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alstry (35.49)

Depression Guaranteed??????

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May 13, 2009 – Comments (6)

U.S. April import prices up 1.6% vs 1% expected

Retail sales tumble 0.4% in April vs. expected gain

Collapsing sales against rising import prices.....a terrible combination.

Sales in March were revised lower to a 1.3% decline from 1.2% reported earlier

Expect lots MORE NEGATIVE revisions going forward.........why do you think U6 unemployment was so low??????

Foreclosures run at record rate

Week-to-week mortgage applications down 8.6%

Forclosures continue skyrocketing to record levels month after month, home prices keep crashing quarter after quarter, and now mortgage applications down?????

If you can't get record sales with crashing prices......where will sales come from????

Next...you should not be surprised of loan defaults EXPLODE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Prepare for a Depression potentially MUCH WORSE than The Great Depression.....Let's hope Alstry is wrong......but remember, Alstrynomics is all about being right!!!!!!!!!!!!!

A Depression is a 10% decline in GDP...........

U.S. retail sales down 10.1% in past year

Are we already there???????  The consumer is 2/3 of the economy.........Like usual...Alstrynomics generally distills the news months before the mainstream media connects the dots.......sometimes years.....:)

6 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On May 13, 2009 at 9:31 AM, farmnut1985 (< 20) wrote:

Alstry,

 I saw the retail sales numbers this morning and I just had to come find your blog for today because I knew you would have something to add.  As I told you before I may not always agree with what you say, to clarify I agree with you in general just maybe not all of the aspects you are arguing, but we are in for a real trip. 

It's like the stock market has paid for the fuel and a tune up but didn't get the brakes fixed.  So now, after trying to charge up out this mountain valley that the economy  is in, we ran out of gas, and since we didn't fix the brakes we are starting to roll back down the mountain.  Just hope there are some runaway truck ramps on the way back down and we can hit one and do damage control.

Keep up the good posts, I don't always have time to look up the news on all the economy posts every day and its nice to just look up your blog for the day and see what has "changed" or what the government wants us to believe has changed.

 

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#2) On May 13, 2009 at 9:38 AM, alstry (35.49) wrote:

Alstrynomics is not about people agreeing with stated positions....it is simply about being right and providing people adaquate notice about what may be down the road.

Alstrynomics is all about investors helping investors BEAT THE MARKET and score LOTS OF POINTS ON CAPS!!!!!!!

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#3) On May 13, 2009 at 9:52 AM, jddubya (< 20) wrote:

Uh oh - "...investors helping investors BEAT THE MARKET..." ???

You'll need some additional blogging to back this one up.  The only consistent advice I've seen is pay down debt, accumulate cash, and have fun.  How about you toss us some additional market wisdom?  Just how does one BEAT THE MARKET during these times of volatility?

Off the topic here - I think you've mentioned you play poker.  I think I'd have a ton of fun playing at your table.  I like to play - winning would be nice, but I tend to have fun no matter how much I lose (or win).  : - )

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#4) On May 13, 2009 at 9:58 AM, alstry (35.49) wrote:

jd....

Alstry loves helping players score CAPs points.... 

just look at Alstry's CAPS score since he started playing....over 400 public, open, and obvious picks for anyone to see....in real time.

but remember, never count your money WHILE sitting at the table...and I still have a ways to go to 100.

Alstry loves it on top......but if she is attractive enough......he will take it any way it comes.

If my hunch is right....we are facing very difficult times....always keep your sense of humor....it will help you make more cents out of things that don't make any sense.

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#5) On May 13, 2009 at 11:49 AM, jesusfreakinco (29.58) wrote:

Alstry,

Glad you finally woke up to the inflation risks.  Falling dollar, pissed off Chinese and you expected deflation to remain?  Got gold?  China does :)

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#6) On May 13, 2009 at 11:52 AM, alstry (35.49) wrote:

I still expect price deflation to remain over all....for a while.

 

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