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alstry (36.24)

DEPRESSION REALLY KICKING IN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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July 09, 2009 – Comments (9)

A depression is a 10% drop in GDP from peak to trough.

We have seen new home sales drop 80%.

New car sales down 50%.

Alcoa's sales down over 40%.

Retail sales down double digits.....same with Hotel and Airline revenues.

and now Technology sales are slowing dramtically as evidenced by this press release tonight:

Lawson Software Q4 revenue $186.2 mln vs $233 mln

The last two areas holding up the economy are government spending and health care.....and the two are tied at the hip as half of all health care spending comes from the government.

As government receipts evaporate, so will spending.  Since government spending is half of GDP, any slowdown in spend will have a dramatic impact on GDP.

The only green shoots you should be holding are those that you can smoke, otherwise you are proabably halucinating on some really rotten stuff.  My suggestion, switch to Bloodys with some lime as a kicker, it provides a little extra twist from lemon, but if you throw in one of each, all the better with a little Old Bay around the rim.

9.09.........Only Alstrynomics and hopefully you are prepared.

 

 

9 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On July 09, 2009 at 5:04 PM, biotechmgr (35.59) wrote:

I was tiring of your superfluous exclamation points and almost did not bother reading you today. Then I happen across your green shoots blast. That is epic, so I will rec in spite of the excessive punctuation.

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#2) On July 09, 2009 at 5:13 PM, StatsGeek (29.36) wrote:

One man's housing tale

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#3) On July 09, 2009 at 5:19 PM, alstry (36.24) wrote:

More evidence from Buffett:

Warren Buffett tells CNBC that consumer sales by Berkshire Hathaway companies have remained "very, very soft" in recent weeks.

In a taped interview with our Julia Boorstin today (Thursday) at Herb Allen's Sun Valley media conference, Buffett says he'll know when things pick up because he gets constant "updates on sales from his companies.

Buffett says the economy is in a very "tough period" right now.

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#4) On July 09, 2009 at 5:27 PM, minduza (< 20) wrote:

It’s 100% depression already; most economists know it just nobody wants to go against government current. I saw some graphs that John Mauldin presented in his letter two weeks ago. They show that it is as bad as Great Depression or even worse. It's just impossible to explain 20, 30, 40 or 80% drops in some sectors as just a recession. If it wasn’t for money printing it would be 2X times that, but they just postponed it.

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#5) On July 09, 2009 at 6:02 PM, prose976 (< 20) wrote:

The only problem here is that the boom was artificial, so the "depression" is actually just an overdo adjustment.

Welcome to reality.  We were all fooled, but sure did enjoy the ride.

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#6) On July 09, 2009 at 6:16 PM, ralphmachio (26.83) wrote:

I think 9/09 will only be the beginning.(IF AT ALL, nothing could happen on that day!  Nothing happened on 6/06/06)  We have all of 2010 and 2011 to begin that bull market that never actually happens...  It may take until late 2011 before anyone is ready to see it for what it is, and maybe not even then.  

Alstry, who does anything according to dates of numerological significance, anyway?  Why? 

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#7) On July 09, 2009 at 7:16 PM, OneLegged (< 20) wrote:

The prediction of a "hard date" makes one wonder if Alstry may be a player in whatever it is that may transpire on that paticular date (or not).  Whatever it is that the Big A is refering to, I am guessing, is fraud related.  With 12.1 TRILLION on the line there is fraud as sure as I am typing this.  Like flies are attracted to dung fraud goes hand in hand with obscene quantities of legal tender.

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#8) On July 09, 2009 at 8:41 PM, DownEscalator (< 20) wrote:

prose976 - the market rise during the last decade was artificial.

The people having their homes foreclosed and their jobs slashed is real.

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#9) On July 10, 2009 at 11:52 AM, cudakhan (< 20) wrote:

As the old saying goes, although there is an economic definition of a recession there isn’t one for  a depression. Except, when your neighbor loses his job it’s a recession, but when you do it’s a depression.  (only in this economic climate you lose your house, car and dog)

Can anybody tell me if my wife’s surgeon is able to repossess her saline implants?

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