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Momentum21 (74.51)

Current M21 RL Positions

Recs

12

November 06, 2010 – Comments (67) | RELATED TICKERS: ATPAQ , CSR.DL2 , RJET

Disclosure: This is a "discretionary" fund of sorts. My 401k is in mutual funds (70% equities) and I also have cash, various bond funds and a precious metals/mining fund with many months of emergency funds in case my timeline needs to be extended.   

ATPG 9.41% CSR 7.73% RJET 6.50% T 5.52% MSFT 5.07% NYT 5.05% STD 4.51% GLCH 3.38% IKAN 3.17% MWA 3.15% S 3.01% AZN 2.84% GXDX 2.75% HEAT 2.60% EXAS 2.46% FEED 2.39% ADBE 2.20% EMC 2.03% USB 1.97% ANDS 1.95% GIGM 1.92% ABT 1.92% AIB 1.88% ALXA 1.84% ARNA 1.75% GNK 1.62% NBG 1.61% IDRA 1.56% DJSP 1.52% TNCC 1.47% TSYS 1.44% KV-A 1.31% AOI 1.27% CRME 0.91% CFW 0.30%

As you can see I prefer the outcasts and try to pick them up when they are making the most number of people sick. My hope is that the winners will overshadow the few that might not make it through the battle.

On occasion I try to pick out an ETF hedge to the short side but timing the market in that fashion has not worked out well for me.

This post was designed to help put my speculative moves in perspective. For someone who is not a "professionaI" I own more stocks than I should and trade more than I should but I just can't help myself. It will probably take another couple of years to determine whether I was better off buying an index fund...so far the past year or so has been enjoyable even though it can be extremely gut wrenching.

 

67 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On November 06, 2010 at 8:48 PM, dragonLZ (99.30) wrote:

Good luck, M21.

p.s.

It looks like MWA and GLCH are finally moving in the right direction...

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#2) On November 06, 2010 at 9:13 PM, ikkyu2 (99.16) wrote:

I prefer the outcasts and try to pick them up when they are making the most number of people sick.

Well, you've certainly achieved that.  Not saying you won't make money on them, but I'm feeling that MSFT and NYT are in possession of business models that are starting to show some fatal flaws. 

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#3) On November 06, 2010 at 10:12 PM, Momentum21 (74.51) wrote:

#1 - MWA and GLCH have been on a great run lately and I am still in the red on both...I like both for the long -term still though. thanks man...

#2 -NYT and MSFT might be my safest 2 bets in the bunch!

I own a nice chunk of MSFT at 24.77 and might add more from my cash savings...several tickers I own now might not be around in a couple of years but MSFT and NYT are not among those candidates.   

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#4) On November 07, 2010 at 11:01 AM, Momentum21 (74.51) wrote:

One of the reasons I have expanded the number of holdings is the volatility within the biotech picks. Some might say I don't have enough of them given the nature of those picks. 

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#5) On November 07, 2010 at 4:02 PM, TMFBabo (100.00) wrote:

Hey, we have some common holdings.

TSYS: I think you bought in when I did around the low $3 area, so you weren't swept in by the mania following the huge Marine Corps contract (which I don't think will produce a spike in earnings - it'll be more smooth and take a while to happen). 

I hold a pretty massive position and it's been my #1 holding since August.  I'm expecting moderate earnings for Q4 2010 of $0.07 to $0.10.  I'm hoping the rapidly growing backlog will translate to some better earnings reports in Q1 2011 and Q2 2011. 

I like seeing multi-year contracts, several more of which were announced on the Q3 earnings call.   They often provide opportunities to sell systems and then increase their maintenance and service contracts, which support the idea of recurring revenue streams.  

They could see higher earnings now if they didn't ramp up R&D since they acquired the 4 new businesses last year, but I like that they're spending extra to expand their offerings and integrate the new businesses.  I think their expanded set of offerings seems to be winning them new contract awards.

For the orders not meant to be filled under multi-year contracts, I think the timeframe is around 6-9 months.  Backlog started looking very nice as of Q2 2010 and awesome as of Q3 2010, so you can see why I'm waiting on Q2 2011 earnings.  I think it should be in the $6 to $7 range right now, but I'm hoping big earnings reports in the future will justify an even higher level.  That may or may not happen by Q2 2011, but I think they'll continue to grow sales at 15% or higher in 2011 and 2012.  How much of that translates into net income is the big question.

GNK: What more is there to say from my end? I think it's mispriced.  I'm bearish on shippers, but I think GNK should be higher.  The only realistic catalyst I see is the dividend reinstatement, which will result from a combination of higher ship values (probably a ratio with debt in it) and something to do with earnings or cash flows (multiple of EBITDA or CFO? Beats me).  I wish I knew the exact terms of the loan covenant.

I'd allow at least 2 years to allow for the dividend to hopefully get reinstated and for the ship supply situation to be less muddy.  I continue to believe that shippers with old fleets will eventually accelerate scrapping as more supply comes online and they're unable to deploy their old ships.  This is one of my top 4 holdings.

NBG: I bought in at $2.18 recently and was hoping to buy into AIB, IRE, and STD as well.  I've decided to avoid AIB and IRE because of the massive dilution - NBG looks much more attractive.  STD seems like an amazing bank, but I'm sitting on the sidelines unless it falls further.

DJSP: I sold my position at a huge loss and bought DJSPW with the proceeds.  The warrants expire in August 2012, which is almost how long I was going to let this play out anyway.  The boom or bust hypothesis still stands, but it looks grim.   Good thing I own much less DJSPW than almost anything else I own. 

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#6) On November 07, 2010 at 5:09 PM, Momentum21 (74.51) wrote:

 bullishbabo (100.00) - thanks for checking in...it is always comforting to share some picks with you. In fact in was your GNK post that made me pull the trigger on that one. So far so good, but this is one that I have patience on either way. TSYS was speculative since I didn't do much research at all and was emboldened by some recent bottom feeding... : ) Ironically I bought at 3.41 and sold half my position at like 3.80 because I lacked conviction...so I consider that whole chain of events a bit of a failure even though I am sitting on a 50%+ gain.

DJSP might be the real failure. I am still sitting on it and feeling trapped with a 59% loss. If they pull the plug it is going to look pretty darn obvious that I am a loser. : )

What about all of those horrific  tickers that I shorted on CAPS that exploded to be 3 baggers?!? I haven't even gotten a bounce out of this thing...things aren't supposed to go up or down in a straight line...this one is proving to be the exception to the rule.

Adding to STD is tempting...the only problem is that the US Banks are probably a better bet at these levels. USB and/or PNC might offer similar reward with less risk. AIB and NBG are going to take some time...check out Jakila's pitch on TNCC (real small mkt cap though)...

thanks for sharing!  

 

   

 

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#7) On November 07, 2010 at 5:55 PM, Momentum21 (74.51) wrote:

GIGM 1.92% - actually 1.31%

I also forgot to mention SAYCY which would be around 1.70%. I need to update that on Yahoo Finance since its de-listing. 

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#8) On November 07, 2010 at 7:16 PM, TMFBabo (100.00) wrote:

In the context of your portfolio, I'm not sure you played TSYS incorrectly.  It was a bottom-grabbing pick.  You hold a basket of those.  It was only incorrectly played if you normally hold those things longer than you held half of TSYS.  I remember you sold half of it to buy MSFT and some other large cap.  Now that I think of it, I guess you had to sell to raise cash.  

On my end, I researched the mess out of that pick and played it correctly by refusing to sell it until it reaches where I think it should go.  

I'm not really that surprised by DJSP.  I've had plenty of big losers before and I figured the chances of it tanking were great.  It's one thing to say I expect it could happen and another to watch it happen, of course.  

It sucks that I really only have time for 5-10 heavily researched picks, max.  The rest of my picks are picked mechanically or after only a small amount of due diligence.  I do put the majority of my money into my highly researched picks, though.  I have well over 60% of my money in my top 5 picks.  

Jakila's been one of my favorite 2 or 3 CAPS members since the day I joined.  I remember telling him one time that his pitches were the kinds I would like to do if I spent more time on mine.  That still holds true today.  

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#9) On November 08, 2010 at 12:34 AM, MyunderratedLife (90.01) wrote:

hmm,

I am currently:

EMC 25.48%, ATPG 21.87%, ATVI 12.34%, GS 8.78%, WFC 8.23%, SVNT 5.22%, SGY 5.19%, IDRA 4.24%, AIB 3.45% (newest position, Cost Avg: $.082), and a little more than 4% cash.

I think goldman will get dumped this coming week to free up some capital...  May divest a little ATPG depending on the reaction to the earnings... 

 

M21, I was wondering whether the composite value of your portfolio <100k USD?  I would like much "less" exposure to AIB but the trading costs made taking a smaller prohibitive...  (ideally I would have like 1-2% exposure).

In my case though, having less capital may be a boon, considering it forces a measure of patience from me... 

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#10) On November 08, 2010 at 11:35 AM, Momentum21 (74.51) wrote:

M21, I was wondering whether the composite value of your portfolio <100k USD?

MyunderratedLife (33.48) - it is greater than 100k. Watching the market daily makes it difficult to manage one's portfolio. The urge to buy and sell might make it more likely that we hold our losers and sell our winners prematurely...this is something I am trying to keep front of mind.  

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#11) On November 08, 2010 at 12:26 PM, Momentum21 (74.51) wrote:

I would like much "less" exposure to AIB but the trading costs made taking a smaller prohibitive...  (ideally I would have like 1-2% exposure).

Maybe you spoke too soon... 

Anyone using a stop loss on AIB today is going to be annoyed... : ) 

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#12) On November 08, 2010 at 11:28 PM, MyunderratedLife (90.01) wrote:

I meant to do that :)

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#13) On November 08, 2010 at 11:44 PM, Momentum21 (74.51) wrote:

Sold all of AOI and CFW

added to TSYS@ $5.00

added to RJET@7.76

sold some shares of CSR 

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#14) On November 11, 2010 at 10:25 AM, Momentum21 (74.51) wrote:

added to EMC @ 21.60

added to USB @ 25.10

VICL @ $1.94 --- bottom's up!  

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#15) On November 11, 2010 at 10:32 PM, Momentum21 (74.51) wrote:

The pruning is on hold. 

CIDM @ 1.68 - small position on an "idea" from a friend of a trusted friend. Not sure yet...but in. : )    

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#16) On November 11, 2010 at 10:47 PM, Momentum21 (74.51) wrote:

ATPG 9.49% RJET 7.34% CSR 6.09% T 5.22% MSFT 4.83% NYT 4.58% STD 4.17% GLCH 3.33% MWA 2.97% S 2.90% IKAN 2.88% EMC 2.77% USB 2.74% AZN 2.67% GXDX 2.55% HEAT 2.47% TSYS 2.38% EXAS 2.23% ADBE 2.17% AIB 2.04% FEED 1.90% ANDS 1.84% ABT 1.80% ALXA 1.76% VICL 1.75% SAYCY.PK 1.68% DJSP 1.63% ARNA 1.61% GNK 1.56% IDRA 1.53% NBG 1.48% TNCC 1.42% KV-A 1.29% GIGM 1.22% CIDM 0.87% CRME 0.84%

There are a few tickers in the cross-hairs...I promise myself that the next transaction is a sell order.  

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#17) On November 12, 2010 at 10:16 AM, Momentum21 (74.51) wrote:

Sold some CSR @ 5.64 and RJET @ 8.15

added DVOX @ 4.55 

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#18) On November 12, 2010 at 11:26 AM, Momentum21 (74.51) wrote:

Sold all of Sprint @ 4.01

Sold all of FEED @ 2.51 

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#19) On November 12, 2010 at 1:10 PM, Momentum21 (74.51) wrote:

Sold a big chunk of ATPG @ 15.08

Bought some short-term SCO @ 11.82 

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#20) On November 16, 2010 at 3:54 PM, Momentum21 (74.51) wrote:

added KVA at 1.97 and ZSL @ 15.29

sold some MWA 

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#21) On November 16, 2010 at 4:00 PM, Momentum21 (74.51) wrote:

sold that KVA at 2.08 and added some CIDM @1.58

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#22) On November 16, 2010 at 4:00 PM, Momentum21 (74.51) wrote:

sold that KVA at 2.08 and added some CIDM @1.58

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#23) On November 17, 2010 at 3:12 PM, Momentum21 (74.51) wrote:

More ARNA @ $1.30 

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#24) On November 17, 2010 at 3:40 PM, Momentum21 (74.51) wrote:

Sold 1/3 of the SCO position at 13.12

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#25) On November 18, 2010 at 4:04 PM, Momentum21 (74.51) wrote:

Sold all the SCO @ 12.58, all the ZSL @$13.50 (small net gain on those two hedges but would have been better off laying off the ZSL :) )

added ALNY @ 10.19

Going to let the AIB ride...famous last words. 

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#26) On November 21, 2010 at 5:11 PM, Momentum21 (74.51) wrote:

RJET 6.54% ATPG 5.90% CSR 5.67% T 5.66% MSFT 5.14% STD 4.68% GLCH 3.81% ARNA 3.34% NYT 3.27% IKAN 3.09% EMC 3.05% USB 2.98% AIB 2.95% AZN 2.93% KV-A 2.88% GXDX 2.77% EXAS 2.41% ADBE 2.31% TSYS 2.30% HEAT 2.07% VICL 2.06% ALNY 1.98% ANDS 1.95% ALXA 1.92% ABT 1.90% CIDM 1.82% MWA 1.75% DVOX 1.63% TNCC 1.61% IDRA 1.61% NBG 1.60% GNK 1.55% SAYCY.PK 1.48% GIGM 1.20% CRME 1.15% DJSP 1.13%  

Reflects the rebalance of ATPG and CSR. The recent buys did necessarily make me "safer" just less reliant on those two...

I would prefer that one of the biotechs popped before one zero's out.

It appeared that DJSP was going there this week but the zombie bounced in the .30's...I am riding this dog to zero if need be... 

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#27) On November 22, 2010 at 10:10 AM, Momentum21 (74.51) wrote:

added some NBG at 1.88

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#28) On November 23, 2010 at 12:48 PM, Momentum21 (74.51) wrote:

IRE @ 1.70 (might not be holding this for long)

NEXS @ 2.06 (LED baby)

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#29) On November 29, 2010 at 4:02 PM, Momentum21 (74.51) wrote:

Sold 1/3 of IRE at 1.84

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#30) On November 30, 2010 at 10:04 AM, Momentum21 (74.51) wrote:

doubled HEAT position at $4.72

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#31) On November 30, 2010 at 2:33 PM, Momentum21 (74.51) wrote:

added CSCO @ 19.22

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#32) On December 01, 2010 at 4:04 PM, Momentum21 (74.51) wrote:

Sold 1/3 of GLCH @ $2.61

Sold 1/3 of GXDX @ 16.92  

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#33) On December 08, 2010 at 3:33 PM, Momentum21 (74.51) wrote:

Sold ALL of my CRME at 6.27 (bought at 4.76)

Sold 1/3 of ALXA @ 1.17

Sold  1/4 of ARNA @ 1.57

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#34) On December 08, 2010 at 3:39 PM, portefeuille (99.60) wrote:

#31,32,33 well done.

#30 not so sure, hehe ...

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#35) On December 08, 2010 at 3:51 PM, portefeuille (99.60) wrote:

NEXS @ 2.06 (LED baby)

My favourite LED baby Aixtron (see this post and this one) is doing alright lately ...

Aixtron (AIXA:GY, AIXG) in Xetra trading.



enlarge

 



enlarge

 

good old German exporters ...

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#36) On December 08, 2010 at 3:56 PM, portefeuille (99.60) wrote:

#35 The April 2010 high was at around 29.10 EUR, today's high was at around 28.86 EUR.

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#37) On December 08, 2010 at 4:00 PM, Momentum21 (74.51) wrote:

Yes, Chinese equities aren't helping my cause... : )

I have some Irish Banking exposure that is helping though. Still pretty decent positions in IRE and AIB. Wish I had some OREX like you though...  

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#38) On December 08, 2010 at 4:10 PM, Momentum21 (74.51) wrote:

Sold 25% of AIB @ 1.34

#35 - I saw your pitches on AIXG. I think I felt I missed the boat on that one perhaps. Just like I did with DLAKY and hundreds of other German equities... : ) 

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#39) On December 09, 2010 at 4:06 PM, Momentum21 (74.51) wrote:

Sold 33% of the IRE position at 3.02. 

I wanted to let it all run but the current position is more reasonable know anyhow.  : )

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#40) On December 13, 2010 at 10:27 PM, Momentum21 (74.51) wrote:

An update:

ATPG 6.02% RJET 5.94% T 5.49% MSFT 5.20% CSR 4.65% HEAT 4.26% STD 4.26% IKAN 3.58% NYT 3.57% EMC 3.01% USB 3.00% NBG 2.83% AZN 2.79% KV-A 2.73% ARNA 2.68% GLCH 2.61% CSCO 2.24% IRE 2.15% ADBE 2.12% EXAS 2.08% TSYS 2.06% AIB 1.95% MWA 1.91% NEXS 1.91% ALNY 1.81% ABT 1.81% VICL 1.78% CIDM 1.72% TNCC 1.55% ANDS 1.50% DVOX 1.47% GNK 1.44% ALXA 1.43% IDRA 1.37% GXDX 1.37% SAYCY.PK 1.27% GIGM 1.22% DJSP 1.21%

Best Performer (of positions currently held): IRE@65%

Worst Performer: DJSP@(67%) 

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#41) On December 14, 2010 at 9:52 AM, Momentum21 (74.51) wrote:

Sold all of GXDX @ 21.03

Bought DSCO @ .177 (a 1.4% position) 

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#42) On December 15, 2010 at 12:47 PM, Momentum21 (74.51) wrote:

Bought MAXY @ $4.15  - not much time evaluating this pricepoint but obviously folks headed to the exits after the distribution(s) were made on CDXS.

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#43) On December 20, 2010 at 10:29 AM, Momentum21 (74.51) wrote:

Sold all of AIB @ $1.16 - I will run with the IRE at this point... : )

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#44) On December 20, 2010 at 3:49 PM, Momentum21 (74.51) wrote:

Sold about 20% of ARNA @ 2.30

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#45) On December 20, 2010 at 3:49 PM, Momentum21 (74.51) wrote:

Sold about 20% of ARNA @ 2.30

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#46) On December 20, 2010 at 3:52 PM, Momentum21 (74.51) wrote:

#45 - that was a double post...only one sale..the rest is running! 

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#47) On December 20, 2010 at 3:57 PM, Momentum21 (74.51) wrote:

Sold 25% of HEAT (1/2 of #30 addition) @ 5.63

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#48) On December 21, 2010 at 4:01 PM, Momentum21 (74.51) wrote:

Sold 20% of ATPG @ 15.59

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#49) On December 22, 2010 at 10:21 AM, Momentum21 (74.51) wrote:

sold 40% of ARNA (current holding) @ 1.88

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#50) On December 22, 2010 at 10:21 AM, Momentum21 (74.51) wrote:

sold 40% of ARNA (current holding) @ 1.88

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#51) On December 22, 2010 at 10:21 AM, Momentum21 (74.51) wrote:

sold 40% of ARNA (current holding) @ 1.88

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#52) On December 22, 2010 at 10:22 AM, Momentum21 (74.51) wrote:

only one ARNA trade (multi posted again)

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#53) On December 27, 2010 at 11:18 AM, Momentum21 (74.51) wrote:

Sold 100% of GIGM @ 1.44

Sold 33% of KV-A @ 2.66

In a holding pattern on the DSCO... : ) 

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#54) On December 27, 2010 at 12:51 PM, portefeuille (99.60) wrote:

Mr. (or Miss) Momentum21.

Just "knock" the positions that "get too large" down to a reasonable size every now and then. And almost never sell the entire position. Following these rules helps keep the peace of mind.

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#55) On December 27, 2010 at 1:24 PM, Momentum21 (74.51) wrote:

#54 - yes, I have definitely been better about that over the past months. Perhaps I am over-thinking it...just trying to optimize the risk/reward and minimize the "trading." I appreciate the advice Porte...

- Sold 30% of EXAS position @ $ 6.52 

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#56) On December 27, 2010 at 1:40 PM, Momentum21 (74.51) wrote:

- Sold 25% of DSCO @ .2950

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#57) On December 27, 2010 at 2:01 PM, Momentum21 (74.51) wrote:

- started a position in HRB @ 11.80 (I dare you to find something less attractive to buy today) : )

dividend, tons of selling right up through today's news, high call volume, probably some heavy tax loss selling to boot...

Worth a spot for odds of at least a modest recovery. 

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#58) On December 27, 2010 at 3:59 PM, Momentum22 (29.53) wrote:

Sold another 25% of original position of DSCO @ .339

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#59) On December 28, 2010 at 4:08 PM, Momentum21 (74.51) wrote:

Sold 25% of ANDS @ 1.45 (continuing the rebalance of the biotech piece although this trade was probably not necessary).

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#60) On December 29, 2010 at 3:40 PM, Momentum21 (74.51) wrote:

doubled back into DSCOD @ 3.77

 

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#61) On December 30, 2010 at 12:20 PM, Momentum21 (74.51) wrote:

doubled my ABT position @ 47.47

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#62) On December 30, 2010 at 12:42 PM, Momentum21 (74.51) wrote:

sold all of CIDM @ 1.57 (cost was 1.61, just part of the ticker clean up) re-allocating my risk : )

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#63) On December 30, 2010 at 4:04 PM, Momentum21 (74.51) wrote:

- sold 40% of CSR @ 5.20

- sold 45% of IKAN @1.36

- added a little spot of ZSL for the New Year  

 

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#64) On December 31, 2010 at 12:05 PM, Momentum21 (74.51) wrote:

doubled GLCH position @ 2.35 

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#65) On December 31, 2010 at 1:24 PM, Momentum21 (74.51) wrote:

starting a small position in BGP @ .9036 

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#66) On January 02, 2011 at 11:34 PM, Momentum21 (74.51) wrote:

T 5.88% RJET 5.78% MSFT 5.25% ATPG 5.03% ABT 4.54% GLCH 4.45% STD 4.10% NYT 3.68% USB 3.05% EMC 3.01% CSR 3.01% HEAT 2.98% AZN 2.66% NBG 2.53% ADBE 2.31% CSCO 2.28% HRB 2.24% TSYS 2.19% MWA 2.02% IKAN 2.02% IRE 1.99% DVOX 1.93% NEXS 1.93% KV-A 1.92% VICL 1.90% ALNY 1.85% ZSL 1.85% TNCC 1.83% DSCOD 1.71% ALXA 1.64% IDRA 1.63% ANDS 1.60% EXAS 1.57% MAXY 1.48% DJSP 1.35% GNK 1.35% SAYCY.PK 1.32% ARNA 1.29% BGP 0.85%

* 2010 Rate of Return: 26.4% (not a true performance due to an unspecified cash account/I moved quite a bit into the "fund" throughout the year and loaded up in May)

** In 2011 I will try to keep track of the cash account and hopefully I will also limit my positions to the current max of 39... : )

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#67) On January 03, 2011 at 6:22 PM, Momentum21 (74.51) wrote:

moved to a new post: see here

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