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alstry (35.49)

CRASH!!!!!!

Recs

25

January 31, 2009 – Comments (28)

According to today's NYTimes, rents are falling fast in NYC.  Wages are falling even faster and layoffs accellerating around the nation.  CA running out of money.  January was the worst month in S&Ps history.  Rioting all over Europe.  Chinese workers becoming restless and migrating back to the farms because of lack of work.  Japan in the worst recession since WWll. 

This is the kind of news I was warning you, just about a year ago, was going to happen.  Some of you listened and others dismissed it as doom and gloom.  Being negative is not my nature, it is simply a reflection of the conditions.....just like a surgeon or an oncologist diagosing cancer.  It is not a fun diagnosis, but one that must be delt with seriously... or the patient will inevitably will die.

On CAPs, I still don't reveal my full understanding of the issues we face.  Most of you would not be able to handle the full dose.

My goal is simply to help those who read this blog avoid the inevitable pain that is coming.  Better yet, maybe you can help me.  Some honestly believe holding gold might be the solution.  Quite honestly, I don't know.....I wish I did, but things are so uncertain now....few really know what will be worth anything.  Logic deters me from gold but these are illogical times.  Every perspective deserves at least some attention.

What I do know is the above.  Jobs are being lost by the millions.  If my projections are correct, many of you will lose your jobs.  People who never thought they would be poor are now waiting in food lines.  Brand new housing developments resemble ghost towns.  Cities and States are contemplating currently how they will cut millions of additional jobs.

If you are prepared, handling the distress will be much easier.  Build up a substantial savings.  Buy some gold as a hedge if you are so inclined.  I am not a guns and bullets... end of the world... person.... so if you want to go down that road, find solutions some place else.

In addition, my suggestion is that you surround yourself with talented people.  The internet is a wonderful forum to do it in a virtual manner.  You can tell BS when you see it.....and if you can't, it derails after a relatively short period of time.

I can tell you this.....although I have never met the individual, based on my reading a number of his recent posts, I suggest you read the following blog as a good start......

http://market-ticker.denninger.net/

Mish's blog and CalculatedRisk also provide excellent information.  If you just read these three blogs, in addition to reading Motley Fool and other investment sites.....you are miles ahead compared to those who simply listen to their broker for advice.

I have little doubt that my ratings will approach 100 very soon.  Not because I am cocky...simply because I am confident about my understanding of the problems affecting the economy and how I am positioned in CAPs to deal with it.

I could be wrong.....actually I hope I am wrong.....but I strongly doubt it.

It is becoming clearer and clearer that we are about to crash.  What it takes to survive it no one really knows......but at least if you prepare......the chances for success are increased.

Alstrynomics all about winning, only winning, and nothing but winning.  Does Alstrynomics win everytime, not a chance......but if you win most of the time.....in this game, you end up way ahead.

Good luck with whatever choices you make.

28 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On February 01, 2009 at 3:15 AM, dinodelaurentis (58.11) wrote:

i say not crash.

truly alstry, I cannot handle the truth??!!

truly??!!

not crash.

not

quite

yet.

soon tho.

tempis fugits.

        dino

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#2) On February 01, 2009 at 3:43 AM, AndreylikesMTL (98.12) wrote:

Hello Alstry

I could not find the post, where I was asking you about the small war in Georgia. I do not know if you have replied.

Did it (the war) contribute to the whole crisis of the West? 

Another thought on the Crash, and a dollar.

I do not believe in some dooms day, or total collapse of dollar. If something like this should happen, it would be slow. After all, it is all panic, that’s all there is to it.

Andrey

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#3) On February 01, 2009 at 9:58 AM, oversea (< 20) wrote:

Dinodelaurentis, please don't use any latin if you don't bloody know it! Thanks

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#4) On February 01, 2009 at 10:06 AM, oversea (< 20) wrote:

Oh I had forgotten. Alstry you wrote about rioting all over Europe. Do you know the difference between a riot and a strike? As far as I know there is a strike in France and there was a strike in England. The only real riots we had in western Europe were last month in Greece, but they are connected to deeper problems in the Greek society and institutions and not to the present financial situation.

If you could quote any other riots in Europe...? So I'll more careful going to work tomorrow morning.

 

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#5) On February 01, 2009 at 10:24 AM, amassafortune (29.98) wrote:

Alstry, by golly, you are an optimist. Even while expecting 30% unemployment and unimaginable events which can't be fully revealed, you do not see a future in which you might have to personally protect anything or anyone. 

"I still don't reveal my full understanding of the issues we face.  Most of you would not be able to handle the full dose"

"I am not a guns and bullets... end of the world person"

You must believe that things will not get so bad that the state and local authorities would not be able to handle the situation. So the "full dose" of economic meltdown is not expected to spill over into the social realm? That could only happen if we have a "squatters on foodstamps" solution where people continue to live in their foreclosed dwellings and the government provides food until the economy recovers. Search "squatters" and "Ohio" for confirmation that the first part is in place already. Search "Katrina" and "Astrodome" to confirm that a governmental attempt to provide food and shelter on a mass scale may not work. 

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#6) On February 01, 2009 at 10:31 AM, Phoenix07 (29.74) wrote:

I'm timid to thank you for an excellent and thoughful post because of the magnitude of it but, I am beginning to agree.

I just added you as one of my favorites. The octuplet story is honestly mind-boggling and like you said, this is unfortunately probably more a representation of the "me-first" mentality than a freak outlier.

  

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#7) On February 01, 2009 at 1:29 PM, streetflame (30.98) wrote:

Alstry - Glancing at your portfolio it is actually a little weak when it comes to shorting banks and real estate.  If you are right I think you are leaving money on the table by not shorting things like ALX, HME, MAA, IRET, WABC, AF, MFG, etc.

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#8) On February 01, 2009 at 4:08 PM, VIS46 (28.90) wrote:

Al:

  I listened to you and liquidated half of my portfolio on Friday. begining to short some. I will keep my money in cash reserves and wait for your signal to buy.I suscribed to  MF Pro.It is the only service making money.I liked their covered call straregy.I am making money on the covered calls.I am up 1.5% on that porfolio.What do you think of covered call strategy.Again thanks very much for excellent posts..

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#9) On February 01, 2009 at 4:23 PM, jesusfreakinco (29.58) wrote:

Al,

Gold is not the ONLY strategy to protect yourself, it is just one.

Honestly, I think the safest bet is to have your money in foreign currency bonds or CDs.  The hard part is knowing which ones. There are several that will make it through this crisis.  The USD and perhaps the Euro may not.  The USD will be seriously devalued, the Euro may either fall apart altogether or become a part of the solution - it depends on how the EU works together or against each other - I see more of the later right now.

The yuan - who knows...  It seems likely that China will thrive in the future (comparatively, that is), but their 'free market' gov't is so new and the collapse of their export market will cause significant social disorder.  The result of that disorder is way too unpredictable to me.

The currencies that I believe will do well are those commodity oriented currencies with stable gov'ts - like CAD and AUD (and lesser extent NZD).  Those are where I have my kids college funds stored safely while I take some risk no gold stocks.

So, although many of us are gold bugs, we are ALL in unchartered territory.  All we can do is listen to those that have called this and see what they believe are the next best moves.

I see Rogers calling US Bonds the safest investments and others calling for a US default.  (Either way I don't like bonds...).

I'd love to see Sinchy, Al, DVOT, and some others put together a series of blogs soliciting strategies and putting forth some ideas on where best to hide.  Honestly, right now most of us are still trying to figure it out...

May God have mercy on us all.  We are going to need it.

JFC

 

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#10) On February 01, 2009 at 4:53 PM, Jimmy2008 (< 20) wrote:

jesusfreakinco;

The currencies that I believe will do well are those commodity oriented currencies with stable gov'ts - like CAD and AUD (and lesser extent NZD).  Those are where I have my kids college funds stored safely while I take some risk no gold stocks.

Where do you keep your CAD, AUD? With Everbank? In Canada, Australia? Some canadians complain that Bank of Canada does not have a sound monetary policy to keep CAD strong (low interest rate). It is just not as bad as in US.

I see Rogers calling US Bonds the safest investments and others calling for a US default.  (Either way I don't like bonds...).

Rogers has been bearish on USD for a few years now. Your statement is not accurate.

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#11) On February 01, 2009 at 5:01 PM, Jimmy2008 (< 20) wrote:

DVOT,

Do you think that Canadian banks are really sound? Some people believe that it will take a while before big defaults show up in Canadian banks.

I am Canadian living in US. I thought that we, as Canadians, have less political and economic problems than Americans. I am thinking to close all my trades in US and open a brokerage account in Canada. Good idea?

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#12) On February 01, 2009 at 10:39 PM, jesusfreakinco (29.58) wrote:

Jimmy,

Yes, Everbank.  They seems like a sound institituion.  With them being private, one cannot be 100% certain.  However, that where I am placing my chips for now.  I havealso moved some brokerage accounts I manage to EverTrade over TD Ameritrade.  

Maybe I am mixing Rogers with someone else - perhaps Bill Gross.  I forget.  Either way some are calling for US bonds being the safest and others saying 100% get OUT of the dollar.

I am trying to stay diverse - some in foreign currency CDs and some in US exchange gold mining shares. I am also playing select HBs and banks on the short side - waiting for a BK or two.  If I had to guess, I'd said Obama will throw the banks under the bus, at least make their lives a lot more difficult if he does bail them out.  I don't see shareholders coming out of this with much if anyone.  The exception may be GS, but CDS default could wipe them out as well.

Is this the right balance?   Time will tell.  Any thoughts?

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#13) On February 02, 2009 at 5:34 AM, Jimmy2008 (< 20) wrote:

Thanks, jesusfreakinco!

I sold my TIP and have TBT. I don't think worthwhile to be long US treasury (even TIP) for intermediate term. Any gain in US treasury is likely to be negatively impacted by USD depreciation.

I have quite some junior miner stocks (bought 3 weeks ago). They gained a lot and I am ready to sell them ( afraid of their survivability). I am buying oil, PM and other hard assets. A caution: avoid gold miners that are based in USA or have major operations in US. I am afraid of US nationalization of them.

English is not my mother language. Sometimes I have difficult expressing myself.

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#14) On February 02, 2009 at 11:28 AM, jesusfreakinco (29.58) wrote:

Jimmy,

I'd hold a core position of jr miners as they stand the most to gain in the days/weeks ahead.  My two cents.

I am not yet concerned about nationalization in the US for miners.  Banks - yes a possibility, but doubtful

miners - I highly doubt it.

Your english is fine :)

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#15) On February 02, 2009 at 12:23 PM, Jimmy2008 (< 20) wrote:

I mean, nationalization of gold miners by US. Britain did it a while ago.

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#16) On February 02, 2009 at 12:33 PM, alstry (35.49) wrote:

Guys,

You have still not evolved into Alstrynonic Black Swan thinkers........you should be contemplating the statistical liklihood of nationalization of retirement accounts.

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#17) On February 02, 2009 at 1:20 PM, Jimmy2008 (< 20) wrote:

I talked about something similar to nationalization of IRAs and 401(k)s.

http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/ViewPost.aspx?bpid=138853&t=01002636329680350268

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#18) On February 02, 2009 at 1:45 PM, WillberS (< 20) wrote:

Gut instinct . Says you have a 46% chance of being correct.

Diversity still rules, own a bit of land, a little bit of gold and silver, energy, medical, and a mix of divedend paying stocks and oh yeh a nice 22 rifle to shoot rabbits etc. for food should we wind up on the land.............

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#19) On February 02, 2009 at 1:52 PM, jesusfreakinco (29.58) wrote:

I'd see Obama nationalizing XOM and others before I see them nationalizing gold miners, but who knows...  you may be right.  Those that are based on the US would be at most risk.  I am guessing this is why most are based in CAD.  Not sure.

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#20) On February 02, 2009 at 2:37 PM, zygnoda (27.20) wrote:

Black Swan is the most interesting poster on mish's site.

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