July 11, 2008
– Comments (12)
Good luck. The winds seem at his back.
Picking only reds
and than only greening ultra shorts and other shorts
hardly is worthy of the top spot.
A good recovery easily good take him down.
A good recovery is several years away. How else would you play this market...??? Trying to catching a falling financials knife?
IT doesnt take skill ultra shorting financials right now.
This game is about picking all stocks, some you feel they will do better than the market and others worse.
Not to brag, but most of my score is on positive picks that would have provided people with appreciation and profits.
Just wait and see how Spec would drop in a bull market instead of this cub market.
People are so scared about losing a penny now a days that they are so ready to pack it in on a slight dip and are so short in selling into rallies.
Yeah some earnings are going to come down, but come on, how much of a haircut is truly warranted given all the obstacles, in a year or two when many on the sidelines finally grow the B*lls to re enter the market they will look back and say dang I wish I could have mustered enough nerve to buy this stock when it was much cheaper.
By the time you realize the true recovery is here, most will miss out on the opportunity..
People usually buy high
and sell low.....
right now and in the many months coming
you will have the opportunity to buy low.
whos going to take advantage.
LordZ = cuckoo (making finger spinning motion around my ear)...
LordZ is forgetting the most basic tenet of investing - go with the trend. Swim against the tide and you wil get hurt.
Keep shorting financials BOBBY LMAO (or in your case don't make any predictions or investments).
eventually you will feel the squeeze as they are near zero.
The tide comes in and out bobby, but you seem like the kinda fool who would allow the rip tide to take you out to sea.
Bobby you have zero picks, so please STFU.... or make some picks soon.
Eventually SPEC will get passed.
I've only been here 6 months and I'm withing 2% even with the negative 1,500 new unfamiliar to caps scoring penalty i suffered by not understanding not to mention the untimely suspensions and inability to close out and make picks while my account was made inactive.
bobby don't be hating on crazy people :)
Specs been here for years, so he has a huge head start.
LordZ, last year a guy started a hedge fund and made 1000% by going short financials from January to November. Think he wasn't worth accollades either?
I vote yes for specbear to pass the dow on monday. :) And congrats to him. Now everyone go bug him to do a new blog post.
I thought the game was about accumulating points. The more points you have the further ahead. The better your accuracy, the better the score.
It seems like a lot of people are jealous of SpecBear's score and accuracy.
It's OK, many people were jealous of Michael Jordan, Wayne Gretsky, and others for scoring too much.
LordyZ, if you could just score more points, maybe things would look brighter.
It looks like Spec simply sees the field a lot clearer and plays the game a lot more effectively than anyone else on CAPS.
LordZ might be opinionated, but is not necessarily cuckoo. My investment club so far this year has earned 27% on our money, as opposed to an almost 9% lost in the S&P500. You can make money in this market, and you don't have to be purely short or ultra-short. (For the record, my club does not short stocks nor do we buy short or ultra-short funds. We buy long positions in stocks and hold them for months or years.) There are bargains out there, if you look carefully.
Now admittedly, you have to be careful which stream you swim in. The Domestic Financials Stream would probably beat you against the rocks no matter which section of it you swim in. However, there are a lot of streams to swim in, some domestic and some foreign. Not all of them are raging floods sweeping away all wealth and with their contained detris of destroyed companies poisoning all who try to swim in them. There are bargains out there, good horses to put your money on and to let run for months or years. Sure, some of them might be nags and not pan out to the promis that they showed, but others will be swift stallions that will carry you far.
In Benjamin Graham's "The Intelligent Investor", they talk about trying to "time the market" buy pulling out your money in bad times and putting it back in in good times. He said that in general this is a fools game and should be avoided. He said in general that you should invest money into the market when you have it to invest, always keeping a little on the side, (about 10% or less, 5% or less is probably better), for when a REALLY GOOD bargain comes along. As LordZ said, trying to time when to get back in means you are likely to miss out of the best gains, since by the time it looks safe to get back into the market, most stocks will have already had a large portion of their best gains. It should be remembered that about 90% of the markets gains come on about 10% or less of the days in the market. If you miss those 10% of the days, you will have forfeited 90% of your potential gains.
As to SpecBear's prowess, there will always be nags in the market to bet against. He might do well in a strong bull as he has done in the current bear. I don't know and really I don't care. More power to him. Just not my investing style. I have my "Yes Man" charm and I am very happy with it. I may not have 10,000 points, but my portfolio is full of stocks that people might have been able to buy and make a profit on. Some of them very good profits, (like FDG), and some losses, (like my closed NOVS.PK call).
So LordZ saying "buy now" does not make him crazy. And in the long run, he might make more money with his "crazy" attitude than those who are sitting on the sidelines waiting to wade back into the market. Only time will tell.
Good luck to both of you. May you both make money.
I mistyped the input data for performance. The 27% gain is from 1-1-2007 to 7-11-2008. My brokers page listing performance is down right now for some site updates, so I can't get updated data. As of July 2nd we were up 3.37%, so we still made money this year. Last I looked, we also made money since July 2nd, so the number should be more than 3.37% but less than the 27% stated. I regret the error.
I'll be long gone from the financials when they close in on zero. I tend to stay away from shorting stocks under $10. (Except LEH, I'll be riding those a-holes into BK)
Actually you have already admitted to being this type of fool. I actually think it makes more sense to not swim against the tide. FWIW, I actually think we're close to the bottom and I'll be either flat or entering into long positions pretty soon. I think everybody is watching the VIX to gap and collapse but I still think its a good indicator.
Don't have time for this game but I like Alstry's blog which is why I'm here. But if I must, S&P 1155 is short term bottom and I'll remain short WYNN, LEH and the indexes until 1155 or until the S&P breaks out of its channel that started in May.
Hate? never. I don't have energy or inclination for such a negative emotion. I'm more concerned about what Ben and Hank the Wank are going to do next to screw up America.
In retrospect, the cuckoo comment wasn't nice but investing is all about making money so staying flexible rather than dogmatic seems the way to go. Long or short doesn't matter to me just so long as the account is going in the right direction.
Although I must admit I'm enjoying seeing the greedy bastards who blew up this bubble finally get their due. Seeing the Wall Street execs in another style of pinstripes would be the icing on the cake.
In Benjamin Graham's "The Intelligent Investor", they talk about trying to "time the market" buy pulling out your money in bad times and putting it back in in good times. He said that in general this is a fools game and should be avoided.
So just how has your portfolio performed if you began investing in this fashion 10 years ago. Let me give you hint, it rhymes with "city" and starts with "sh".
TA works but if you're not into it or are a "random walker" then you should at least look at Denninger's very basic market timing indicator of being in an S&P index fund when the 20 week MA is above the 50week MA and going into cash when the 20 dips 1% below (to prevent whipsaws) the 50. Get long again when the 20 climbs 1% above the 50. This kills any buy and hold strategy by a wide margin.
Demon, my prediction is that his score will drop under what the DOW is by weeks end.
Earnings are coming out, and when some decent earnings calm many of the worry warts, you should see a brief albeit nice rally.
Additionally no one can ever predict when exactly one might see a nice 500 to 1,500 point rally.
Sooner or later it can't rain forever.