DEATHwatch List
March 29, 2012
– Comments (5) |
RELATED TICKERS: RSHCQ
, BB
, BBY
Famously (in my own mind) I declared RIMM a deadman walking in June 2011. See here.
My thesis was that over summer 2011 companies would figure out that Microsoft Exchange could now provide all the security to Android and iPhones that had 'till then been RIMM's sole distinguishing (or, frankly, positive) feature. And businesses would switch. And it did. And they did. This call was primarily anectodal, based on what my company was doing: we went from a 95% RIMM shop to a 95% iPhone shop as soon as iPhones became available -- it was nearly instantaneous. And so today's report indicates that RIMM continues to spiral the drain.
Many of us have watchlists. But do you have a "Deathwatch List" (TM)? Here's one for me:
RIMM (my exact call above was a buy-or-be-bought out call)
BBY (closing 80 stores now, hmmm. But earnings "beat expectations." Hmmm. Toast
RSH (I forcast secular decline; they have no reason to exist that I can tell, no moat, no competitive advantage at all; they also have an outdated and archaic name)
SHLD (I think they'll eventually either go b/k or otherwise shutter all stores, and this company will live on only as a holding company for the Diehard and Kenmore brands, which will be more widely distributed and marketed)
Any other candidates?
One I have been considering (it would have been on this list if I had written it two years ago) is Garmin. However, state "safe driver" legislation preventing people from using cellphones whole driving has proven a huge boon for this company, since most people would want to use GPS apps while driving. (Query why using a GPS app is any less dangerous than monkeying with a GPS device while in the car, but the laws are what they are.) And they are more diversified than people think they are.