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alstry (< 20)

Data Getting Just Plain....INSANE!!!!!!!

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July 14, 2009 – Comments (12)

Retail sales rise better-than-expected 0.6 percent

Retail sales rise in June by largest amount since January, led by a surge in gasoline prices

?????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????

I have to repeat this just so I didn't make a mistake:

The Commerce Department said Tuesday that retail sales rose 0.6 percent last month

You can't be serious!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Are the GOVERNMENT Economists smoking green shoots??????

 

We know car sales were DOWN in June y/y!!!! Last year, Gasoline was OVER $4 a gallon!!!!!!!!!

and practically every retailer reported NEGATIVE June same store sales!!!!!!!

Target Corp. June Sales DOWN 6.2 pct

Costco Wholesale Corp. June Sales DOWN 6 pct

BJ's Wholesale Club Inc. June Sales DOWN 7.5 pct

Bon-Ton Stores Inc. Sales DOWN 8 pct

Macy's same-store sales down 8.9% in June 

Dillard's June same-store sales down 14%

Limited Brands June same-store sales fall 7.9%

The Limited June same-store sales down 12%

Children's Place June same-store sales down 12%

Destination Maturnity: June comp. sales down 10.7%

Hot Topic June same-store sales down 7.9%

American Eagle June same-store sales down 11%

Gap June same-store sales down 10%

Abercrombie & Fitch same-store sales off 32%

Kohl's Corp. -5.6 pct

Neiman Marcus Group Inc. -20.8 pct

Nordstrom Inc. -10 pct

Saks Inc. -4.4 pct

Stage Stores Inc. -12.6 pct

Cato Corp. -3 pct

The Children's Place Retail Stores Inc. -12 pct

 

The above numbers came out JUST LAST WEEK and the government reports today that retail sales are UP?????  And thousands of retailers have CLOSED since last year including Circuit City and Linens n Things and thousands of standing stores including Starbucks, Home Depot, and others.

IT IS NOW GETTING JUST PLAIN SILLY............if you are being lied to with this data, what else is false??????

Prepare...9.09 is near!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

12 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On July 14, 2009 at 9:42 AM, dickseacup (< 20) wrote:

Maybe you need to factor in the "retail birth-death adjustment."

Taking a play out of the BLS book, the Commerce Department now estimates how many retail goods wear out or break on a montly basis, necessitating replacement. This is included in the CD's approximation of retail sales.

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#2) On July 14, 2009 at 10:11 AM, abitare (30.09) wrote:

You will like this guy, he is putting out some decent stuff:

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#3) On July 14, 2009 at 10:44 AM, JTShideler (51.48) wrote:

Hey Alstry it does make sense if you factor in the increase in prices.  Looking at the report it looks like Groceries, Gasoline and other essentials are up but the big retailers and malls that you mentioned are down.  Besides the .6 percent estimate is almost within the margin of error of the survey of .5 percent.

http://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/marts_current.html

Link 

 

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#4) On July 14, 2009 at 10:55 AM, cthomas1017 (98.73) wrote:

Goodwill & Salvation Army y/y same store sales +1000% might explain the discrepancy? :o

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#5) On July 14, 2009 at 10:58 AM, alstry (< 20) wrote:

JT,

Not a chance.  Gasoline prices crashed and retailers are discounting dramatically to move inventory.

 

The problem with the data is that it is month over month vs. y/y.  No competent analyst uses month of month data in retail.  If you look at it y/y, my estimate is that total retail sales are down OVER 10% including gasoline and autos.

Redbook came out with the weekly y/y retail numbers ex autos and gas and they were negative.

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#6) On July 14, 2009 at 11:23 AM, JTShideler (51.48) wrote:

Gasoline prices are down from last year but they are higher in June then in May which is what the .6 percent is comparing to.  I agree with you that it is stupid to look at the month over month comparison but that is what they did so you have to look at the changes from May to June.  I agree with you that the y/y retail is way way down and that their .6 percent is misleading but the fact is since they included food and energy in their retail sales figures that helps explain why the number is positive and all those retail businesses are down.  I am NOT saying that the figure is NOT a dirty lie, but looking at the DATA rather then what I KNOW to be true partly explains the discrepancy.  Buying a statistic is a lot like buying an investment you have to look at the accounting.

Here is some evidence that I collected to substantiate my findings:

http://gasbuddy.com/gb_retail_price_chart.aspx?time=3

From the Bureau of Labor Statistics 

"The June acceleration in finished goods prices was broad based.  The index for energy goods jumped 6.6 percent after advancing 2.9 percent in the prior month, prices for consumer
foods increased 1.1 percent following a 1.6-percent drop in May, and the index for goods other than foods and energy rose 0.5 percent in June after edging down 0.1 percent in the previous
month."

A 6.6 percent in energy prices could help you find .6 percent growth even with a flat decline in (month over month) retail sales.

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#7) On July 14, 2009 at 11:33 AM, alstry (< 20) wrote:

JT,

On a month over month basis I have to agree....but y/y retail sales are down around 10% ex gasoline.....including gasoline the number would be much worse.

Could you imagine if they reported December Holiday retail sales and compared it to November......it would be laughable.

What is happening now is the press are simply reporting the data which suits the times rather than providing a fair analysis to the public.....the question is why and what is going to happen to the nation as a consequence of stupid reporting.

There is always a consequence for being stupid, the question now is what??????

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#8) On July 14, 2009 at 11:42 AM, alstry (< 20) wrote:

Here is the complete numbers from the Census Bureau:

The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for June, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $342.1 billion, an increase of 0.6 percent (±0.5%) from the previous month, but 9.0 percent (±0.7%) below June 2008. Total sales for the April through June 2009 period were down 9.6 percent (±0.5%) from the same period a year ago. The April to May 2009 percent change was unrevised from 0.5 percent (±0.3%).

Retail trade sales were up 0.8 percent (±0.7%) from May 2009, but 10.0 percent (±0.7%) below last year. Gasoline stations sales were down 31.6 percent (±1.5%) from June 2008 and motor vehicle and parts dealers sales were down 14.1 percent (±2.5%) from last year.

 

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#9) On July 14, 2009 at 12:01 PM, JTShideler (51.48) wrote:

"What is happening now is the press are simply reporting the data which suits the times rather than providing a fair analysis to the public.....the question is why and what is going to happen to the nation as a consequence of stupid reporting."

Agree with you 100%.  I find it funny that THEY spent most of 2006-2008 telling everyone that a recession was coming when the economic data showed continued growth (fundamentally we were still on shaky ground but things were humming), and now THEY spend most of their time telling people that the recession is ending when its not.  The reason WHY?  My guess is that the people that control the media are making a fortune as people forget you can make money when the market goes UP or DOWN.  I think the best investment strategy is just to do the opposite of what all the media folks are telling you to do.

While I believe that personal and national will can overcome a lot of rough times. . . there is no way that the power of positive thinking will get us out of this if the government keeps doing what they are doing. People need to Wake up and Quick.

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#10) On July 14, 2009 at 12:59 PM, ChannelDunlap (< 20) wrote:

Alstry, I don't remember if I ever got around to posting my reply yesterday, but I still have a problem with comapring things to a year ago.  A year ago we were still way up there, not as way up there as say 1.5 years ago, but still, pretty far up there.  In March, when we're comparing numbers to the terribly low figures from this past March, will you be saying we're in a full-swing bull market recovery bruhaha?  I doubt it, somehow.  And yet, comparing to unreasonably HIGH figures is just fine.

JT - Wait a minute, you're picking on "THEM" for saying a recession was coming when indicators didn't show it... and THEY WERE RIGHT.  Now you're picking on them for saying it's over while the indicators don't show it.... Are you seeing a trend here?  I am.

I think the best investment strategy is just to do the opposite of what all the media folks are telling you to do.

Because the worked so well for that '06-'08 period you reference?

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#11) On July 14, 2009 at 4:05 PM, JTShideler (51.48) wrote:

Google News 2005-2008

S&P 500 2005-2008

The negative news about the Economy Started growing with increasing frequency in 2005 and building steadily through 2008.  However the S&P 500 would increase an additional 25% and Unemployment which started the year at 5.2 would fall as low as 4.4% in March of 2007.

In July of 2007 the first of three Minimum Wage Increases was passed by the new democratic majority and took effect in July of 2007, 2008 and the third in 2009.  Unemployment rose and this news with the potential for a recession was repeated day in and day out   Google News

As people started to lose their jobs this resulted in more foreclosures, less consumer spending which led to a retraction in production as inventories went up which meant more layoffs which meant more unemployment and more foreclosures.  With the bubble bursting on property values the whole ponzi scheme of buying and selling fell apart and banks got stuck with huge losses and eventually lead to the meltdown.

The Negative News caused people to be more restrictive with their spending to prepare for the worse which only increased the chance of a recession actually happening.

Now they want the economy to start recoverying but its not as easy to convince people things are getting better then to convince them that things are getting worse.  Check out the Headlines since April Google News

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#12) On July 17, 2009 at 4:34 PM, topsecret09 (86.38) wrote:

 Smoking "GREEN SHOOTS"....... LOL......... Now that IS funny.......!!!!!!!!!      Their definitely smoking something,not sure If Its green or white though...... LOL..........  Jim        http://www.time.com/time/business/article/0,8599,1910819,00.html

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