Data Mining - with your OWN spreadsheets
Base on Friday to Thursday period data closing prices, I knew today would be a down day!
Thanks to my OWN spreadsheets I can "data mine" the High, Low, Open, Close, Volume, etc using columns and formlii to look for patterns and trends IN THE NUMBERS ... that can be put to the statistical test for "significance." The results can be charted ... a picture is worth a thousand words ... and the numbers further analysed.
Take the fact that in 2010, we've had 50 "Up-days" in the DJIA and 25 "Down-days." The daily average upside, to date for the Up-days has been ( Previous DJIA closing price x 1.00349 ) and the daily average downside has been ( 1.00235 ). So for today, based on the daily average numbers, I had an expection of the DJIA close as between 11155.91 "Hi" and 11090.92 "lo". But, my call on the down-day came from the "weekly" section of the spreadsheet.
Fun with math ...
The average weekly Friday to Thursday, has an average gain of +48.11 points, despite the worst weekly loss (537.50) for the January 22, 2010 period. Just to keep the 48.11 point average, considering last Friday's 125.91 point decline .... we would have had to have a +260 point Up-day today. Statistical probability of that occuring ... ZERO.
The best weekly Friday to Thursday 2010 close, has been +258.15 points for the period ended Feb 19, 2010.
Would you like to know what I ALREADY know about closing prices for the DJIA for FRIDAY?
Raise your hands ... oops, ... can't see that ... hmmmm! I have a target in mind for "rec's" and if I hit my target I'll post the Monday to Friday stats and "outlook" next.