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Vet67to82 (< 20)

Data Mining - with your OWN spreadsheets

Recs

183

April 22, 2010 – Comments (9) | RELATED TICKERS: C , CUR , PRI

Base on Friday to Thursday period data closing prices, I knew today would be a down day! 

  Thanks to my OWN spreadsheets I can "data mine" the High, Low, Open, Close, Volume, etc using columns and formlii to look for patterns and trends IN THE NUMBERS ... that can be put to the statistical test for "significance."   The results can be charted ... a picture is worth a thousand words ... and the numbers further analysed.

  Take the fact that in 2010, we've had 50 "Up-days" in the DJIA and 25 "Down-days."  The daily average upside, to date for the  Up-days has been ( Previous DJIA closing price x 1.00349 ) and the daily average downside has been  ( 1.00235 ).  So for today, based on the daily  average numbers, I had an expection of the DJIA close as between  11155.91 "Hi" and 11090.92 "lo".  But, my call on the down-day came  from the "weekly" section of the spreadsheet.  

   Fun with math ... 

The average weekly Friday to Thursday, has an average gain of +48.11 points, despite the worst weekly loss (537.50) for the January 22, 2010 period.  Just to keep the 48.11 point average, considering last Friday's 125.91 point decline .... we would have had to have a +260 point Up-day today.  Statistical probability of that occuring ... ZERO.     
 
The best weekly Friday to Thursday 2010 close, has been +258.15 points for the period ended Feb 19, 2010.   

Would you like to know what I ALREADY know about closing prices for the DJIA for FRIDAY?

Raise your hands ... oops, ...  can't see that ... hmmmm!  I have a target in mind for "rec's" and if I hit my target I'll post the  Monday to Friday stats and "outlook" next. 

 

9 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On April 22, 2010 at 2:34 PM, Vet67to82 (< 20) wrote:

I will continue to post the ever changing weekly "Friday to Thursday" closing numbers  here ... so you might want to follow this post.

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#2) On April 22, 2010 at 2:38 PM, anticitrade (99.58) wrote:

I suspect your number of recs may be negatively impacted by the new direction of the market for the day.  However, I will rec if you can answer this question:

What advantage do you have over the institutional investors who are crunching this same set of numbers?  Are you smarter?  Do you have a unique approach?  Do you love math more?

In my limited experience, if you can't state and defend your advantage, you probably don't have one.

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#3) On April 22, 2010 at 2:41 PM, anticitrade (99.58) wrote:

I want to soften my comment a little.  I am impressed you are doing these calculations, and your score indicates you may be on to something.  I just want to know how you theoretically defend your indication of a market inefficiency.

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#4) On April 22, 2010 at 2:45 PM, Vet67to82 (< 20) wrote:

Sorry, the "downside" average should read 1.00 minus 0.00235 or 0.99765 ...  Soooo, the formula ( Previous DJIA closing price x 0.99765 ) would represent the "projected" average close on a "down" period for the Friday to Thursday period ending today. 

Keep in mind,  the close today, will change these numbers ... rendering a new data set for projecting the week thru next Thursday.   

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#5) On April 22, 2010 at 3:12 PM, Vet67to82 (< 20) wrote:

Excellant question, antictrade. 

  Rarely does anyone do their own homework.  All too often, people invest or trade based on emotion ... what they hear from family, friends, co-workers, news on the net, etc  .... all of which may have their own agenda. 

 By doing my own homework, I "minimize" the emotional part that  makes us buy stuff  ( stocks, etc ) we shouldn't and hang on to stocks we should have sold.  Emotion is not efficient, nor is it a "valid" investing tool ... and you can't get rid of it entirely.

  Do you see any instutional investors " sharing" the results of their work ... (smiling) ...?.  NOPE.  The institutional guys and gals are also trying real hard to eliminate emotion from the investing /trading equation.  So, it is my money, your money, and after all is said and done  ...  who'll take care of MY money ... better than me?  or YOUR money better than you?    

 

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#6) On April 22, 2010 at 9:58 PM, Vet67to82 (< 20) wrote:

  Well, as promised,  I'm back to add in the "preliminary"  outlook for next Thursday's DJIA close based on this Thursday's close. 

To recap the DJIA closed at:

 Th  4/15/2010   11,144.57   +21.46

  Fr  4/16/2010   11,018.66    (125.91)
  Mo  4/19/2010    11,092.05   +73.39
  Tu  4/20/2010   11,117.06    +25.01
  We  4/21/2010    11,124.92    +7.86
  Th  4/22/2010   11,134.29     +9.37

So, for the weekly period (Friday to Thursday ) ... the DJIA was off (down) only 10.28 points  ...   This reduces the weekly average for ( Fr to TH close )  time period from +48.11 points to +44.46 points.   

 ** Microsoft reported earnings after the close ... based on the report MSFT beat the street ... but the after market wanted MORE and sold MSFT off ... the last trade just before 8:00 PM EST was at $30.98.  Current futures point to a down open tomorrow, but today the DJIA was down as many as 108 points right after the open, closed up 9 points ... the strength of the DJIA recovery points to a positive end of day tomorrow AND next week.   
  

 

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#7) On April 23, 2010 at 2:33 AM, Vet67to82 (< 20) wrote:

So for later today ...the projected

"Up-day" closing prices ...

  DJIA  11169.94

S&P500  1,213.22

  ...  and if the market can't get past the Greek debacle, as well as the MSFT earnings report then the projected "down-day" closing prices ...:

  DJIA  11108.11

 S&P500  1,205.40

 .... more to follow later today.   Good night all.

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#8) On April 23, 2010 at 10:33 AM, Vet67to82 (< 20) wrote:

Once I have my spreadsheet checked ... and double checked for bugs in the formulii, etc ... I can save it as a template for similar sector, industry stocks ....

So, it's a lot of work, initially,  but not as much as you'd think ... using templates, helps you to compare apples to apples ... sector to sector, industry to industry, etc.   

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#9) On May 10, 2010 at 1:45 PM, Bad2dBone99 (< 20) wrote:

+1 rec

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