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IBDvalueinvestin (98.55)

Could this be just Another Sucker's Rally?



July 08, 2010 – Comments (16)

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16 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On July 08, 2010 at 11:56 AM, IBDvalueinvestin (98.55) wrote:

Appearing to be a suckers rally as markets go "RED" on the day right before "LUNCH"

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#2) On July 08, 2010 at 12:15 PM, MoneyWorksforMe (< 20) wrote:

 This article sums up most of it...

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#3) On July 08, 2010 at 12:28 PM, 1315623493 wrote:

Yes. The death cross does not lie. According to my Fibonacci Retracements and 50-day Moving Average, resistance is $101 and $103.50 respectively. If $101 is broken, then $103.50. It bounces off and moves lower in my opinion. I project a further 14% decline for the Dow Jones which would be 8619. I am adding on to all my long positions on the way down, in addition to maintaining delta negative option position to take advantage of downside movement. 

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#4) On July 08, 2010 at 12:46 PM, IBDvalueinvestin (98.55) wrote:

Well on the other hand the well off people are still getting wealther,  thus all the beaten down stocks that cater to the well off people  should rebound after falling off a cliff the last 3 months.

Earnings should be better than the worst case scenerio priced in the stock prices today:


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#5) On July 08, 2010 at 12:50 PM, Superdrol (41.56) wrote:

how much money did you lose this time ?

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#6) On July 08, 2010 at 12:58 PM, IBDvalueinvestin (98.55) wrote:

All three ANF, TIF, & GES

are down from $50+ prices 3 months ago to the $30's today. Any earnings that comes out without a nightmare scenerio should move the stock prices higher considering the beat down they have received the last 3 months.

The path to least resistance on some select stocks has now turned up.

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#7) On July 08, 2010 at 1:18 PM, Superdrol (41.56) wrote:

How much cash are you putting down ?

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#8) On July 08, 2010 at 1:33 PM, IBDvalueinvestin (98.55) wrote:

Superdrol, ever hear the term "Never show your hand"

But I will show you because of your insistance:

I am currently 90% CASH / Money Market and only 10% invested in equities. 

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#9) On July 08, 2010 at 1:36 PM, IBDvalueinvestin (98.55) wrote:

I actually want the market to crash back down to 6,500 on DJIA so I can invest the Cash/Money market portion into the market as well.

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#10) On July 08, 2010 at 1:41 PM, IBDvalueinvestin (98.55) wrote:

I am hoping and counting on a double dip to 6,500 on DJIA so I can execute a strategy called:

LOADING the Boat..

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#11) On July 08, 2010 at 2:07 PM, Griffin416 (99.97) wrote:

Quick question, did you "load the boat" at the bottom last time?

 If you think the market will crash, why did you pick a bunch of retailer to outperform the market today. Clearly if the market gets destroyed it will be an economic reason, which means retail will be crushed more than the S&P. You are 3/4 full on your caps pick, but 90% in cash, this doesn't make too much sense to me, clearly a stategy divergence. Why not red thumb materials and green thumb staples?

I happen to think dow 8,800-9,000 will be the bottom this time. This correction should only last through the quarter at worst, IMHO

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#12) On July 08, 2010 at 2:32 PM, IBDvalueinvestin (98.55) wrote:

Griffin416 , I did not load the boat last time because of a few members of the Fool that scared me into staying bearish a full month after the bear had ended.

Griffin I am picking stocks to outperform in the short-term right now because I believe we will get a not as bad as expected reaction on earnings that start next week.

Many stocks are down 2 to 3 times more then the S&P averages, after an earnings season rebound , I am expecting another round of heavy selling heading into Sept.-Oct.

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#13) On July 08, 2010 at 3:17 PM, 1315623493 wrote:

IBD, I think timing a bottom is futile. My take is you should be invested at least 25% in equities, and the rest in bonds, cash, commodities, and if you're experienced enough, index options to hedge against downside risk during a bear market, and magnify upside reward during a bull market. 

Even though downside risk is high at this point, I am not reducing any of my exposure to stocks. In fact, as my positions decline, I add to them. The losses are offset by gains in my index put options and call options on securities which move inversely to the S&P 500.  

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#14) On July 08, 2010 at 3:20 PM, Griffin416 (99.97) wrote:

Thank you for clarifying your case. Your view seems different that most of the stuff I've read. In my view, if the Dow does go below 8000 again there will be an even stronger case not to be in the market, same as before. For the record, I was in 130% at the march bottom, correctly manuvered the Feb correction (I blogged about it before), but got smacked down on this one.

Historically, the 2nd and 3rd quarter of the presidents 2nd year are the worst for stocks out of any 4 year term. Adding the death cross, I am moderately bearish for a few months. After that I am very bullish, see 2004's action. Well, that is what makes markets ;o)

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#15) On July 08, 2010 at 3:31 PM, Momentum22 (29.37) wrote:

I think your boat is setting sail...


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#16) On July 08, 2010 at 3:50 PM, IBDvalueinvestin (98.55) wrote:

Momentum22 the boat will hit rocks on low tide once the earnings season is nearly half over. Thats when the tide will go lower and the boat will come back to shore and stay there to pick up goods, aka new investment money.

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