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alstry (36.12)

Deflation..Sales, Wages, Prices

Recs

13

January 08, 2009 – Comments (3)

WAG] Walgreens to cut about 1,000 managers, 9% of total

Cytec cuts 2008 outlook, slashes jobs as economy sinks

Saks same-store sales drop almost 20% in December

Abercrombie & Fitch December same-store sales down 24%

American Eagle's December same-store sales fall 17%

Macy's cuts outlook, closes 11 stores as December sales dip

Cardinal Health cuts fiscal 2009 adjusted earnings outlook

WWW] Wolverine World Wide sets job cuts

NWY] New York & Co. to cut 12% of field management staff

Lenovo warns of loss; 11% job cut set; shares tumble

Notice the distress is no longer industry specific.  It is spreading wider and wider and policy decisions are not addressing the underlying problem.  People are simply running out of money and cannot afford to meet their monthly obligations.  Individuals and business are spending less and more and more are losing their jobs.

As I have stated repeatedly.  We don't have a credit crisis....we have a borrower crisis.  They are too few left who are qualified to borrow.  And those that are.....don't want to borrow.  You can give people a few hundred dollars, but that only puts a bandaid on an aterial bleed.  And the blood is starting to flow in the streets......with unfortunately much more blood on the way.

Its funny, when I put forth my unemployment predictions...many say its alarmist.  The math ain't hard folks.  If company after company is cutting 10% or more of its workforce, and we are already at 7% unemployment.....we are really close to 17% umemployment.  Just wait for next month when cities and states will start contracting workforces.

And no printing is not the solution.  If your keep your job but everything you spend doubles......yoiu are in the hole deeper than when you started.

I was forecasting a trillion dollar deficit last year....now we are talking two trillion.  If you think this is inflationary, you are right.....if you think it will result in inflation......you fail to understand the impact of creation of credit on money supply over the past five years.

If 25% of retailers close......many commercial loans will fail......as a result many banks will fail.

If you think we are near the bottom, I suggest you refill your oxygen tank.....NOW!!!!!!

Prepare.....don't despair.

3 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On January 08, 2009 at 10:17 AM, snakeyd (< 20) wrote:

I have a couple of thoughts on the inflation /deflation debate. 

With 70% of the GDP being consumer spending, what does that say when stores sales are down 25% even with an unemployment rate of 6.7%?  What happens once these job losses kick in?

Also, there is talk with the printing presses running full bore, banks are seemingly hoarding ther revenues.  Anybody ever consider the fact maybe the banks can't loan it out?  With the unwinding of the unregulated derivitive market, maybe the printing presses are filling a bucket with a gaping hole?

Inflation is excess money chasing product.  I see the capacity to spend droppin drastically. 

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#2) On January 08, 2009 at 11:56 AM, jesusfreakinco (29.03) wrote:

The inflation / deflation arugment is more about the USD and import prices than unemployment and supply/demand economics within the US.

Our inflationary fate is in the hands of China... Do they continue to buy t-bills and hold up our dollar or do they back off causing interest rates to rise and the USD to fall.

My two cents...

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#3) On January 09, 2009 at 5:39 PM, jeffduby (21.81) wrote:

In california, gov. terminator has just imposed a manditory 4 day work week and overtime freeze for the 20,000 professional engineers. It will soon turn to layoffs. Things are going to get a lot worse.

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