GMCR,MCF,NFLX

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#17) On July 24, 2010 at 8:51 PM, Mstinterestinman (44.11) wrote:

P.S dont overlook dividends KO or RSG are companies you could probably hold forever.

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#18) On July 24, 2010 at 8:52 PM, ragedmaximus (< 20) wrote:

I normally dont invest in penny stocks otc cause most are pump and dumps,yrcw is a x-60 dollar stock that trades for pennies now. I think it has potential to get back to a dollar like siri but probably not much more. its chart looks alot like siri and joes that made moves off the bottom

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#19) On July 24, 2010 at 8:53 PM, Mstinterestinman (44.11) wrote:

P.P.S XRM does look like an interesting speculation play just dont hold it longer than 6 months and roll your profits if any into something more investment worthy.

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#20) On July 25, 2010 at 11:22 AM, nprfreak (< 20) wrote:

ozzfan: I appreciate your take on XRM and realize how it looks on the surface. I would argue that the stock is not as speculative as it appears. That's one reason I advised others to watch for and review earnings when they are released. At some point, I plan to write up my longer term case for Xerium, but the analysis to support that is still in progress.

Because my position is so large relative to my portfolio (and supplemented by 4-year warrants issued to holders of record on the effective date), I plan to sell roughly 25% of my shares in the short term (1-5 months) if the price is right. The GTC sell limit in already in place. I will not reduce the price but may reduce the share count and increase the ask price depending on what I see in Q2 earnings.

There are several factors that could lead to dramatic share price appreciation in the very short term, possibly immediately following the coming earnings release, though overhang from the balance sheet restructuring remains. Beyond the longer term potential that may cause a return of institutional investors, these include:

-An information lag created by reliance on Q1 reporting at all financial websites for debt level, share count and related ratios. For example, websites report either 2.5M (1:20 reverse split adjusted) or 51M (not split adjusted) shares outstanding while the actual current figure is about 15M. 

-An extremely limited supply of shares available for trading. Post restructuring, about 1.25M shares were held by other than the lenders, prior 50% owner ApaxPartners and employees/management of Xerium. (All or most lenders are prohibited from selling their shares now, but have an opportunity to mount an offering after late August under certain conditions.) With additional shares "off the market" at the Russell 3000 reconstitution, I estimate shares available for trading to number between 700 and 800K.

-An elevated level of short interest, more than 400k at last report.

I like the idea of many buyers chasing a very few shares. There will be other diluted shareholders ready to sell on the way up but demand could far exceed that small supply. Whether it happens with this quarterly report remains to be seen. I can wait if it doesn't.

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#21) On August 07, 2010 at 1:27 PM, nprfreak (< 20) wrote:

FYI: XRM earnings release is Wed 8/11 after the bell with the conference call the next morning at 9am EDT.

A correction to my previous comment regarding availability of shares. Further research reveals that only a subset of the lenders and ApaxPartners are prohibited from selling shares. Apparently some smaller lenders have been dumping shares on the market since the Plan of Restructuring became effective after the close on 5/25.

For the 7/15 settlement, short interest increased to approximately 430k shares. With further analysis, I believe this is roughly 5% of float.  This is based on SC-13D (active) filings for the parties and management holdings. The following text, taken from a document filed with the court last week, lays out the parties currently prohibited from selling shares. One additional lender, filing a SC-13G (passive) holds 8.6% of shares.

 "Pursuant to the Plan, the Company entered into a Registration Rights Agreement (the “Registration Rights Agreement”) on the Effective Date with Apax WW Nominees Ltd, Apax-Xerium Apia L.P., AS Investors, LLC, Carl Marks Strategic Investments, L.P., and Carl Marks Strategic Opportunities Fund, L.P. (the “RRA Parties”). Pursuant to the Registration Rights Agreement, the Company agreed that commencing on the 90th day after the Effective Date, any of the RRA Parties or group of RRA Parties may request registration under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, of all or any portion of the New Common Stock held by such RRA Party on Form S-1 or Form S-3, as applicable."

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