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Declining RIMM

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November 22, 2011 – Comments (1) | RELATED TICKERS: BBRY

Location: Chk999's CAPS Blog

Author: Chk999

Most companies don't last forever. At some point, a company doesn't have attractive places to put earnings, so it should start returning them to shareholders either via dividends or stock repurchases. Later in the process the business will actually start to decline. At this point the business can be a great cash cow because there isn't any real capex and all the profits beyond normal maintenance can be returned to shareholders. But not that many businesses handle this stage very well.  

The problem is that it is pretty hard at an organizational level to admit that the business is in irrevocable decline and manage it accordingly. There is a strong belief that the CEO is paid to grow the business, so it is very easy to spend the profits on bad acquisitions or joint ventures that destroy value not create it. 

I think RIMM is entering this decline phase. While the Blackberry was widely known as the Crackberry and was the must have accessory for high powered corporate types at one point, it is now last weeks lasagna. Everyone now has an iPhone or a Droid and can do more things than you can with a Blackberry. The attempts by RIMM to move into the smarter phone business don't seem to be working out that well. I think the writing is on the wall. 

RIMM currently has 6.6B in net tangible assets, which means it is trading for about 1.4 times tangible assets. If the assets and cash were returned to shareholders in an orderly manner over about five years or so, this could be a decent buy. But I suspect that the institutional imperative will strike and that most of that money will be spent on stuff worth a lot less than what they will pay for it.

So I'm staying away.

1 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On November 23, 2011 at 12:20 AM, NajdorfSicilian (99.87) wrote:

You *think* they're in the decline phase? Market share drop of smartphones from like 55% to 19% wasn't enough for you? ;)

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