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Daily Trading Plan for December 13, 2011

December 13, 2011 – Comments (0) | RELATED TICKERS: SPY

Economic Reports Due out (Times are EST): NFIB Small Business Optimism Index (7:30am), ICSC-Goldman Store Sales (7:45am), Retail Sales (8:30am), Redbook (8:55am), Business Inventories (10am), FOMC Statement (2:15pm)

Premarket Update:

Futures are moderately higher heading into the open.

Asia was down -1% overall in trading.

Europe is currently trading higher at an average 0.8%.

Technical Outlook:

For the third straight day we reversed from the previous day's action in a significant manner. With the morning's positive bias, the market is looking at making it a fourth straight day.

The most interesting development out of yesterday was the fact that the VIX was down over 2% despite the S&P dropping -1.5%. Typically the VIX would be noticeably up on such a day.

S&P dropped below the 10-day moving average yesterday and closed just above the 20-day.

The 200-day moving average continues to act as a problem for the S&P at 1262, watch for whether price can close above this level.

The 30-min chart of the S&P portrays a well-defined bull flag that we've been in since late November.

A move below 1225 on the S&P would accelerate the selling in the market from what we saw yesterday.

Trend-line off of the 7/7 highs, just above the 200-day MA on the S&P, continues to act as resistance to price as well.

Gap-up/gap-downs continue to dominate (or plague) this market and limiting intraday moves during market hours.

Note the larger downward channel that we are in as noted below.

My Opinions:

My Portfolio:

The Chart: