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alstry (< 20)

DemonDoug-Alstry is MUCH MORE Bearish



June 05, 2008 – Comments (3)

Demon, I couldn't make this stuff up if I tried.  It is simply the facts and Alstry is all about facts and only the facts. And somepeople still want to build spec homes in CA??????

And  as far as you looking 20 years out, you probably don't have to look much beyond November.


From Blogs Ben Jones'

“As the housing slowdown and credit crunch metastasized through the economy, new vehicle sales in the state fell almost 19 percent in 2008’s first quarter compared to 2007’s first quarter, the California Motor Dealers Association said.”

“‘My family has owned this dealership for 71 years,’ said Bill Brunelli, director of operations at Central Chevrolet in Fremont. ‘I’ve been in the business all my life; I remember the oil embargo of the 1970s, and I’ve never seen anything like this. We used to sell 200 cars a month five years ago; now we may sell 20 or 30.’”


From ABC “It’s a sign of the times — some very hard times. Bankruptcy filings are up, and in Orange County they are skyrocketing. One development Eyewitness News visited in Orange County is supposed to be a sprawling collection of new houses and townhomes.”

“But the only thing sprawling these days across the empty fields are the weeds. The real estate market is withering.”

“‘You can probably drive around most of Southern California and see real estate development projects that have, frankly, just stopped,’ said bankruptcy attorney Jim Bastian.”

“Bankruptcy filings in Southern California are skyrocketing. The latest year-to-year numbers for April show bankruptcies in L.A. County are up 92 percent. In Riverside County, they’re even worse at 125 percent. In Orange County, statistics show bankruptcies are up a staggering 153 percent.”

“‘It’s going to get worse before it gets better,’ said Bastian. ‘Most of the people that I’ve talked to, and if you talk to experts in the industry, they’ll tell you it might be 2010 or 2011 before we see prices get back to where they were even three or four years ago.’”

“‘People who should not have been in this situation, where they’re buying a $400,000 or $500,000 house and having a mortgage payment of $4,000 or $5,000 per month, when they’re only making $25,000 or $35,000 a year,’ said Bastian.”

The Contra Costa Times. “Under water. Upside down. Negative equity. No matter the terminology to describe the erosion of home equity in the East Bay, the conclusion is inescapable: A local housing sector that once was remarkable for how high it could soar has plunged into the depths.”

About two out of three East Bay homes that were bought since 2005 are now worth less than the mortgages on the houses, according to a study.”

From Sacramento Landing Blog:

From the Associated Press:

Robert Lindsey was not surprised by new data last week that showed new home sales have fallen more than 40 percent from their peak almost three years ago. He can tell from his company's bank account. "We're literally losing money every month," said Lindsey, general manager of Signature Drywall Inc., in Sacramento, which installs drywall in new homes and apartments in the Sacramento and San Francisco areas. In 2005, the firm raked in some $30 million in sales. Last year, sales were less than half that, and this year Lindsey hopes he can make $8 million. "It's kind of like bleeding to death," he said.
In California alone, subcontractors have laid off, on average, up to 80 percent of their staff, according to the California Professional Association of Specialty Contractors in Sacramento, which mostly represents firms engaged in new home construction projects...Head hunters say workers have fled California for Utah, Texas and other states where there's a better chance to get work in homebuilding.

3 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On June 05, 2008 at 8:36 PM, alstry (< 20) wrote:


In reviewing our string below, I think we were talking apples and pork.  I was saying the majority of retailers, over 50%, reported negative same store sales comps.  I think you were saying that the majority of retailers beat analyst's expectations.

If this is the case, we are both right as analysts projected negative same store sales comps for a number of retailers where the negativity was less negative than expected but negative nonetheless if you know what I mean.

Further, let me teach you an old retailers trick.  Shut down, major renovate, or change locations of those stores with really negative numbers to reset that location so its not included in the quarterly figures.

I would try to rumble with you but we simply agree on too many issues.  Take care.

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#2) On June 06, 2008 at 12:56 AM, DemonDoug (31.28) wrote:

Yah we can't really rumble; the only thing i've really disagreed with you on wasn't a disagreement but just wanted to make sure you had the facts straight.  I am an avid reader of the HBB, although I never post on there.  Not surprised that retailers do creative accounting and shenanigans. 

Since this thread has my name, I figured I'd throw out my basic predictions, and see where you are at.

Oil - 200/barrel by 2010, chance to be 300/barrel.

Housing - Earliest bottom in 2012.  Latest bottom in 2030.  Likely a bottom around 2020 and flatlining for 10 years, unless there is hyperinflation

Gold - 2500/oz.

S&P - 1100

Dow - 10,000, or likely lower due to inclusion of BAC in the index. 

(the last 3 we'll put a time frame at within the next 5 years)

Mad Max scenario - virtually unlikely

Nuclear attack on US mainland - virtually unlikely

Hyperinflation - 4% chance of happening

Devaluation of the dollar by 50% or more in the next 5 years - very likely

A bubble in guns and ammo - very unlikely

National Legalization of cannabis due to budget shortfalls - 25% chance

Amount of public HB's going bk in the next 5 years - min 4, max 13

And I do believe SPF will go bk before WCI.  Yes, it is absolutely insane that there are still people trying to build spec homes.  This is why the bottom of housing might not be in for another 12 years, there is still lending, building, and busines going on like the bubble is still on.

btw feel free to rumble (of course we do agree that cooked books and credit and lending and so much other crap is bad), i'm not sensitive nor do i care about any emotion that might bleed through any posts.  it's kind of fun for me. :) 

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#3) On June 06, 2008 at 1:54 AM, alstry (< 20) wrote:

Quite frankly I am not sure  how this plays out.  Hyperinflate or  depression.  Seems pretty straighforward.

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