David Rosenberg's research is now free and everyone should sign up for it
As some of you may know, Merril Lynch's excellent chief economist David Rosenberg recently left the company for a Canadian firm named Gluskin Sheff.
Rosebnerg is fairly bearish, but he has been consistently right about the direction of the economy. Plus he's a really prolific writer, turning out reports like there's no tomorrow.
Anyhow, I recently found out that Rosenberg's research reports are now available for free to anyone who registers with Gluskin Sheff. I am now perusing Rosenberg's eight page "Breakfast with Dave" report that I just received in my inbox.
I encourage everyone to head on over to Gluskin Sheff and sign up for Rosenberg's research. Here's a link for anyone who's interested: Economic Reports FeaturingDavid Rosenberg .
Here's a sample from this morning report so that you can see what Rosenberg's work is like:
WHAT HAPPENED OVERNIGHT
The big news was the move by S&P to cut UK’s credit outlook to “negative”
from “stable”. Sterling, the FT-SE and gilts are all paying the price this
morning. (Gilts also undermined by a solid set of mortgage approval and retail
Don’t think for a second that the same cannot happen to the USA at some
point judging by the massive runup in government debt and debt guarantees.
(We see that House Financial Services Committee Chairman Barney Frank is
pushing for a plan that would have the federal government reinsure municipal
bonds.) Indeed, now that Californians spoke yesterday — voting down 5 of the
6 budget tightening proposals by an average of 65% — the interventionist U.S.
government is very likely going to focus its attention on the Golden State.
(George F. Will wrote a brilliant editorial on this file on page A11 of today’s
Investors Business Daily — citing President Obama’s “dependency agenda”.)
In any event, California now faces a $20 billion cash crunch and it is unsure
how it gets resolved without federal backstops. This is happening at a time
when the U.S. fiscal deficit to GDP ratio, at 13%, is at the highest level since
WWII, and debt measures are not far off the levels that touched off
downgrades in Japan and Canada in the not-to-distant past. Gold will very
likely gain in stature as a safe-haven because it stands to reason that ratings
attention will turn to the USA. These concerns are already highlighted by a
trade-weighted dollar that has dropped to a two-month low and now
languishing below its 200-day moving average for the first time in a year (and
it should be duly noted that 82% of China’s $2 trillion in FX reserves are in
dollars — it is highly unlikely that this share is going to do anything but decline
in the future). Bullion is in a clear bull market, and looks set to break out — it
has moved above $940/oz this morning. We don’t claim to be chartists, but
the chart looks very good indeed (despite the slump in jewellry demand to 20-
year lows and the so-called supply boom coming from the recycling wave).