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Momentum21 (95.07)

Current M21 RL Positions: April

Recs

8

April 12, 2011 – Comments (26) | RELATED TICKERS: SAN , ATPAQ , DSCO

CSCO 6.50% STD 5.85% ATPG 5.10% T 5.04% DSCO 4.24% MSFT 4.00% ABT 3.98% NEXS 2.80% USB 2.46% GNK 2.38% AZN 2.33% LOCM 2.29% MWA 2.24% NBG 2.21% RJET 2.18% NYT 2.16% GLCH 2.04% CEDC 1.99% VICL 1.98% DHI 1.81% DCTH 1.79% CYTK 1.78% REVU 1.77% MDC 1.68% IDRA 1.64% SVNT 1.63% TSYS 1.62% YONG 1.57% EXAS 1.53% ALIM 1.49% MNTA 1.44% SNSS 1.42% XNPT 1.40% TSON 1.39% SAYCY.PK 1.27% ARNA 1.23% SPEX 1.22% EMC 1.20% ALNY 1.19% RPC 1.15% (just doubled position today) ANDS 1.08% ABAT 1.00% AEN 0.85% MAXY 0.81% RXII 0.80% MRNA 0.75% IKAN 0.73%  

As of 3/31/11 

Trailing 1 year return on account: 15.2%

YTD return: roughly -3.5%

Best return of a current holding: VICL (86% as of today)

Worst return of a current holding: MRNA & IKAN (-44% as of today)

Special "getting back to even stock": YONG  : ) 

26 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On April 12, 2011 at 2:53 PM, rofgile (99.31) wrote:

That's quite a speculative portfolio!

 I like STD, though I am wondering if Portugal and Greece are going to default.  The history of these countries show defaults (as well as Spain) is quite common.   (Spain was in default 23.7% of the time between 1800-2008, Portugal was in default 10.6% of the time, and Greece .. a whopping 50.6% of the years was in a state of on-going default!). [Reinhart and Rogoff This Time is Different, page 99]

 -Rof 

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#2) On April 12, 2011 at 3:54 PM, Momentum21 (95.07) wrote:

rofgile - one can liken it to the ideal "securitized loan" if there is such a thing...put enough "bad" together to make it "good."  : )

I like STD since they do have some diversification out of the region. And while the growth story in Spain will be suspect at best for years to come I think they will thrive as one of the few big banking players in the region. Add the dividend, opportunistic acquisitions, and history as a relatively well run company and you have a nice story within a troubled landscape. 

 

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#3) On April 12, 2011 at 5:12 PM, MegaEurope (21.49) wrote:

M21, have you checked out Banco Santander Brasil (BSBR)?  I would rather own that than STD, given that they're less leveraged, have more growth ahead than the European operations, and trade at a modest premium compared to STD.

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#4) On April 12, 2011 at 5:39 PM, Momentum21 (95.07) wrote:

MegaEurope - STD is "the Grupo"...25% of the business is BSBR (subsidiary).

a good portion of STD's business is in South America: Chile, Brazil...and North America: Mexico & USA

best of both worlds baby!

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#5) On April 12, 2011 at 5:48 PM, MegaEurope (21.49) wrote:

Yes I know that.  I just think BSBR is slightly superior.

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#6) On April 12, 2011 at 6:11 PM, Momentum21 (95.07) wrote:

I don't disagree, but I guess at the time I bought the diversification and dividend was more attractive. They are both CAPS picks of mine and if you were looking to buy as of today the numbers and forecasts seem to favor it...check out the YTD charts though...thanks for stopping by...

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#7) On April 14, 2011 at 2:43 PM, Momentum21 (95.07) wrote:

bought some AFOP @ 9.39 (late yesterday)

IGC @ .59 (today)

 

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#8) On April 14, 2011 at 3:13 PM, Momentum21 (95.07) wrote:

doubled MRNA @ .55 (yes, certainly seems like throwing good money after bad...today is that type of day.) 

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#9) On April 15, 2011 at 10:18 AM, Momentum21 (95.07) wrote:

I think Feuerstein is targeting my portfolio! First DCTH and now AEN... : )

doubled up on AEN @ 1.41

http://www.adeonapharma.com/AANposter.pdf 

http://www.thestreet.com/story/11083931/1/adeona-zinc-tab-fails-to-aid-alzheimers-patients.html 

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#10) On April 15, 2011 at 1:17 PM, mhy729 (33.16) wrote:

Wow...quite the portfolio.  Lots of biotech tickers i recognize.  :)

I'm not so sure on MRNA...even Scottrade won't let me place orders for that one without calling it in (this restriction ended up stopping me from making a wrong attempt at picking a bottom sometime ago).  You've already got plenty of RNAi exposure, but you might think about TKMR.  The stock is plumbing new lows ever since filing a lawsuit against ALNY.  As a shareholder in both ALNY and TKMR, it wasn't exactly welcome news, but I've taken the [foolish?] opportunity to add more TKMR on the current weakness.

Best of luck!...

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#11) On April 15, 2011 at 1:36 PM, Momentum21 (95.07) wrote:

mhy729 - Can't say the RNAi stuff has been fun...RXII getting whacked today. I like it when my broker cuts me off from making a bad trade... : ) That's a big reason why I use Vanguard...they save me from myself sometime...GL to you!

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#12) On April 15, 2011 at 1:58 PM, mhy729 (33.16) wrote:

Yeah I saw that...seems they used up the money from March's dilution with the acquisition so had to turn around and ask for more in less than two months (ouch).  I'll have to look more into this "new" RXII as it sounds somewhat interesting.

I don't think there's any other stock class for which the terms 'cash burn' and 'dilution' are more starkly demonstrated.  Along with trial/FDA/etc binaries, certainly makes for some wild rides.

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#13) On April 15, 2011 at 4:24 PM, Momentum21 (95.07) wrote:

Sold out of the following positions in total: 

NYT: basically flat and tired of what now appears to be more downside risk than up.

TSYS: Most likely to double tomorrow on me but I decided to make room due to lack of patience and concern over downside risk to reward.

GLCH: I made a small amount trading around but the downside on a broader correction concerns me 

A little Spring cleaning if you will.  

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#14) On April 17, 2011 at 12:54 PM, HarryCarysGhost (99.69) wrote:

What's the deal with disco, I really have no understanding of biotechs so I would never own it, but dsco has been on my watchlist ever since porte mentioined it.

Man has that been a bumpy ride.

All the best to you and your portfolio.

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#15) On April 17, 2011 at 1:08 PM, HarryCarysGhost (99.69) wrote:

Saturday Night Fever - John Travolta's (1977) Epic Walk n Epic Dance : ...

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#16) On April 17, 2011 at 1:18 PM, mhy729 (33.16) wrote:

There's been a couple of dilutive secondaries, with the latest one occurring shortly after they announced that their resubmission to the FDA would be delayed from Q1 to Q3 of this year.  zzlangerhans has a recent blog on DSCO if you're interested.  Those of us who bought in hoping for a pop with the Q1 resubmission and subsequent run-up to the FDA decision date got rather shafted.  I'm one of them (not a large position thankfully), and have decided to hold on into Q3 hoping for no further delays.  Been considering buying some more to lower my cost basis, but feel that there's still a lot of time left to do that if I still wish to, and I want a clearer picture on the status of the manufacturing issues, though indeed I'd miss the opportunity to get in at a better price if/when those problems are resolved.

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#17) On April 18, 2011 at 3:07 PM, Momentum21 (95.07) wrote:

added to the GNK position @ 8.77 (33% more)

#14 - Let's just hope that by the time DSCO has "it's day" there is something left for me. : ) 

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#18) On April 19, 2011 at 11:48 AM, Momentum21 (95.07) wrote:

added to the ANDS position @ 1.08 (50% more)

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#19) On April 21, 2011 at 3:30 PM, Momentum21 (95.07) wrote:

Sold all of my YONG position @ 5.60 +24% return...now I wait for the next "analysis" to get back in. : ) I sense one coming...

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#20) On April 21, 2011 at 5:05 PM, mhy729 (33.16) wrote:

Congrats on closing YONG with a nice profit!...looks like there's quite a number of people here who are skeptical about that one, despite the vote of confidence by TMF.

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#21) On April 26, 2011 at 12:41 PM, Momentum21 (95.07) wrote:

mhy729 - thanks man...it didn't feel like a buy and hold due to the controversy but I still side with TMF on this one. 

added to MSFT @ 26.30...it might be time for it to "get busy"

VICL just crossed the 100% return threshold for me...it's a dilemma but I think I will hold.

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#22) On April 26, 2011 at 12:59 PM, mhy729 (33.16) wrote:

Wish I had your dilemma...  :)

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#23) On April 27, 2011 at 12:01 PM, Momentum21 (95.07) wrote:

sold 25% of LOCM @ 4.65 - successful trade

sold 100% of AEN @ 1.04  - not so successful - I overstayed my visit : )

 

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#24) On May 02, 2011 at 1:26 PM, Momentum21 (95.07) wrote:

bought PACB (new) @ 10.86 

http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/11_19/b4227056590447.htm

 

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#25) On May 02, 2011 at 4:26 PM, Momentum21 (95.07) wrote:

sold 1/3 of MNTA @ 19.14 

sold 1/3 of NEXS @ 3.12

Sold all of SAYCY @ 3.40

 

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#26) On May 03, 2011 at 10:10 AM, Momentum21 (95.07) wrote:

added back shares of LOCM + a few @ 3.87 (down as much as 17% this AM)

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